Let’s assume Mateo is an .800+ OPS, 5+ WAR shortstop — now what?

[Yossarian]

4 hours ago, Billy F-Face3 said:

Or possibly the starting shortstop for the NL in the All Star Game. If you get what I'm sayin.

Is a team that is one of the top teams in the league and gearing up to make a playoff run in the business of trading an All Star level player at a premium positron in the middle of s season?

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

15 minutes ago, Yossarian said:

Is a team that is one of the top teams in the league and gearing up to make a playoff run in the business of trading an All Star level player at a premium positron in the middle of s season?

For me it would have to be an overpay from the other team to even consider trading Mateo right now. Given Mateo’s track record teams aren’t going to just assume he’s become the next Xander Bogaerts, but with gold glove level defense.

So in that case Orioles are better off holding onto Mateo for now. 

[Yossarian]

4 minutes ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

For me it would have to be an overpay from the other team to even consider trading Mateo right now. Given Mateo’s track record teams aren’t going to just assume he’s become the next Xander Bogaerts, but with gold glove level defense.

So in that case Orioles are better off holding onto Mateo for now. 

I agree.  Now is not the time to trade a guy like Mateo.  He is like a winning lottery ticket with the way he is playing right now.   The value he brings versus the salary is exactly the thing a team in the Orioles position this year is looking for.  The O's have him - let's ride this wave.   Mateo is playing incredible baseball right now at a premium position.  It would be nuts to trade him.   I really wonder if either Gunnar or Holliday will ever get to this level of play in their careers.

[Alasdaire]

48 minutes ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

For me it would have to be an overpay from the other team to even consider trading Mateo right now. Given Mateo’s track record teams aren’t going to just assume he’s become the next Xander Bogaerts, but with gold glove level defense.

So in that case Orioles are better off holding onto Mateo for now. 

What do you mean by his track record? He has fewer than 1000 plate appearances.

[LA2]

1 hour ago, Alasdaire said:

What do you mean by his track record? He has fewer than 1000 plate appearances.

Sort of what he meant; he probably intended to write something more along the lines of "lack of track record."

[Billy F-Face3]

2 hours ago, Yossarian said:

Is a team that is one of the top teams in the league and gearing up to make a playoff run in the business of trading an All Star level player at a premium positron in the middle of s season?

I dunno. Maybe that's a question Jorge Lopez could answer?

[Alasdaire]

2 hours ago, LA2 said:

Sort of what he meant; he probably intended to write something more along the lines of "lack of track record."

I can agree with that phrasing, which I do think has a different connotation. I've made this point before, but it's not like Mateo has been putting up middling numbers in the majors for years. Last year was his first season getting everyday playing time.

[maybenxtyr]

2 hours ago, Billy F-Face3 said:

I dunno. Maybe that's a question Jorge Lopez could answer?

Way different circumstances in my opinion. Last years team was enjoying some unexpected success. This year they are one of the best records in baseball. 

[Jagwar]

Tell you what... if the O's had traded Mateo last offseason, and he was putting up a  OPS for another team, this place would be totally hacked off. 

[LA2]

1 minute ago, Jagwar said:

Tell you what... if the O's had traded Mateo last offseason, and he was putting up a  OPS for another team, this place would be totally hacked off. 

This is the main problem with all the complaints about not doing enough trading last off-season: Had we dealt from our wealth of young infielders, Mateo was probably the one most likely to depart--and for a fraction of his current worth. (Still doesn't explain the inverse though: the spend on Frazier--although I haven't been displeased with his performance, unlike Irvin's.)

[ShoelesJoe]

6 hours ago, LA2 said:

Sort of what he meant; he probably intended to write something more along the lines of "lack of track record."

Mateo's track record should include the fact that at 21 years old he was considered a top prospect in a very deep Yankee minor league system that also included Gleyber Torres, Aaron Judge, and Jordan Montgomery. His current production would probably not have been considered out of the realm of possibility had NY kept Mateo and handed him the starting SS job in 2019, instead of giving it to Torres. 

If Mateo's hot streak isn't a hot streak at all, but something like his new normal, then he might be considered the position player equivalent of Jake Arrieta – a well regarded prospect who didn’t meet expectations when first brought up to the majors, and took a couple of years to find his true level of excellence with another team. That sort of thing has happened a thousand times in MLB, and might be happening here.

 

[LA2]

10 minutes ago, ShoelesJoe said:

Mateo's track record should include the fact that at 21 years old he was considered a top prospect in a very deep Yankee minor league system that also included Gleyber Torres, Aaron Judge, and Jordan Montgomery. His current production would probably not have been considered out of the realm of possibility had NY kept Mateo and handed him the starting SS job in 2019, instead of giving it to Torres. 

If Mateo's hot streak isn't a hot streak at all, but something like his new normal, then he might be considered the position player equivalent of Jake Arrieta – a well regarded prospect who didn’t meet expectations when first brought up to the majors, and took a couple of years to find his true level of excellence with another team. That sort of thing has happened a thousand times in MLB, and might be happening here.

 

This is a good point--the only problem with it is that he was in the Oakland system by 2018. He didn't perform well there until he repeated at AAA in 2019--and just ended up getting traded again! So it's not just the Yankees, but the A's and Padres' systems (or their roster management problems) as well that judged him as lacking and let him fall to us.

Edited May 1, 2023 by LA2

[Sports Guy]

Few things not being mentioned here:

1) Age. Mateo is 28 towards the end of June. Certainly not old but not “baseball young” either.

2) Salary. He’s only making 2M this year but he’s arb 2 next year and if he has a big year, that number jumps a lot and it will be even more the next year.

3) Service time. He has 2 years left. He will be 30 by the time the service time is up. Are you extending him into his 30s?  MIers traditionally decline as they get on the wrong side of 30. Speed will start to decline as well.  

How much would you want to bank on Mateo bucking those trends? 
 

While you could afford to go year to year on him for the time being, the reality is that you have to make decisions. You could hold off Holliday a little while next year but if he keeps up his pace, you will only be able to hold him off for so long.

So, if Mateo ends up having a big year (or even just a very solid year), do you risk an extension? Do you risk him falling back to the pack some and losing value?  Or do you get rid of him at what would likely be peak value? 
 

Knowing ownership and knowing the cheaper spending philosophy Elias has and knowing he took Holliday at 1 specifically because he felt he would be a SS, I think all of that combined says they would rather pay league minimum prices for above average production. 
 

Obviously a lot of things can happen this year to determine the course of action for 2024 but I do think these 3 things will factor in big time.

Edited May 1, 2023 by Sports Guy

[waroriole]

9 hours ago, Yossarian said:

I agree.  Now is not the time to trade a guy like Mateo.  He is like a winning lottery ticket with the way he is playing right now.   The value he brings versus the salary is exactly the thing a team in the Orioles position this year is looking for.  The O's have him - let's ride this wave.   Mateo is playing incredible baseball right now at a premium position.  It would be nuts to trade him.   I really wonder if either Gunnar or Holliday will ever get to this level of play in their careers.

I would trade a winning lottery ticket if someone offered me what it was worth. I’d also trade it for 75-80% of its value if the numbers look smudged and I thought the ticket examiner might say it’s worthless, you get nothing. 

Edited May 1, 2023 by waroriole

[RZNJ]

20 hours ago, ThomasTomasz said:

He had the speed and defense calling card.  Did they know last year he would develop into top five defensive player, sticking at one position?  Possibly, but they probably knew he would be good enough there defensively.  

As for this year, he is swinging a lot less which was the book on him dating back to his time as a prospect.  If you could wrangle him into being more selective, chances are it would be to his benefit.  And as it turns out, so far it is.  Can this new approach stick for six months?  That’s the question. 

In other words, time will tell.