And so itbegins

[Hallas]

3 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Lol. I said what he did in April..which is an entire month but you think it’s cherry picking to omit one game in a different month and that one game is supposed to change the idea that you said he has only not shown power the last 3 weeks?  

That’s complete bs but again, you are doing nothing but moving the goal posts on your preseason thoughts.  You thought he was going to be a 7+ WAR MVP candidate and he isn’t trending at all in that direction. You know this but for some reason you don’t want to admit it, as if it’s some awful thing to say that the team savior is off to a start that we didn’t believe would happen coming off the year he did.

 

The thing is... it's his defense, and to a lesser extent his baserunning, that are behind his reduced WAR pace.  He's gone from one of the best defensive catchers in the league to an average or slightly below average defensive catcher, and that's even if you disregard framing metrics (which I'd prefer to do, because I don't think they will be repeatable going forward as umpires become more aware of framing techniques.)  If he matched last season's defensive performance he'd be on pace for a 6 WAR season.  Complaining about his power, when his statcast xwOBA and xSLG numbers are looking fine and he's barely below the pace from last season seems really weird.

[Sports Guy]

5 hours ago, Hallas said:

The thing is... it's his defense, and to a lesser extent his baserunning, that are behind his reduced WAR pace.  He's gone from one of the best defensive catchers in the league to an average or slightly below average defensive catcher, and that's even if you disregard framing metrics (which I'd prefer to do, because I don't think they will be repeatable going forward as umpires become more aware of framing techniques.)  If he matched last season's defensive performance he'd be on pace for a 6 WAR season.  Complaining about his power, when his statcast xwOBA and xSLG numbers are looking fine and he's barely below the pace from last season seems really weird.

When this started, he had 8 doubles and 8 homers. His slugging was barely over 400 and he hadnt shown much power all year.  He showed a much better ability to hit for extra bases last year. At the time I made the original post, he had the 16 XBH. I believe he had 13 XBH in a June of last year, his first full month in the majors.

Everyone saying this wasn’t a disappointing start is either lying to the board or themselves or they just, for whatever reason, can’t say Adley has been off to a disappointing start. They are just searching for reasons not to bash the guy we all love and have crowned the franchise. It’s ok to be disappointed when they don’t meet expectations.  It’s ok to admit it. You won’t go to prison.

As I said before, it doesn’t mean he won’t be good this year.  It doesn’t mean he still won’t be a 6+ WAR guy this year. It doesn’t mean any of that. It was a conversation about his year thus far and his year this far hasn’t been close to the expectations we all had on him. Why is that so difficult for people to admit?

Just be consistent. If you felt that he was going to be in the MVP discussion, as basically everyone did , you can’t be happy that he was “only” on a 4.5 WAR pace. 

And I was complaining about the defense too. Those 2 things have clearly been lacking this year.  You talking about the expected numbers is great and all but so what? I mean, I’m not ignoring them and they give hope for the rest of the year but it has zippy to do with what he has actually accomplished this year and they weren’t even that high prior to this reason increase in power, thus it’s not relevant to the original point.

 

Edited June 19, 2023 by Sports Guy

[Hallas]

5 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

When this started, he had 8 doubles and 8 homers. His slugging was barely over 400 and he hadnt shown much power all year.  He showed a much better ability to hit for extra bases last year. At the time I made the original post, he had the 16 XBH. I believe he had 13 XBH in a June of last year, his first full month in the majors.

Everyone saying this wasn’t a disappointing start is either lying to the board or themselves or they just, for whatever reason, can’t say Adley has been off to a disappointing start. They are just searching for reasons not to bash the guy we all love and have crowned the franchise. It’s ok to be disappointed when they don’t meet expectations.  It’s ok to admit it. You won’t go to prison.

As I said before, it doesn’t mean he won’t be good this year.  It doesn’t mean he still won’t be a 6+ WAR guy this year. It doesn’t mean any of that. It was a conversation about his year thus far and his year this far hasn’t been close to the expectations we all had on him. Why is that so difficult for people to admit?

Just be consistent. If you felt that he was going to be in the MVP discussion, as basically everyone did , you can’t be happy that he was “only” on a 4.5 WAR pace. 

And I was complaining about the defense too. Those 2 things have clearly been lacking this year.  You talking about the expected numbers is great and all but so what? I mean, I’m not ignoring them and they give hope for the rest of the year but it has zippy to do with what he has actually accomplished this year and they weren’t even that high prior to this reason increase in power, thus it’s not relevant to the original point.

 

 

I think that his expected stats are pretty relevant, but even if you skip that, his quality of contact is clearly better than last year.  Higher sweet spot percentage, higher EV, contact rate, higher hard hit rate.  He is hitting the ball well, and while you can be disappointed with the results, your tone suggests to me that you believe he's regressed in skill level as a batter, and i just don't see it.

Edited June 19, 2023 by Hallas

[Sports Guy]

41 minutes ago, Hallas said:

 

I think that his expected stats are pretty relevant, but even if you skip that, his quality of contact is clearly better than last year.  Higher sweet spot percentage, higher EV, contact rate, higher hard hit rate.  He is hitting the ball well, and while you can be disappointed with the results, your tone suggests to me that you believe he's regressed in skill level as a batter, and i just don't see it.

Well, you should trying to read my tone because you failed miserably at it. 

[Hallas]

On 6/9/2023 at 6:44 AM, Sports Guy said:

Im not unhappy With Adley..but I am disappointed at the defense and the lack of power. The BA/OBP is great. But he needs to be more than that imo.

 

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Well, you should trying to read my tone because you failed miserably at it. 

 

This sure sounds like the tone of someone that thinks Adley's skills have regressed.  Besides, it's not up to you to judge your tone, and if you failed to convey your tone (which you apparently have, because everyone in this thread is up in arms with you implying that Adley is actually hitting poorly relative to his expectations, and not just in a slump or otherwise in a situation that he is likely to recover from) then that's on you, not on everyone else for misjudging your words.

Edited June 19, 2023 by Hallas

[Frobby]

9 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

When this started, he had 8 doubles and 8 homers. His slugging was barely over 400 and he hadnt shown much power all year.  He showed a much better ability to hit for extra bases last year. At the time I made the original post, he had the 16 XBH. I believe he had 13 XBH in a June of last year, his first full month in the majors.to ically everyone did , you can’t be happy that he was “only” on a 4.5 WAR pace. 

When this started, Adley had an .825 OPS.  He has an .824 OPS today.   The OBP is down 12 points, the SLG is up 12 points.  None of that is very significant in assessing Adley’s season so far.   

I’m satisfied with Adley’s offense.   +25 points in OBP vs. -8 in SLG compared to last year is a good tradeoff.   If you want to go back to June 7 when this thread started, +37 points in OBP vs. -20 points in SLG is also a good tradeoff.   Am I hoping for a little more offensively before the year is over?   Yes, I am.  But I am not disappointed now, and wasn’t on June 7.

The defensive numbers do disappoint me, though as I said in this June 1 thread, I haven’t really noticed a big difference to match what the advanced stats say, other than in the CS% department.

 

[Frobby]

8 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

When this started, he had 8 doubles and 8 homers. His slugging was barely over 400 and he hadnt shown much power all year.  He showed a much better ability to hit for extra bases last year. At the time I made the original post, he had the 16 XBH. I believe he had 13 XBH in a June of last year, his first full month in the majors.to ically everyone did , you can’t be happy that he was “only” on a 4.5 WAR pace. 

When this started, Adley had an .825 OPS.  He has an .824 OPS today.   The OBP is down 12 points, the SLG is up 12 points.  None of that is very significant in assessing Adley’s season so far.   

I’m satisfied with Adley’s offense.   +25 points in OBP vs. -8 in SLG compared to last year is a good tradeoff.   If you want to go back to June 7 when this thread started, +37 points in OBP vs. -20 points in SLG is also a good tradeoff.   Am I hoping for a little more offensively before the year is over?   Yes, I am.  But I am not disappointed now, and wasn’t on June 7.

The defensive numbers do disappoint me, though as I said in this June 1 thread, I haven’t really noticed any decline to match the numbers except in the throwing department.

[Hallas]

5 hours ago, Frobby said:

When this started, Adley had an .825 OPS.  He has an .824 OPS today.   The OBP is down 12 points, the SLG is up 12 points.  None of that is very significant in assessing Adley’s season so far.   

I’m satisfied with Adley’s offense.   +25 points in OBP vs. -8 in SLG compared to last year is a good tradeoff.   If you want to go back to June 7 when this thread started, +37 points in OBP vs. -20 points in SLG is also a good tradeoff.   Am I hoping for a little more offensively before the year is over?   Yes, I am.  But I am not disappointed now, and wasn’t on June 7.

The defensive numbers do disappoint me, though as I said in this June 1 thread, I haven’t really noticed a big difference to match what the advanced stats say, other than in the CS% department.

 

His pitch blocking is noticeably worse to me. He allowed 25 WP+PB last year.  He's already at 20 and he's played like 40% fewer games.

[Frobby]

32 minutes ago, Hallas said:

His pitch blocking is noticeably worse to me. He allowed 25 WP+PB last year.  He's already at 20 and he's played like 40% fewer games.

I hear you on this, and cited some stats about it in my June 1 thread.  Still, we have to acknowledge that not all wild pitches are blockable, and it’s not really possible for us just to look at a raw WP total and know how many were blockable and which weren’t, how difficult the possible blocks were, and how that compares with last year’s mix.  

Now, that said, Statcast does make estimates of how many block opportunities were easy, medium or tough.  And they say Adley’s chances have been a little easier this year than last.  What you don’t know is how tough the tough ones were.