What do you think Mateo’s final 2023 OPS will be?

[Otter]

1 hour ago, Jammer7 said:

Sure, I agree with that. He has the strength to be an .800 guy. I want to see if he can maintain the discipline and show an aptitude for the daily mental side of hitting. He gives away too many at bats right now. 

He does have every tool you could ever want in a SS, but will he ever be consistent with the hit tool?  I'm skeptical, but hopefully he does improve his plate discipline and chase % enough to get him over a .700 or so.  Then we'll have the nice problem of too many infield prospects with nowhere to play them, and can use them to acquire that starting pitcher...

[OriolesMagic83]

8 hours ago, Jammer7 said:

Ha! Not worried about his defense. He is pressing right now, trying to do too much. He just needs to take what the game gives him. That is part of the learning process. 

I hope fans are reminded by watching Gunnar struggle that this game is hard. The jump to MLB is huge. Adley made it look a lot easier than it is. I understand the fans calling for Westburg and Ortiz, but I think it should be a last resort this year. They are very talented players, absolutely. But Mateo is one of the most gifted and exciting players in MLB today. Those don’t come along very often. We will know a lot more about Mateo’s aptitude after this year. 

I think Westburg and Ortiz are ready.  Hopefully they'll get a shot somewhere.  If not the O's, another team via trade. 

[wildcard]

If the O's keep winning with Mateo at SS he will stay there.

[Sports Guy]

10 hours ago, wildcard said:

If the O's keep winning with Mateo at SS he will stay there.

Depends on his defense. His defense is still really good but not sure it’s as good as it was last year. 
 

In terms of OAA, last year, he was 18th overall and his overall OAA was 11.
 

Right now, he is 12th, amongst SS, and 93rd overall with an OAA of 1 (the list of 1 OAA starts at 66th place, so the 93rd may not be his actual ranking).

To the left, last year, his OAA was 2. This year it’s -2. 

Now, it’s still a SSS of games at this point, although the sample size is getting more substantial.  
 

Other defensive stats, which don’t seem to be as good as OAA, like him a little more. I think it’s likely there is some kind of a drop off, which I feel was to be expected. For me, the question was always how much would the drop off be. 
 

As of right now, even with a potential drop off, he’s still very good but not sure he’s in the GG conversation today.

 

[sportsfan8703]

Mateo’s defense has been nasty. He had several great plays Friday that were overshadowed by the throw to home, which was the right decision, and the Mullins big game. 

[sportsfan8703]

I also think that hip injury has literally slowed him down a little bit. Sure… he’s playing, but he’s not dropping bunts down and he’s not stealing bases like he was. 

[OriolesMagic83]

Sports Guy is looking really smart about now.  There was that month that Mateo looked like an MVP candidate just like David Newhan.

[Roll Tide]

25 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

Sports Guy is looking really smart about now.  There was that month that Mateo looked like an MVP candidate just like David Newhan.

Don’t inflate his head….it’s big enough already.

[RZNJ]

30 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

Sports Guy is looking really smart about now.  There was that month that Mateo looked like an MVP candidate just like David Newhan.

The blind squirrel analogy comes to mind.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Depends on his defense. His defense is still really good but not sure it’s as good as it was last year. 
 

In terms of OAA, last year, he was 18th overall and his overall OAA was 11.
 

Right now, he is 12th, amongst SS, and 93rd overall with an OAA of 1 (the list of 1 OAA starts at 66th place, so the 93rd may not be his actual ranking).

To the left, last year, his OAA was 2. This year it’s -2. 

Now, it’s still a SSS of games at this point, although the sample size is getting more substantial.  
 

Other defensive stats, which don’t seem to be as good as OAA, like him a little more. I think it’s likely there is some kind of a drop off, which I feel was to be expected. For me, the question was always how much would the drop off be. 
 

As of right now, even with a potential drop off, he’s still very good but not sure he’s in the GG conversation today.

 

I’m not as sold on OAA as the sole arbiter of good defense as you are, but I think the overall analysis is fair.  For example, the one hit Wells allowed last night was a Carlos Santana grounder that I think Mateo might have gotten last year.  

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I’m not as sold on OAA as the sole arbiter of good defense as you are, but I think the overall analysis is fair.  For example, the one hit Wells allowed last night was a Carlos Santana grounder that I think Mateo might have gotten last year.  

And btw, the hip could be part of the issue. There’s no doubt there. But his throwing has been pretty poor all year and some level of defensive regression was very likely.

I mean, we all thought Manny would be a dominant defender after his 2013 season and he has never been quite at the level again. Defense does peak but yet people just assumed he would continue at a level he has never shown before.

[Jammer7]

5 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

And btw, the hip could be part of the issue. There’s no doubt there. But his throwing has been pretty poor all year and some level of defensive regression was very likely.

I mean, we all thought Manny would be a dominant defender after his 2013 season and he has never been quite at the level again. Defense does peak but yet people just assumed he would continue at a level he has never shown before.

It’s still very early to jump to ANY conclusions. This is uncharted territory for him, and I think he is hearing footsteps. He has never been the incumbent at SS until. He sees all the talent lining up behind him. He may just be going through something physical we don’t know about as well. To me, he’s pressing. Might just need a reset for a day or two. 

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, Jammer7 said:

It’s still very early to jump to ANY conclusions. This is uncharted territory for him, and I think he is hearing footsteps. He has never been the incumbent at SS until. He sees all the talent lining up behind him. He may just be going through something physical we don’t know about as well. To me, he’s pressing. Might just need a reset for a day or two. 

Im not jumping to anything. These were my thoughts in December.

I think he is and will Be an above average guy. The question, for me at least, is it elite/GG/platinum glove level like last year.

Edited May 14, 2023 by Sports Guy

[Jammer7]

6 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Im not jumping to anything. These were my thoughts in December.

I think he is and will Be an above average guy. The question, for me at least, is it elite/GG/platinum glove level like last year.

I understand, and that is fair to question based on a lack of track record. He has been a bit erratic, and I think he is pressing. I was just saying that it’s a bit early to say this 6 weeks, especially the last two, are indicative of what he will be the rest of the year.

 

Edited May 15, 2023 by Jammer7

[Sports Guy]

Does he end the year over 700?