Anatomy of the O’s blown saves (2023)

[banks703]

YC has been VERY human the last two weeks or so. Has the clock struck midnight on him? 
 

A shutdown power lefty at the back end of the pen sure would be nice. 
 

These blown saves are really piling up two months into this season (duh) for what now, 15 total resulting in nine losses? As good as the pen’s numbers are, the blown games is beyond alarming.

 

How do they fix it?

 

[DirtyBird]

1 minute ago, banks703 said:

YC has been VERY human the last two weeks or so. Has the clock struck midnight on him? 
 

A shutdown power lefty at the back end of the pen sure would be nice. 
 

These blown saves are really piling up two months into this season (duh) for what now, 15 total resulting in nine losses? As good as the pen’s numbers are, the blown games is beyond alarming.

 

How do they fix it?

 

There is no reason for Cano to come in for 1 out and back the next inning.

Letting Baumann pitch a second inning would have avoided the need for that.

Also, it is worthless to have Perez on the roster. Complete dead weight. Is there ever a situation you want to bring that guy in?

[SilentJames]

8 hours ago, Frobby said:

6/6:  Tough one tonight.  Entering the game with a 3-2 lead in the 8th, Yennier Cano walked the leadoff hitter, who was hitting .136.   Then he didn’t do a good job of holding the runner, who stole 2B on a mediocre throw by Adley (but I’m not sure a good throw would have gotten him).   Then Cano allowed a run-scoring single to a .206 hitter.   The O’s went on to lose in 10 innings, 4-3.  Ouch.

Yeah, I mean it was just his 4th walk issued all year. That one gets chalked up to "it happens." 

[Aristotelian]

8 hours ago, DirtyBird said:

There is no reason for Cano to come in for 1 out and back the next inning.

Letting Baumann pitch a second inning would have avoided the need for that.

Also, it is worthless to have Perez on the roster. Complete dead weight. Is there ever a situation you want to bring that guy in?

Baumann was shaky in his inning. Cano came in for Coulombe who was also shaky. With a RHB coming up, Cano is the guy there and he got a big out. He is an efficient pitcher so most of the time he can get 4 outs in the pitches it takes most guys to get 3. It always looks like there is a better way after the fact but in the moment I felt very good about Hyde's decisions.  

Hyde's strategy appears to be to keep "A Team" guys to 1 inning unless absolutely necessary, which lets them be available for the next game as long as they don't pitch back to back. This way the A Team is guaranteed to be available at least twice every series. Baumann is on the A Team, a guy that Hyde wants to have on hand if they get a lead. 

[SilentJames]

9 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Baumann was shaky in his inning. Cano came in for Coulombe who was also shaky. With a RHB coming up, Cano is the guy there and he got a big out. He is an efficient pitcher so most of the time he can get 4 outs in the pitches it takes most guys to get 3. It always looks like there is a better way after the fact but in the moment I felt very good about Hyde's decisions.  

Hyde's strategy appears to be to keep "A Team" guys to 1 inning unless absolutely necessary, which lets them be available for the next game as long as they don't pitch back to back. This way the A Team is guaranteed to be available at least twice every series. Baumann is on the A Team, a guy that Hyde wants to have on hand if they get a lead. 

Yeah, even looking more human Cano's human is still very good. 

[glenn__davis]

The blown save due to a leadoff walk is the most frustrating of blown saves.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, glenn__davis said:

The blown save due to a leadoff walk is the most frustrating of blown saves.

I'd counter with the blown save after the IBB.

[foxfield]

9 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'd counter with the blown save after the IBB.

I'd counter with the blown save after the IBB of a MFY.

[DirtyBird]

34 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Baumann was shaky in his inning. Cano came in for Coulombe who was also shaky. With a RHB coming up, Cano is the guy there and he got a big out. He is an efficient pitcher so most of the time he can get 4 outs in the pitches it takes most guys to get 3. It always looks like there is a better way after the fact but in the moment I felt very good about Hyde's decisions.  

Hyde's strategy appears to be to keep "A Team" guys to 1 inning unless absolutely necessary, which lets them be available for the next game as long as they don't pitch back to back. This way the A Team is guaranteed to be available at least twice every series. Baumann is on the A Team, a guy that Hyde wants to have on hand if they get a lead. 

Baumann was shaky? Why, because he lost a batter when he got away from his fastball?

Yes, Cano came in for Coulombe because Baumann wasn’t brought back for a 2nd inning. 

Is it easier for 3 relievers to have good games on the same night, or 4 to do the same?

[bpilktree67]

The organizational strategy is to have most bullpen guys throw no more then 25 pitches.  There not going to change their philosophy on that strategy as they have data that appenently shows that is the best method for managing bullpen.  So i see no point in getting upset when they pull someone that has thrown around 20 pitches to start an inning or gets in trouble and is right around 20 pitches.   The problem last night was the inability for the offense to do anything, we should not be counting on guys like Hicks, Lester, and O'Hearn to carry the offense.   The core guys need to start producing as pretty much everyone other then Hays and Mulins has been at least slightly disappointing this season from Adley, Mountcastle,  Urias, Santander, Henderson Mateo.  The offense seems to be ok when they are behind but if they get a lead of a run it seems they never add any runs and puts lots of pressure on the bullpen.  

 

Cano is still been very good but he has had some issues with lefties lately and the big problem i see is that everything is outside to them and they are leaning over the plate and just selling out on the fact he will not go inside to them.  The change can be a dominant pitch with the fade away from them but you have to work inside here and there or they will start cheating away and that is exactly what they are doing.  

[Aristotelian]

49 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

Baumann was shaky? Why, because he lost a batter when he got away from his fastball?

Yes, Cano came in for Coulombe because Baumann wasn’t brought back for a 2nd inning. 

Is it easier for 3 relievers to have good games on the same night, or 4 to do the same?

Fair enough, I forgot he inherited the other runner, but he did have a walk. I don't think it is inherently easier for three to outperform four and I can see the logic of wanting to keep your A Team available for tomorrow. 

The next inning was starting with a LHB. Perfect situation for Coulombe. If they extend Baumann, the alternative in Hyde's system is going to be to skip Coulombe and being in Cano earlier. Like it or not, Hyde believes in matchups and 3-4 batters each. Cano just didn't deliver and that's going to happen. We still have a great chance to win if Mateo gets that bunt down. 

[HelenaEngineer]

4 hours ago, glenn__davis said:

The blown save due to a leadoff walk is the most frustrating of blown saves.

When that leadoff walk is to a batter hitting .130 (3-23) who is also a career .238 hitter in the minor leagues, it is very frustrating. You might walk a Yelich rather than give in to him, but I would think a middle/middle fastball on 3-2 would be worth the risk for a hitter like Perkins leading off.

 

[Frobby]

Since the last time I updated this on June 1, the Orioles have had 24 save opportunities and saved 15, a 63% save rate.  That's slightly improved from the 56% save rate as of June 1.   Overall, the bullpen has 34 saves in 56 chances, a 60% save rate.  Here's a a summary of the 9 that were blown since June 1.

June 6:  Yennier Cano entered the game in the bottom of the 8^th with the Orioles leading the Brewers 3-2.  Cano walked Blake Perkins leading off the inning, allowed him to steal 2B, and then a one-out single from Brice Turang tied the score at 3-3.  The O’s eventually lost in 10 inning, 4-3.

June 24: Felix Bautista entered the game in the top of the 9^th inning with the O’s leading Seattle 4-3.   With two outs, he allowed a solo homer to Mike Ford of all people, tying the game.   Foutunately, the game went into extra innings, Mike Baumann held Seattle scoreless in the 10^th, and Ryan McKenna hit a 2-run walk-off homer, as the O’s won 6-4.

July 3: Cano entered in the 7^th inning with the O’s leading the Yankees 3-2, with runners on second and third and one out.  He induced a grounder on the first batter that resulted in a tag out at the plate, with the other runner advancing to 3B.   Cano then uncorked a wild pitch to tie the score at 3-3.  Cano finished the inning without further damage, then allowed a leadoff single in the 8^th.  Danny Coulombe relieved him and allowed a single and a three-run homer, and the O’s lost 6-3, with Cano taking both the blown save and the loss.

July 7: Mike Baumann entered the game in the bottom of the 7^th, one out and a runner on 2B, O’s leading the Twins 1-0.  He immediately allowed a game-tying single and had to be relieved by Danny Coulombe later in the inning, who avoided further damage.   The game went to extra innings and the O’s scored 2 runs in the top of the 10^th, with Felix Baustista getting the win after pitching the 9^th and 10^th, allowing only one walk, which later was erased on a caught stealing.   O’s win, 3-1.

July 17: Bryan Baker entered the game in the 6^th inning with runners on 1^st and 2^nd with nobody out, the O’s leading the Dodgers 4-2.  He retired the first two batters but then allowed a walk and a grand slam homer to Chris Taylor, to put the O’s behind 6-4.  That’s how the game ended and Baker was tagged with both the blown save and the loss.

July 20: Cano entered in the 7^th inning with runners on 1^st and 2^nd with nobody out, Tampa down 3-1.  Cano gave up a bases clearing double to Yandy Diaz to tie the score at 3-3, but managed to escape further damage.  The game went to extra innings and the O’s scored in the 10^th on a Colton Cowser sacrifice fly, with Bautista getting the win with 2 perfect innings in the 9^th and 10^th.

July 22: Pitching only his second game in an Oriole uniform, Shintaro Fujinami entered in the bottom of the 8^th with the O’s leading Tampa 5-3.   He walked the first two batters, threw a wild pitch to advance them to 2^nd and 3^rd, then induced a run-scoring ground out.  After striking out Harold Ramirez, Fujianami allowed a run-scoring single by Randy Arozarena to tie the score at 5-5, and was pulled from the game.  Cionel Perez got out of the inning with a strikeout, the O’s scored a run in the top of the 9^th on a Ryan O’Hearn single, and Felix Bautista pitched a 1-2-3 9^th to earn the save, with Perez getting the win.   O’s win 6-5.

July 24: Baker entered the game with two outs in the 8^th with the O’s up 2-1 on the Phillies, runners on 1^st and 2^nd.  He allowed a game-tying single to Nick Castellanos, but Bryce Harper was thrown out at the plate trying to score the go-ahead run from 1B.  The O’s regained the lead in the 9^th on a Colton Cowser double, and Perez pitched a scoreless 9^th for the save.   Baker got a blown save but also was the winning pitcher, despite not retiring a batter.  O’s win 3-2.

July 25: Cano entered the game with the O’s leading 2-2 in the 9^th, with Felix Bautista unavailable.  He retired Trea Turner on a ground out, allowed a sharp single up the middle to Bryce Harper, and struck out Nick Castellanos for the second out.  Then he allowed a game-tying double to Bryson Stott, a ground single to JT Reamuto on a play that Jorge Mateo should have made, and then a game-winning single to Alec Bohm, as the O’s lost 4-3 on a walk-off.   Cano took both the blown save and the loss.

So, of the 9 blown saves since June 1, miraculously the O’s won 5 of them.   On the season, the O’s 23 blown saves have resulted in only 12 losses.   The O’s have won 9 of the blown save games, and there were 2 where the O’s had two blown saves in the same game.  Having tracked these before, I can tell you that it’s highly unusual to have a loss/blown save rate of only 52%.   Usually it’s more in the ballpark of 75%.  So, the O’s have been extremely fortunate, or resilient (depending on your point of view) that their mediocre save rate hasn’t cost them more wins.

It should be noted, as everyone knows, that the O’s have played a ton of close games.   They’ve had 57 save opportunities, by far the most in the AL; Cleveland is next at 51, and the league average is 43.   So, our bullpen is under constant pressure and no team is going to be perfect when they are tested that often.

 

Edited July 26, 2023 by Frobby

[Frobby]

Last night the O’s had two blown saves and still won the game, 5-4.  Overall, they’ve blown 28 saves in 72 chances, a 61% save rate that is just under league average at 62%.   Since my last update on July 26, the pen has had 16 chances and blown 5, including the 2 last night.  Here’s a breakdown of the most recent 5.

August 8: Felix Bautista entered the top of the 9th with the O’s leading the Astros 6-3.   He coughed up 4 runs on 3 hits (including a homer) and a walk, and the O’s lost 7-6.   Quite arguably Bautista’s worst outing of the year.

August 13: Ahead of the Mariners 3-2 in the 9th, Mike Baumann allowed a long fly ball over the fence that miraculously was snared by Cedric Mullins in one of the greatest catches of the year.  Baumann then promptly allowed the next hitter to hit a homer about 20 rows into the stands where even Mullins couldn’t save it, and the game was tied 3-3.   No problem, as Mullins hit a two-run homer in the 10th and Shintaro Fujinami finished off the win.

August 19: With the O’s leading Oakland 2-1 in the 6th, Fujinami allowed a game-tying homer.  The game eventually went to extra innings and the O’s broke it open with 5 runs in the top of the 10th, winning 7-2.

Sept. 5: The O’s led 2-0 entering the 7th but Jorge Lopez allowed a one-out run scoring double and was relieved by Danny Coulombe, who got the second out but yielded a run-scoring single to tie the game for blown save no. 1.   Later, the O’s scored two in the top of the 9th to take a 4-3 lead, but in the bottom half DL Hall yielded a 2-out, 2 strike single that tied the game for blown save no. 2.  The O’s scored another run in the top of the 10th, and Fuji held the Angels scoreless as the O’s won 5-4.

So, of the five most recent blown saves, only one resulted in a loss.  The O’s won the other three, including a double blown save game.  On the year, the 28 blown saves have resulted in only 13 losses.  The O’s came back to win 12, and the other three were games involving two blown saves.  

I think these stats really speak to the amazing resilience of our offense.  When the O’s blow a lead, the offense goes right to work to get it back.  They don’t get down, they just go to work.  
 

Edited September 6, 2023 by Frobby

[Spy Fox]

I know the rule, but I always find it ridiculous when I look at a box score like last night's to see Lopez credited with a Hold despite his 2 ER, while Coulombe is given a BS and a scoreless inning.