Is Adley’s defense noticeably worse this year?

[Frobby]

Adley Rutschman is having an excellent year, 1.9 rWAR, 1.8 fWAR, on pace for around 5.2 -5.5 WAR, depending which flavor you prefer.   That’s very good, but Adley was worth 5+ WAR last year in only 3/4 of a season, despite offensive numbers not as good as this year.   So, is Adley playing worse defense this year?  

Well, statistically, he is.  Last year he allowed 23 wild pitches; this year, in less than half the number of games, he’s allowed 18.   Statcast had him at 18 blocks above average last year, and 0 this year.  Last year, he threw out 31% of runners who tried to steal (25% was league average); this year, he’s at 23% (21% is league average).  And, runners are testing him much more often; he’s almost allowed as many steals this year (23) as all last year (25).  As to pitch framing, Fangraphs had him at +9.1 last year; he’s at -0.4 this year.  Statcast had him at +4 last year and -1 this year.

So, what do you make of it?   Have you noticed Adley looking worse on defense this year?  Honestly, I haven’t, except that he’s bounced quite a few throws to 2B in his rush to get rid of the ball quickly.  I can’t say I’ve noticed any slippage in his blocking or framing, but the numbers say otherwise.

 

[murph]

He is weighted down too much from carrying the team on his back?

Seriously though, I personally think he’s been very good defensively.  Eye test anyway.  
 

I agree the throws on stolen base attempts have not looked good in some cases.   But most of the bad throws have seem rushed.  IMO
 

 

[Gurgi]

29 minutes ago, murph said:

He is weighted down too much from carrying the team on his back?

Seriously though, I personally think he’s been very good defensively.  Eye test anyway.  
 

I agree the throws on stolen base attempts have not looked good in some cases.   But most of the bad throws have seem rushed.  IMO
 

 

Well defensively he does not seem as good as Wieters.   Wieters had  a better arm.  

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

The only thing I see worse with Adley this season is his caught stealing% has declined from 31% in 2022 to 23% this season. Now some of this can be explained by the bases being made bigger, but the MLB caught stealing% went from 25% in 2022 to 21% this year.

Adley was 24% better than the league average last season at throwing out base stealers compared to only 9.5% better this year.

[owknows]

Pitch clock

 

[Baltimorecuse]

46 minutes ago, owknows said:

Pitch clock

 

I like the pitch clock except when there is a runner at first.  It has changed the game.  

[wildcard]

New rule to only allow 2 pick out throws has increase the number of steal attempts.   Its common knowledge that if you can get to first on Bautista that is he slow to the plate and easy to steal on.

Pitch clock make pitchers have to throw more quickly and sometimes they rush which causes them to be wilder.  That may be why the wild pitch count is up.

Adley looks in control to me defensively.  One of if not the best in the MLB. 

[SemperFi]

7 hours ago, Frobby said:

Adley Rutschman is having an excellent year, 1.9 rWAR, 1.8 fWAR, on pace for around 5.2 -5.5 WAR, depending which flavor you prefer.   That’s very good, but Adley was worth 5+ WAR last year in only 3/4 of a season, despite offensive numbers not as good as this year.   So, is Adley playing worse defense this year?  

Well, statistically, he is.  Last year he allowed 23 wild pitches; this year, in less than half the number of games, he’s allowed 18.   Statcast had him at 18 blocks above average last year, and 0 this year.  Last year, he threw out 31% of runners who tried to steal (25% was league average); this year, he’s at 23% (21% is league average).  And, runners are testing him much more often; he’s almost allowed as many steals this year (23) as all last year (25).  As to pitch framing, Fangraphs had him at +9.1 last year; he’s at -0.4 this year.  Statcast had him at +4 last year and -1 this year.

So, what do you make of it?   Have you noticed Adley looking worse on defense this year?  Honestly, I haven’t, except that he’s bounced quite a few throws to 2B in his rush to get rid of the ball quickly.  I can’t say I’ve noticed any slippage in his blocking or framing, but the numbers say otherwise.

 

Why is his rating affected by wild pitches-shouldn't that be on the pitcher? 

I really haven't noticed anything, SB's are to be expected.  It's much easier for me to judge a IF/OF than a C, it's much more nuanced-things like framing

[Mr-splash]

Hard to say. Catching defense is harder to quantify than Infielder or Outfielder defense. Pitch calling and managing the staff seems to be nearly impossible to quantify. 

[Otter]

Most SBs are stolen on the pitcher not the catcher, especially with pitchers like Bautista.  Caught stealing percentage for a pitcher probably fluctuates from year to year not because their defense has slipped, but because there are different pitchers on the roster who are better or worse at holding runners, TTTP.

[Sports Guy]

Have definitely noticed more balls getting by him. He certainly could be tired, maybe not moving quite as well because of it. If you are off just a little, the ball will get past you.

The caught stealing stuff is 100% noticeable but the question is, how does his drop off compare to the league?

[Sports Guy]

27 minutes ago, Otter said:

Most SBs are stolen on the pitcher not the catcher, especially with pitchers like Bautista.  Caught stealing percentage for a pitcher probably fluctuates from year to year not because their defense has slipped, but because there are different pitchers on the roster who are better or worse at holding runners, TTTP.

The whole, it’s on the pitcher stuff has always been the case and yet plenty of C excel at throwing guys out.

[Can_of_corn]

I've noticed that the framing and blocking have dropped off a bit.

He also seems thicker through the chest this year, I wonder if it might be effecting his mobility back there.

[Aristotelian]

50 minutes ago, SemperFi said:

Why is his rating affected by wild pitches-shouldn't that be on the pitcher? 

I really haven't noticed anything, SB's are to be expected.  It's much easier for me to judge a IF/OF than a C, it's much more nuanced-things like framing

A better catcher can help the pitcher by limiting wild pitches. Kind of like defense is about more than not committing errors, it's about how much you help the team overall. 

That being said, I have not noticed any eye test difference in Adley's defense this year. Probably just a case of statistical noise.

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

A better catcher can help the pitcher by limiting wild pitches. Kind of like defense is about more than not committing errors, it's about how much you help the team overall. 

That being said, I have not noticed any eye test difference in Adley's defense this year. Probably just a case of statistical noise.

If a pitcher knows his catcher can block well it frees them up to throw pitches that might not otherwise risk.