A Realistic Pitching Ace And What It Will Take to Acquire Him

[Bemorewins]

13 minutes ago, EddeeEddee said:

Hard to say.  Funny, before you were criticizing me for saying it would take a huge trade to get Cease.  Now you think my speculative trade is too skimpy on the O's part.  You could be right.  Maybe I'm all over the map now, but Cease's slow start would have to factor in.  If the Orioles can play on any White Sox fears that Cease's slow start may continue, maybe the O's can get him without having to give up Henderson, Holliday or Cowser.  Even so the White Sox could say they want, say Urias or even Austin Hays in a deal -- or one of the better relievers.  Who knows?

LOL... It's all in fun to discuss!

I doubt that they would want anything but prospects if they are rebuilding (which they would be doing without Cease). I think that it is reasonable to speculate that they would ask for ONE of Gunnar, Grayson, or Holliday to headline the package. One of them plus 1 to 2 top 100 and another 1 to 2 from our 10-20 range is about as steep as the price gets. 

The only one that I would even consider is Gunnar from the list of top 3 guys. Not because I don't love him and believe in his talent. But I just think he would be the easiest to live without. Holliday has a very similar profile to him and we could adequately staff 3B now with Urias or Westburg and in the future with Mayo.

I will say this, if we are to get a big piece, it's most likely going to take us giving up something good in return. Just not everything like the previous post with 4 top 100 including a former and future #1.

[EddeeEddee]

5 minutes ago, ShoelesJoe said:

Sure they would. I would if I was in their place, and so would you. You're the GM of a sinking ship organization who has but two prospects in the top 100, and none in the top 30. All of a sudden the GM of the organization with the best minor league system in baseball, with 9 top 100 prospects (and maybe 12-13 if truth be told) calls you asking about your most valuable starting pitcher. What's going to be your starting position for a trade negotiation? I'll tell you what that position is going to be -- you're going to do everything in your power to pillage and rape that guy's minor league system. Picture Al Pacino in Heat screaming "GIVE ME ALL YOU GOT!" Any GM who wouldn't start out by asking for too much doesn't deserve to be a GM. 

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1145pQpl1Lk

Yeah, this is the same point I made in the other thread.  The White Sox will ask for the moon as an initial starting point if they are getting lots of calls about him.  They still have him for more than 2 years.  But based on a shaky start to the season you do have to wonder if they may be more willing to negotiate if they fear he may underperform throughout the season.

[Bemorewins]

6 minutes ago, ShoelesJoe said:

Sure they would. I would if I was in their place, and so would you. You're the GM of a sinking ship organization who has but two prospects in the top 100, and none in the top 30. All of a sudden the GM of the organization with the best minor league system in baseball, with 9 top 100 prospects (and maybe 12-13 if truth be told) calls you asking about your most valuable starting pitcher. What's going to be your starting position for a trade negotiation? I'll tell you what that position is going to be -- you're going to do everything in your power to pillage and rape that guy's minor league system. Picture Al Pacino in Heat screaming "GIVE ME ALL YOU GOT!" Any GM who wouldn't start out by asking for too much doesn't deserve to be a GM. 

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1145pQpl1Lk

Asking for that means that you don't want to trade for the player. That would be like us asking the Yankees for Judge or the Braves for Ocuna Jr. That is not a serious inquiry.

Dylan Cease and truthfully no player is really worth that suggested package. If I'm Elias, I'm hanging up and moving on and saying 'next'. It would almost be an insult to his intelligence for the CHI SOX to suggest something so ridiculous.

The language and analogy that you use is a little strong for a baseball team, but to each their own.

[owknows]

I've read this thread closely, and I have concluded that a significant portion of it was contributed from behind a dumpster under the dim light of a crack pipe.

[deward]

29 minutes ago, EddeeEddee said:

It hasn't been that bad when you consider the Orioles developed guys like Eduardo Rodriguez and Josh Hader.  They just happened to trade them away for underwhelming rentals.  They also developed Kevin Gausman and Jake Arrieta, two flawed late bloomers sure, but still ultimately successful pitchers.  Some might argue the problem with Arrieta was really a coaching problem.

I guess The O's should do like the Rays and trade for young pitching instead of trading it away.  

I wouldn't consider Andrew Miller underwhelming. He pitched very well for the O's down the stretch in '14, as well as in the playoffs. No one would have any regrets about that trade if that run had ended with a championship. 

[Jagwar]

If Elias won't draft pitching, and he won't trade prospects for TOR starters, how will the O's ever have a WS caliber rotation?

[sportsfan8703]

We realistically need Ohtani, Giolito, and Ed Rod. 

[purplepittabread88]

how long until Means comes back? and do we view him as high 2? or is he good enough to be a 1

[EddeeEddee]

1 hour ago, Jagwar said:

If Elias won't draft pitching, and he won't trade prospects for TOR starters, how will the O's ever have a WS caliber rotation?

It's hard to imagine him not trading for pitching.  In fact, I think it is the expressed strategy that they will.  Just might not be as soon as we would like.

[EddeeEddee]

1 hour ago, owknows said:

I've read this thread closely, and I have concluded that a significant portion of it was contributed from behind a dumpster under the dim light of a crack pipe.

Want a hit? 

[orioles22]

We can replace Gunnar with Westburg. I don't think Westburg brings back a top starter, but Gunnar could. I'd offer Henderson, Stowers and Bradish.

[ScGO's]

Why not target Shane Bieber? I think he's a TOR. Free agent after next season.

[Alasdaire]

I wonder if the front office wants to see what they have with the pieces they acquired last year before they make any moves. 2022 will probably be the last time for awhile that the system has a net increase in talent. Not only were we sellers at the deadline, but we also had the second-highest draft bonus pool in history. 

Excluding Holliday and the international signees, we added Povich, McDermott, Cano, Beavers, Fabian, and Wagner. There might be years going forward where we only add one or two guys like that.

But it's not clear who they are yet since they haven't even been here for a year. Allowing a bit of time to see what we've got could make those guys assets themselves or at least informs your choice of packaging prospects we've had for longer.

[Bemorewins]

57 minutes ago, Alasdaire said:

I wonder if the front office wants to see what they have with the pieces they acquired last year before they make any moves. 2022 will probably be the last time for awhile that the system has a net increase in talent. Not only were we sellers at the deadline, but we also had the second-highest draft bonus pool in history. 

Excluding Holliday and the international signees, we added Povich, McDermott, Cano, Beavers, Fabian, and Wagner. There might be years going forward where we only add one or two guys like that.

But it's not clear who they are yet since they haven't even been here for a year. Allowing a bit of time to see what we've got could make those guys assets themselves or at least informs your choice of packaging prospects we've had for longer.

Should the goal be to stockpile prospects? At what point is the stock full enough where you say let’s use the excess to build a World Series contender for multiple year? 

The Astros have Zero top 100 prospects now. I think they wouldn’t trade any number of prospects for their last 6 years of success include 3 WS appearances and 2 titles.

[Alasdaire]

1 minute ago, Bemorewins said:

Should the goal be to stockpile prospects? At what point is the stock full enough where you say let’s use the excess to build a World Series contender for multiple year? 

The Astros have Zero top 100 prospects now. I think they wouldn’t trade any number of prospects for their last 6 years of success include 3 WS appearances and 2 titles.

Oh for sure. You basically have to trade prospects in order to contend in baseball.

What I'm saying is that we had a pretty significant influx of talent last year, but it's not clear who they are yet. Beavers/Fabian/Wagner could make Cowser/Kjerstad more expandable than they are now, but that's a tough call to make when they're just out of college. McDermott/Povich/Cano/Johnson have been in the minors, but that's not the same as having them under the team's supervision.

They probably have a pretty good sense for the trajectory of guys like Basallo or Mayo even though they're young, because they've been working with them for a few years now. But the group from last year still seems like an unknown.