And so itbegins

[Flash- bd]

20 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I do believe SG wants to be looked at as someone who has original thoughts. 
 

Is anyone, anywhere saying they’re disappointed in Adley? No. 
 

But SG is. And that makes him a rebel of sorts, if you will. A contrarian. Someone who “can think outside the box” because he’s on a different plane than the rest of us. 
 

Adley’s just fine. 

Tbh, I'm not SG and I'm not looking to be seen as someone with original thoughts, but I do confess that if Adley is a .800 OPS bat then I am a bit disappointed, yeah. (I know, I know, that that still makes him a hugely valuable player, that it's still far better than the typical range of outcomes of a #1 draft pick...but I'm not getting into all that, I'm just saying I'm disappointed versus what my actual expectations for him were, and if we're all honest I think that's true for most of us...)

My worry at the moment is that he's less than a .800 OPS bat, because it feels like he's getting pretty lucky in regards to his underlying batted ball numbers. 

[Mr-splash]

10 minutes ago, Flash- bd said:

Tbh, I'm not SG and I'm not looking to be seen as someone with original thoughts, but I do confess that if Adley is a .800 OPS bat then I am a bit disappointed, yeah. (I know, I know, that that still makes him a hugely valuable player, that it's still far better than the typical range of outcomes of a #1 draft pick...but I'm not getting into all that, I'm just saying I'm disappointed versus what my actual expectations for him were, and if we're all honest I think that's true for most of us...)

My worry at the moment is that he's less than a .800 OPS bat, because it feels like he's getting pretty lucky in regards to his underlying batted ball numbers. 

 

.800 OPS from your catcher is great. Also OPS is flawed because OBP is more important than SLG. I'd rather add 100 points to my OBP than 100 points to my slugging.

[Flash- bd]

6 minutes ago, Mr-splash said:

 

.800 OPS from your catcher is great. Also OPS is flawed because OBP is more important than SLG. I'd rather add 100 points to my OBP than 100 points to my slugging.

I know, I know, I'm just being honest about what my actual hopes and expectations were for him. And I would be lying if I said that I didn't think he would be more than a 126 WRc+ or .800 OPS hitter. And I still hope he will be! 

[Mr-splash]

4 minutes ago, Flash- bd said:

I know, I know, I'm just being honest about what my actual hopes and expectations were for him. And I would be lying if I said that I didn't think he would be more than a 126 WRc+ or .800 OPS hitter. And I still hope he will be! 

Most 1:1 picks cant hit anywhere close to that level, let alone catchers. 

[Moose Milligan]

41 minutes ago, Flash- bd said:

Tbh, I'm not SG and I'm not looking to be seen as someone with original thoughts, but I do confess that if Adley is a .800 OPS bat then I am a bit disappointed, yeah. (I know, I know, that that still makes him a hugely valuable player, that it's still far better than the typical range of outcomes of a #1 draft pick...but I'm not getting into all that, I'm just saying I'm disappointed versus what my actual expectations for him were, and if we're all honest I think that's true for most of us...)

My worry at the moment is that he's less than a .800 OPS bat, because it feels like he's getting pretty lucky in regards to his underlying batted ball numbers. 

I’ll take the league leader in walks. 

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, Moose Milligan said:

I do believe SG wants to be looked at as someone who has original thoughts. 
 

Is anyone, anywhere saying they’re disappointed in Adley? No. 
 

But SG is. And that makes him a rebel of sorts, if you will. A contrarian. Someone who “can think outside the box” because he’s on a different plane than the rest of us. 
 

Adley’s just fine. 

What a ridiculously stupid post.

Anyone who tells you that they are perfectly fine with a 400ish slugging and middling defense from Adley, which is what he has given this year, is a liar.

No way people aren’t disappointed by that.

We all talked about how he had a chance to be an MVP candidate this year and right now, he is .6 WAR behind Jonah freaking Heim.

Sorry, that is absolutely disappointing. It doesn’t mean he’s a bad player or can’t get better or anything like that but the totality of his game so far this season has been disappointing. 

Now, I don’t think it’s all his fault. They are running him into the ground with their stupid plan but he has to be better.

 

[Just Regular]

In just the same way Mountcastle's OBP sticks out among 1B like a sore thumb, same thing with Adley at C.    Half the league is .300 and down; Adley off and on at .400....just .390 now with the recent lull.

Hopefully two full days gets him gassed up for Toronto....they'll come in mad and energized by a big rally off Twins pitching to get a win in a bad Gausman game.

[Sports Guy]

According to fWAR, Adley is 5th in the majors, of all catchers who have at least 100 at bats. 
 

He is as close to 8th as he is to 3rd and he is nowhere near Sean Murphy.

We all believe he’s the best catcher in baseball and while I can’t find it, I believe there was an Adley prediction thread in the offseason and I’m guessing no one felt he would be a borderline top 5 catcher this year.

Im also guessing people didn’t see the defense as an issue or that we would be in mid June and he would have a total of 16 extra base hits. Last year, he had 49 extra base hits in 398 at bats, or one every 8.1 at bats. This year, he is getting an XBH every 17.6 at bats. 
 

And last year, he only had 2 extra base hits in his first 55 at bats and didn’t hit first homer until about his 60th at bat. That means, he ended the season on a pace for an XBH every 7.3 at bats. 
 

Anyone telling you they are ok with all of that is lying to you. Anyone saying they expected that is lying and if your expectations weren’t decreased power and defense, by definition that means you are disappointed.

Edited June 12, 2023 by Sports Guy

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Just Regular said:

In just the same way Mountcastle's OBP sticks out among 1B like a sore thumb, same thing with Adley at C.    Half the league is .300 and down; Adley off and on at .400....just .390 now with the recent lull.

Hopefully two full days gets him gassed up for Toronto....they'll come in mad and energized by a big rally off Twins pitching to get a win in a bad Gausman game.

If the OBP was combined with the same stellar defense we saw last year, that would be ok.

But it has to be more than just OBP. 

[RVAOsFan]

I love this place it really keeps you on your toes.

Luckily for you all I have been doing a deep dive recently into some stats and analysis on Adley and have been able to determine he was a good pick using some new metrics I developed I call DUBS and L’S. DUBS are good and L’S are bad. Since Adley made his major league debut the Orioles have had a lot more DUBS than L’S.

Save some rep for others but I understand if you feel it necessary to drop it all here on this post. 

[Mr-splash]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

According to fWAR, Adley is 5th in the majors, of all catchers who have at least 100 at bats. 
 

He is as close to 8th as he is to 3rd and he is nowhere near Sean Murphy.

We all believe he’s the best catcher in baseball and while I can’t find it, I believe there was an Adley prediction thread in the offseason and I’m guessing no one felt he would be a borderline top 5 catcher this year.

Im also guessing people didn’t see the defense as an issue or that we would be in mid June and he would have a total of 16 extra base hits. Last year, he had 49 extra base hits in 398 at bats, or one every 8.1 at bats. This year, he is getting an XBH every 17.6 at bats. 
 

And last year, he only had 2 extra base hits in his first 55 at bats and didn’t hit first homer until about his 60th at bat. That means, he ended the season on a pace for an XBH every 7.3 at bats. 
 

Anyone telling you they are ok with all of that is lying to you. Anyone saying they expected that is lying and if your expectations weren’t decreased power and defense, by definition that means you are disappointed.

You complain like a money grubbing woman. Is there an off button? 

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, Mr-splash said:

You complain like a money grubbing woman. Is there an off button? 

If there is, please use it so I don’t have to read your mindless drivel. 

[Mr-splash]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

If there is, please use it so I don’t have to read your mindless drivel. 

I'm asking you? I'm new here. Do you ever turn off? Make it stop.

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Mr-splash said:

I'm  here.

Unfortunately

[Moose Milligan]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

What a ridiculously stupid post.

Anyone who tells you that they are perfectly fine with a 400ish slugging and middling defense from Adley, which is what he has given this year, is a liar.

No way people aren’t disappointed by that.

We all talked about how he had a chance to be an MVP candidate this year and right now, he is .6 WAR behind Jonah freaking Heim.

Sorry, that is absolutely disappointing. It doesn’t mean he’s a bad player or can’t get better or anything like that but the totality of his game so far this season has been disappointing. 

Now, I don’t think it’s all his fault. They are running him into the ground with their stupid plan but he has to be better.

 

I don't think anyone here or anyone in baseball really thinks that Jonah Heim is going to be a better player than Adley Rutschman.  Just because we're at a snapshot in time where Heim is .6 WAR ahead doesn't mean anything, which you've already sort of agreed to in this post.

Just because Adley might not be an MVP candidate this year is meaningless.

I'll agree that they're running him into the ground.