Rodriguez's "stuff"

[Mr-splash]

I think Rodriguez is experiencing problems at the MLB level because for the first time in his life his stuff isn't good enough to dominate lineups. He needs to learn to how to actually pitch. He needs to learn how to get people out without overwhelming them with pure stuff. Because truth is, he doesn't have that kind of stuff. How many starters in the MLB at any given time can dominate MLB lineups consistently with their stuff alone? Maybe 5-10 in the whole league? I grew up watching Pedro, Randy Johnson, Kershaw, Lincecum, Verlander absolutely dominate the inside corner. They would bust you in with that "rising" fastball and then throw a breaking pitch to your backfoot. Ain't nothing you can do about that except take your K and tip your cap. Rodriguez isn't going to be that kind of pitcher. 

 

Rodriguez should look at a prime Johan Santana if he wants to be an ace. He features at times a plus-plus changeup like Santana did. Rodriguez has very good velocity on his fastball, but it doesn't have a whole lot of "life" on it. And he doesn't even have a plus breaking pitch, let alone a wipeout breaking pitch. He's needs to reevaluate what kind of starter he is going to be in the MLB. Look at Kevin Gausman to be honest. Kevin had to actually learn how to pitch when he got to the big leagues because in college and the minors he would overwhelm hitters with stuff. He's got pretty good stuff like Rodriguez, but not the kind of stuff to blow people away.

 

When I watch Rodriguez pitch I wonder to myself what exactly is the gameplan because overmatching guys with pure stuff isn't going to happen in the MLB.

[Frobby]

I don’t really understand what you want Rodriguez to do, other than pitch better. “Don’t throw pitches in spots where they can be hit hard.”  Well, of course.  “Throw better breaking pitches.”   Fine.  I’m sure Grayson knows he needs to do these things.  Knowing what you need to do, and being able to do it, are two different things.  This is more about executing the game plan than changing the game plan. 

[FlaO'sFan]

I wish I had seen Grayson pitch before he got hurt last year in the minors. Many posters on here who did see him before the injury say he hasn't been the same since.

Edited May 19, 2023 by FlaO'sFan

[baltfan]

2 hours ago, FlaO'sFan said:

I wish I had seen Grayson pitch before he got hurt last year in the minors. Many posters on here who did see him before the injury say he hasn't been the same since.

I saw him at Bowie. The stuff isn’t that different.  Fastball velocity is basically the same, maybe down a half a tick.  The offspeed stuff just isn’t quite as consistent and he isn’t locating great.  When people say his stuff is different, I am not sure where that is coming from. What are they saying is different?

[Mr-splash]

4 hours ago, Frobby said:

I don’t really understand what you want Rodriguez to do, other than pitch better. “Don’t throw pitches in spots where they can be hit hard.”  Well, of course.  “Throw better breaking pitches.”   Fine.  I’m sure Grayson knows he needs to do these things.  Knowing what you need to do, and being able to do it, are two different things.  This is more about executing the game plan than changing the game plan. 

He has to actually learn how to pitch. He doesnt have the stuff to dominate hitters at the MLB level. He was the #1 pitching prospect in baseball. Many of us believed he had wipeout stuff. He doesnt have that. 

[baltfan]

1 hour ago, Mr-splash said:

He has to actually learn how to pitch. He doesnt have the stuff to dominate hitters at the MLB level. He was the #1 pitching prospect in baseball. Many of us believed he had wipeout stuff. He doesnt have that. 

This I absolute rubbish.  His stuff is more than good enough to be a #1.  Do you think Ohtani is a #1?   Because I was at the game where the two pitched and Grayson ‘s stuff was better. His location just sucked.  Now perhaps you would say Ohtani’s stuff was down that day, but maybe you could say the same about Grayson’s.  

[Mr-splash]

25 minutes ago, baltfan said:

This I absolute rubbish.  His stuff is more than good enough to be a #1.  Do you think Ohtani is a #1?   Because I was at the game where the two pitched and Grayson ‘s stuff was better. His location just sucked.  Now perhaps you would say Ohtani’s stuff was down that day, but maybe you could say the same about Grayson’s.  

Grayson can be a #1 in the same vain as Johan Santana. A guy with good velocity and a good change up. He's not got wipeout stuff.

[sportsfan8703]

I think he’s got good stuff, but it all comes down to command, pitch sequencing, location. So basically learning how to pitch at the MLB level. There’s an adjustment facing tougher lineups. His next start is at Yankee stadium. He better learn real quick. 

[baltfan]

3 hours ago, Mr-splash said:

Grayson can be a #1 in the same vain as Johan Santana. A guy with good velocity and a good change up. He's not got wipeout stuff.

He has a ++ change, + fastball, and a + curve.  Who is this mythical, non-deGrom ace with the stuff that is so much better. 

[Hank Scorpio]

I suggest we check in with @nvpacchi on this particular subject. 

https://forum.orioleshangout.com/topic/47322-grayson-rodriguez-2023/page/19/#comment-2903391

[Matt Bennett]

It’s been tough sledding. With Bradish, we saw everything click in his 3rd major league start. Then he struggled for a month. But at least we saw it. Then it came back. 

I haven’t really seen it from Grayson. Maybe against that AAA lineup Detroit rolled out. Even with his starts he hasn’t let up multiple runs, it felt like I saw lots of balls/pitches, lots of fouls, and hard contact. No data to back that up, just eye test/memory/feel. 

Plenty of rookies struggle. The hope was that Grayson would be different, #1 pitching prospect in baseball and all. He has time and opportunity to turn it around, unless things get real ugly. 

[Otter]

6 hours ago, Mr-splash said:

He has to actually learn how to pitch. He doesnt have the stuff to dominate hitters at the MLB level. He was the #1 pitching prospect in baseball. Many of us believed he had wipeout stuff. He doesnt have that. 

Disagree.  He was the #1 pitching prospect in baseball not simply because he had great stuff, but also because he had good control, command, and pitchability.  The problem isn't he doesn't "know how to pitch," the problem is his command has been poor in many of his outings.  Major league hitters will hit "wipeout stuff" if it's not well located.  It's funny how with improved command, his stuff will once again look like "wipeout stuff"...

[nvpacchi]

I agreed with the sentiment of the OP at first, but have backed off a little - because the overall arsenal just has so many ways to potentially beat a hitter (and no pitch rates poor - besides the cutter).  However, whereas earlier I thought Eric Longenhagen was a little crazy for suggesting that Grayrod's stuff lost half a point post-lat injury, I can now see where he was at least coming from (not that I necessarily agree with him - especially ranking Pfaadt ahead of him in his prospect rankings).

Good news for Gray Rod is the fastball velo is back.  average over 97.5 in his last two starts, with the start against Tampa showing his best ride of the season.  The game in pink is Tampa, great velo and ride with the elite extension would have him rating super well in stuff models.  If his fastball can  trend like it has in these last two games, it should be fine.

But without having watched his starts, its tough to nail down the issue, but I imagine his location has been fringe to poor given the HRs he's allowed - and the command is a bigger issue.

 

Slider confusion

Interestingly he's been throwing the slider less and less since his first few starts, and the shape of the pitch confirms that.  There isn't a consistent shape to it, and there's varying degrees of horizontal movement (vertical too); probably makes it really challenging for him to locate it.

The chart below shows that his horizontal movement is all over the place - one start not consistent to the next.  Maybe he's tweaking daily, or he just doesn't know where its going?  Granted, this is probably a challenge for a lot of pitchers who throw a slider/sweeper that's supposed to generate a lot of horizontal movement.

Regardless, I hope he can just land on a shape, whatever it is, and learn to throw it consistently.

 

Eno always admits that his model is shaky on changeups (just look at Cano's changeup being rated in the 80s by his model!), so given that the changeup is one of his better pitches, he still has that going for him.  Plus he has a curve that's sporting a very good 36% CSW, and is also considered a plus pitch by the models.  Wish he'd throw the curve more.

I don't think Gray Rod will ever sport an arsenal that rivals that of someone like deGrom or Strider - but going forward he still should be able to flash four good pitches, and consistently keep hitters off balance (kinda Woodruff esque?).  But of course, location and command still looks to be key for him, and I hope this gets sorted out learning at the major league level.

Edited May 19, 2023 by nvpacchi

[Mr-splash]

12 minutes ago, Otter said:

Disagree.  He was the #1 pitching prospect in baseball not simply because he had great stuff, but also because he had good control, command, and pitchability.  The problem isn't he doesn't "know how to pitch," the problem is his command has been poor in many of his outings.  Major league hitters will hit "wipeout stuff" if it's not well located.  It's funny how with improved command, his stuff will once again look like "wipeout stuff"...

I watched Tim Lincecum in 2008 and 2009 dominate MLB hitters pitching right over the heart of the plate.

[Frobby]

I’m not good at reading the data outputs on pitch types, I just have impressions from what I see.  And I did see Grayson in person once at Bowie and on milb.tv once at Norfolk pre-injury, so i feel I have some ability to compare what I see now to what I saw then.

Fastball - velocity is excellent, ride is excellent, horizontal movement is minimal.   Batters will square it up if they guess fastball and he locates it poorly.  It’s very effective at the top and bottom of the zone, but very hittable in the middle even at 96-99.  Command of the pitch is inconsistent, and a lot of the ones he tries to throw at the very top of the zone or just above it end up sailing 6-12 inches high.  The ones that land at/near the top are devastating but he misses too often up there and just wastes a pitch.

Change-up - devastating pitch that he usually locates well.   Nice fade and nice drop, and unhittable if you’re looking fastball.

Slider - this is the pitch that’s giving him trouble, compared to the minors.  It’s not a super-devastating pitch on its own, but when we’ll-located (staying on the outer half of the plate and then breaking off it), it’s extremely effective when the batter has to be geared up for a fastball.  I think he tunnels it well, but the command just hasn’t been there like it was in the minors, where he could routinely land it 6-8 inches outside after starting over the outside part of the plate to RHB.   I’ve seen way too many sliders this year they either are a ball coming out of his hand, or land in the middle of the plate.   This has been his biggest problem so far IMO.

Curve - this is an underrated pitch that I wish he’d throw a bit more.  It has nice break and he can land it for a strike at the bottom of the zone with decent consistency from what I’ve seen.

Cutter - this pitch is new and doesn’t really do anything for me, other than give hitters a different look when they’re looking fastball.   If his slider was working better, I doubt he’d use this pitch as much as he has lately.

So overall, I’d say his stuff is above average, but fastball and slider command haven’t been as good as they need to be.   

I leave it to the data readers to confirm or reject my impressions.