2023 19th Round Pick (#571): Kollin Ritchie - SS - (HS) Atoka HS (OK)

[Tony-OH]

3 hours ago, scarey1999 said:

That’s a bit disappointing if true.
 

I can understand Witt, that was more of a true flier given his situation. But for a HS kid like this, I would have hoped Elias and team would have been more in tune with what it would take to sign guys away from college commitments before drafting them. If they didn’t know, this is literally a wasted pick. 

At this point in the draft, there's not much to risk taking a flier that you may be able to scrape enough money and convince the kid to turn pro. there's really no difference in a 15th rounder and later then a UDFA talent wise in a lot of cases. 

So why not take a flier and see what happens? Personally I don't see the Orioles signing either player because I don't think they can save the amount they they did last year when Holliday signed for almost 700k less than slot because the 1-1 slot is so high. 

[scarey1999]

2 hours ago, RZNJ said:

Ritchie was reportedly at a pre-draft workout at OPACY which leads me to believe he’s willing to sign and the Orioles knew what it would take before drafting him.  Now, whether it depended on other variables coming together, I don’t know but by the 19th round when they made the pick it sounds like the intention was to sign this kid.   I think the Witt thing was more of a flier and just taking a shot with a lot less background spent on the ability to sign.

Thanks. I missed the post earlier where the pre draft workout was mentioned.

Either way, I hope Callis is wrong and we can get this kid signed. Agree with you on the Witt flier thing as I said in my previous comment. Definitely more of a shot in the dark there. 

[scarey1999]

26 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

At this point in the draft, there's not much to risk taking a flier that you may be able to scrape enough money and convince the kid to turn pro. there's really no difference in a 15th rounder and later then a UDFA talent wise in a lot of cases. 

So why not take a flier and see what happens? Personally I don't see the Orioles signing either player because I don't think they can save the amount they they did last year when Holliday signed for almost 700k less than slot because the 1-1 slot is so high. 

Thanks. I understand the logic there and the minimal differentiation between later round picks. Simply saying if it were me running the draft and I took a high school kid late, I’d want to be 100% certain he was going to sign. Without that 100%, I’m looking elsewhere. Just a personal preference. Definitely not here to judge or say which approach is correct. 

Hoping Callis is wrong and we can sign this kid. Despite the questions about competition, seems like a very interesting profile to work with. Witt, agreed, he’s already back in Austin. 

[e16bball]

I think a big part of these types of picks is that they’re a hedge against someone like Baumeister or Lord having a health issue (or getting a wild hair in negotiations) and becoming unsignable — like Nolan McLean last year. That frees up a lot of money that would go unspent unless you have a guy or two that you can pivot to.

On draft day last year, they probably didn’t expect to sign Carter Young either. But when the money became available, they made him an offer he couldn’t refuse. Which is probably the plan with Witt and Ritchie, as well.

[RZNJ]

2 minutes ago, e16bball said:

I think a big part of these types of picks is that they’re a hedge against someone like Baumeister or Lord having a health issue (or getting a wild hair in negotiations) and becoming unsignable — like Nolan McLean last year. That frees up a lot of money that would go unspent unless you have a guy or two that you can pivot to.

On draft day last year, they probably didn’t expect to sign Carter Young either. But when the money became available, they made him an offer he couldn’t refuse. Which is probably the plan with Witt and Ritchie, as well.

But the slot money for unsigned top picks isn’t saved money.   It’s pool money that’s lost.  Underslot saves money.  Not signing at all saves nothing.  Not signing McLean didn’t help sign Young.   Saving on other underslot and dipping into the 5% helped sign Young although not signing McLean may have motivated them to actually do it.

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, e16bball said:

I think a big part of these types of picks is that they’re a hedge against someone like Baumeister or Lord having a health issue (or getting a wild hair in negotiations) and becoming unsignable — like Nolan McLean last year. That frees up a lot of money that would go unspent unless you have a guy or two that you can pivot to.

On draft day last year, they probably didn’t expect to sign Carter Young either. But when the money became available, they made him an offer he couldn’t refuse. Which is probably the plan with Witt and Ritchie, as well.

If you don't sign an early pick you lose the slot money.  The O's went into overage last season and I think part of the reason why was because they didn't sign McLean last year.

[Tony-OH]

37 minutes ago, scarey1999 said:

Thanks. I understand the logic there and the minimal differentiation between later round picks. Simply saying if it were me running the draft and I took a high school kid late, I’d want to be 100% certain he was going to sign. Without that 100%, I’m looking elsewhere. Just a personal preference. Definitely not here to judge or say which approach is correct. 

Hoping Callis is wrong and we can sign this kid. Despite the questions about competition, seems like a very interesting profile to work with. Witt, agreed, he’s already back in Austin. 

The problem is the high school kid that is going to sign for $125k nowadays probably does not have much upside.

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

At this point in the draft, there's not much to risk taking a flier that you may be able to scrape enough money and convince the kid to turn pro. there's really no difference in a 15th rounder and later then a UDFA talent wise in a lot of cases. 

So why not take a flier and see what happens? Personally I don't see the Orioles signing either player because I don't think they can save the amount they they did last year when Holliday signed for almost 700k less than slot because the 1-1 slot is so high. 

They could and should go the 5% over. That would make it easier.

[RZNJ]

3 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

The problem is the high school kid that is going to sign for $125k nowadays probably does not have much upside.

It certainly would be a coup if you did find one at that number.  I was surprised at Showalters bonus last year in, I believe, the 250k range.  Not saying he’s high ceiling but he looks like something.    Lott and Ritchie are huge long shots but the O’s track record on HS picks has been about 100% so far.  Pretty amazing, Hernaiz (5), Henderson (2), Willems (8), Baumler (4), Mayo (5), Showalter (11).    That gives me confidence that Lott and Ritchie have a chance.

[e16bball]

42 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

But the slot money for unsigned top picks isn’t saved money.   It’s pool money that’s lost.  Underslot saves money.  Not signing at all saves nothing.  Not signing McLean didn’t help sign Young.   Saving on other underslot and dipping into the 5% helped sign Young although not signing McLean may have motivated them to actually do it.

41 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

If you don't sign an early pick you lose the slot money.  The O's went into overage last season and I think part of the reason why was because they didn't sign McLean last year.

I stand corrected! Thanks for the information

[baltfan]

2 hours ago, Number5 said:

Was Callis citing a source, or stating his opinion?

Wasn’t clear but he mentioned he checked on some other guys and was surprised to find out they might sign. Wasn’t clear if he spoke with anyone in this caee

[baltfan]

From Kiley McDaniel:

. Texas RHP Tanner Witt (73; late-first talent out of HS who returned from Tommy John surgery this year and things never clicked) is headed back to school and prep SS Kollin Ritchie (293; powerful left-handed hitter who hasn't faced much top pitching) is another tough sign who I don't expect will sign.

[OriolesFan1964]

So Forret signed for $450K ($300K overslot) today 7/25.  So deducting Baumeister from draft pool, etc., could offer Ritchie about $950K.

[baltfan]

I could see a scenario where Ritchie told them his price is  $1mm.  They have two guys in the pool part of the draft that they think they might have to go overslot with but could price themselves out, so they wait until round 19 to draft Ritchie as insurance and that late so as not to piss him off by poaching him from another team.  

Edited July 25, 2023 by baltfan

[OriolesFan1964]

After Baumeister signing, it looks like the most the O's could offer Ritchie was about $650K, $150K slot value and $499,700 additional cash subject to the 75% Tax.  That is all in.

Unless there is a late breaking announcement, I guess Mr. Ritchie will be playing at Oklahoma State next year.