HELL of a catch by Kyle

[SemperFi]

I brought this up in an thread from yesterday but it probably should be here.  I had an ex player  (OF) tell me there is a big transition in fielding-it was much harder to read the ball and wind patterns in a stadium with decks than in the minors.  The thing that scares me about Stowers is not just the angles and jump it's the occasional lackadaisical play.

When the runner tagged and advanced on him yesterday he wasn't correctly lined up with the ball and the throw sailed following his body.  The difference between Acuna's fundamentals and his were startling.  It's a brief snapshot but to an old ex coach it scares me-fundamentals are telling.  Players tend carry over their offensive struggles, and their head is not in the game defensively-hopefully that is the case here.

[AnythingO's]

9 hours ago, RZNJ said:

He meant within the same game.  He's got 2 singles in 21 AB's.  

Oh, I know, but the point is that he has shown the ability to adjust and he needs ABs to do that. The next wave of COFs are not far behind and we need to find out what he can or can't do now before that happens. Otherwise we risk moving on from a prospect that could come back to bite us. I think ME wants to know what he's got.

[banks703]

2 hours ago, AnythingO's said:

Oh, I know, but the point is that he has shown the ability to adjust and he needs ABs to do that. The next wave of COFs are not far behind and we need to find out what he can or can't do now before that happens. Otherwise we risk moving on from a prospect that could come back to bite us. I think ME wants to know what he's got.

Right. I'm not saying that he's Yaz or Christian Walker but consistent ABs and playing the field to learn the stadiums is the only way to know what you have with Stowers as a player and specifically as a COF. 

 

I make these comments not as a Stowers advocate. I am kind of indifferent on him as I have not seen enough of him to form an opinion either way and must defer to Tony and the others who are more familiar with his miL career. All of this to say simply, he doesn't look completely lost out there or a liability to me. @SemperFi makes a great point about knowing the stadiums. How can he know angles and wind patterns if he's never played out there?

 

I'd hesitate to compare anyone to Acuna right now. Before the knee, Acuna was the best player in the N.L. in my eyes. The dude is a legitimate 5-tool player who exceeds at alllll of the phases of the game. 

 

 

[Big Mac]

Based solely on my eye test, he looks much better defensively in the OF than he did in his brief stint last season.  Let's also remember that by every advanced metric, our corner OF defense is atrocious so the bar is pretty low for him out there.

I put zero weight into his offensive results over 21 sporadic at bats and his K/BB numbers are fine.  I'd keep finding ways to run him out there 4-5 games per week and see what we have. 

[Sports Guy]

On 5/7/2023 at 9:58 AM, Frobby said:

Like I said, I think Stowers’ awkward routes lead to his catches seeming more difficult than they’d be for an OF who takes better, more confident routes.  

Remember the catch he made at the wall on April 3?   People raved about that one, but Statcast rated it a ball with a 95% chance of being caught based on distance from the fielder’s initial position and hang time.  https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=7d201ba4-61b1-4417-8055-9ddac06bc664

The one last night was rated a 99% catch probability.   Here’s the play. https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=9d83c6f1-2bbf-4dd4-a073-97d1a47636ee

Now, Statcast just judges difficulty based on distance from the fielder and hang time.  It doesn’t look at the angle the fielder has to take, or whether the wall is coming into play.   So, I’m not suggesting that those two plays actually get made 95% and 99% of the time.  But I am suggesting that they weren’t as difficult as Stowers made them look.

Compare this catch from McKenna last night (the announcer mistakenly identifies him as Stowers).  Same degree of difficulty as Stowers’ play, but McKenna makes it look much easier. https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=60c0629b-d1cb-47e2-90cc-87735bf28100

 

 

 

Lots of this can probably be said about Hays too.

[Sports Guy]

On 5/7/2023 at 9:58 AM, Frobby said:

Like I said, I think Stowers’ awkward routes lead to his catches seeming more difficult than they’d be for an OF who takes better, more confident routes.  

Remember the catch he made at the wall on April 3?   People raved about that one, but Statcast rated it a ball with a 95% chance of being caught based on distance from the fielder’s initial position and hang time.  https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=7d201ba4-61b1-4417-8055-9ddac06bc664

The one last night was rated a 99% catch probability.   Here’s the play. https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=9d83c6f1-2bbf-4dd4-a073-97d1a47636ee

Now, Statcast just judges difficulty based on distance from the fielder and hang time.  It doesn’t look at the angle the fielder has to take, or whether the wall is coming into play.   So, I’m not suggesting that those two plays actually get made 95% and 99% of the time.  But I am suggesting that they weren’t as difficult as Stowers made them look.

Compare this catch from McKenna last night (the announcer mistakenly identifies him as Stowers).  Same degree of difficulty as Stowers’ play, but McKenna makes it look much easier. https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=60c0629b-d1cb-47e2-90cc-87735bf28100

 

 

 

Lots of this can probably be said about Hays too.

[Tony-OH]

On 5/7/2023 at 9:58 AM, Frobby said:

Like I said, I think Stowers’ awkward routes lead to his catches seeming more difficult than they’d be for an OF who takes better, more confident routes.  

Remember the catch he made at the wall on April 3?   People raved about that one, but Statcast rated it a ball with a 95% chance of being caught based on distance from the fielder’s initial position and hang time.  https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=7d201ba4-61b1-4417-8055-9ddac06bc664

The one last night was rated a 99% catch probability.   Here’s the play. https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=9d83c6f1-2bbf-4dd4-a073-97d1a47636ee

Now, Statcast just judges difficulty based on distance from the fielder and hang time.  It doesn’t look at the angle the fielder has to take, or whether the wall is coming into play.   So, I’m not suggesting that those two plays actually get made 95% and 99% of the time.  But I am suggesting that they weren’t as difficult as Stowers made them look.

Compare this catch from McKenna last night (the announcer mistakenly identifies him as Stowers).  Same degree of difficulty as Stowers’ play, but McKenna makes it look much easier. https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=60c0629b-d1cb-47e2-90cc-87735bf28100

 

 

 

Good post. You're getting a hang of statcast, nice.

It's worth noting that while Stowers does not have enough "competitive jumps" to have 2023 numbers show up yet, he really has not been challenged. Every ball that has dropped in his way had a 99% or more chance of not being caught and his hardest catch was 95%.

He did however have a 98.5 MPH throw which was probably his throw yesterday.

[Frobby]

13 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Good post. You're getting a hang of statcast, nice.

It's worth noting that while Stowers does not have enough "competitive jumps" to have 2023 numbers show up yet, he really has not been challenged. Every ball that has dropped in his way had a 99% or more chance of not being caught and his hardest catch was 95%.

He did however have a 98.5 MPH throw which was probably his throw yesterday.

I still wish you could just look at the Gamecast and pull out the catch probability, instead of having to hunt through an array of dots and try to guess which one might be the play you saw last night.  It’s going to be harder to do as the season progresses and the number of dots continues to grow.  

I’m guessing the 98.5 mph throw was the one where he pegged out a runner at the plate from LF a few days back.   That was a helluva throw.  
 

[Tony-OH]

17 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I still wish you could just look at the Gamecast and pull out the catch probability, instead of having to hunt through an array of dots and try to guess which one might be the play you saw last night.  It’s going to be harder to do as the season progresses and the number of dots continues to grow.  

I’m guessing the 98.5 mph throw was the one where he pegged out a runner at the plate from LF a few days back.   That was a helluva throw.  
 

Agreed. Not sure why game cast doesn't give the full picture like throw velocities and catch percentage.

[Just Regular]

The one thing with the OF catch probabilities that still bugs me some is that if Distance and Time are the only inputs, doesn't that reduce it to a Sprint Speed proxy?

It might be that's okay - if Cedric uses 70th percentile speed and a good jump to make a 5-star catch, but Jazz Chisholm has 95th percentile speed and no clue how to play CF or Kyle Stowers has 40th percentile speed and does the macarena before tracking a ball, I guess it manifests in OAA, and in the aggregate the metric can be effective.

It just feels a bit too simple, as good OF play is more than running fast.     

[Frobby]

18 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

The one thing with the OF catch probabilities that still bugs me some is that if Distance and Time are the only inputs, doesn't that reduce it to a Sprint Speed proxy?

It might be that's okay - if Cedric uses 70th percentile speed and a good jump to make a 5-star catch, but Jazz Chisholm has 95th percentile speed and no clue how to play CF or Kyle Stowers has 40th percentile speed and does the macarena before tracking a ball, I guess it manifests in OAA, and in the aggregate the metric can be effective.

It just feels a bit too simple, as good OF play is more than running fast.     

I think jump and burst certainly factor in, as well as raw speed.   I think the biggest flaw is it doesn’t account for the angle an outfielder has to take to the ball, or where the wall is.  A ball hit directly over the outfielder’s head is not the same as a ball hit directly parallel to the outfielder on one side, or in front of him, even if the hang times and distances from the fielder are the same.  

[SemperFi]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

I think jump and burst certainly factor in, as well as raw speed.   I think the biggest flaw is it doesn’t account for the angle an outfielder has to take to the ball, or where the wall is.  A ball hit directly over the outfielder’s head is not the same as a ball hit directly parallel to the outfielder on one side, or in front of him, even if the hang times and distances from the fielder are the same.  

 I get jealous watching how deep guys play now.  I would much rather come in on a ball than go back-as Frobby notes so much more difficult to judge balls directly over your head.  I had a reacurring dream of coming in on a ball and throwing to the plate for years after my playing days ended.  

On another note the OF defense has been my biggest dissapointment so far.  Defensive lapses put so much more strain on the pitching staff-extra pitches and outs are a burden they can't afford!!

[emmett16]

On 5/7/2023 at 6:51 PM, Ohfan67 said:

There's another set of variables to consider: Did you hold your breath while the ball was in the air? Did you loudly exhale and perhaps say or even shout something positive? Thank you for sharing the analyses, but another component of fan reaction/assessment is how much did the catch matter and how worried were you when the ball was hit. I yelled, "oh no!" when the ball was struck and something like, "thank God!" when Kyle made the catch.  

 

p.s. there's probably a significant interaction between the two factors...the actual catch difficulty and fan anxiety before and relief after the catch. 

OF are taught to run with their mouths closed so that their jaw doesn’t bounce causing their eyes to bounce .  All the details matter. 

Edited May 9, 2023 by emmett16

[banks703]

1 hour ago, emmett16 said:

OF are taught to run with their mouths closed so that their jaw doesn’t bounce causing their eyes to bounces .  All the details matter. 

This is why I chewed two pieces of gum on each side of my mouth. ALWAYS. Always four pieces at a time. 

[Ohfan67]

3 hours ago, emmett16 said:

OF are taught to run with their mouths closed so that their jaw doesn’t bounce causing their eyes to bounce .  All the details matter. 

Ooof. I was joking about how fans reacted while watching the play. Fans. Not outfielders.