Thoughts on deep playoff run?

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

Definitely! I believe that cheating was integral to the strategy that Bill Belichick used. But he also had Tom Brady. who went on to leave the system with the cheating advantage and win another championship after the age of 40.

Also, I know that basketball is subject to influence/interference by referees but Jordan's 6 championships and Kobe's 5 couldn't have just all been lucky. Could they?

Was the "luck" and/or cheating the dominant for Jeter's 5 rings? Yes they had help cheating us in '96, but they won a whole heck of a lot of postseason series after that.

I think luck is less of a factor in the NBA.  I also think the league itself has a more active role in who wins in the NBA...just look at the playoff officiating...

With pitching being what it is I think baseball is more luck dependent than the NBA or NFL, more like the NHL where a hot goalie and get you pretty far in the playoffs.

[Malike]

To me, it feels like the expectations for this season are ahead of where Elias thought they would be. I'm sure he thought the team would improve on last season, but I don't think he thought they'd be in the position they are in right now. I just think this is a scenario he had playing out next season and probably wanted to get a better look at the young guys this year.

I'm not sure he's going full-on all in at the deadline, but we'll find out what he does over the next couple of weeks.

[foxfield]

My thoughts on a playoff run are based on the Orioles already doing more than expected.

I think most of us hoped to be in the hunt for playoffs not in the conversation of best teams in baseball.

I think this is a really talented group that has risen above it's flaws so to speak so far.

I think the Orioles have been deep enough to survive the relatively small health bumps, but they have had multiple starters and pitchers miss time.

I think how deep they go depends on several factors:

1). Starting pitching.  We saw very good starting pitching in the back half of the Yankee series and the Minn series.  IF the Orioles can keep that consistency or build on it, it will be huge.

Secondarily, there are several guys who you have to wonder if they will tire down the stretch.  If everyone stays healthy, there are enough bodies, but having a #2 or in that range (addition) would be huge.

One of Grod or Means would be a big asset as well.  Grod hopefully as SG mentioned earlier is supposed to be our ace...getting him in the second half could be a difference maker.

2).  Offense.  The Orioles are playing several young players who still have untapped potential.  Can this group grow during the second half?  If Henderson makes a charge for ROY he could elevate this team.  Cowser and Westburg and possibly others could begin to see the game slow down and elevate this group.  Can Hays stay healthy and continue his All Star season?  The point is, there are lots of options and plenty of room for this group to continue to improve.

The converse is also true, however, and these young guys could wear down.  The hope of course is that they continue to build in the second half.

3). Bull Pen. The pen has been a mixed bag of excellence and disappointment.  I think most of us agree the talent is there, but to make a big run, this group either needs outside help or some pretty significant internal reworking.  The hope here is that outside help is within the budget/capital wise for Elias to find help.

4).  Luck.  We see it all the time, teams get really hot at the right time.  It's time for the sun to shine on the Baltimore Orioles.

Therefore, I think playoffs are in the cards and ALCS is the baseline target.

Edited July 13, 2023 by foxfield

[SteveA]

2 hours ago, RVAOsFan said:

We are 5-1 against them on the year up to this point, so I would be disappointed if lost a playoff series to them.

Especially with all 3 games at home.

[SteveA]

1 hour ago, clapdiddy said:

The Braves definitely have better pitching.  Not that this is the same team, but you could say that about the 1991-2000 Braves teams.  They had great pitching, but only won one WS title.   

 

The 1991-2000 Braves were never on pace to set the all time MLB record for HRs in a season, to go along with their great pitching.

As of now, they are the big favorite to win it all.

Now how often does a particular  season's "big favorite" wind up being the team that does win it all?

I think it is more often than 1 in 6 (the # of division winners) but it is probably less than half the time.

[Frobby]

I do not think we’d be favored to make a deep run, but that’s not to say we couldn’t.  What exactly constitutes a “deep run,” anyway?   Getting to the ALCS?  I’d say we have about a 15% chance of doing that.  

[SilverRocket]

How much truth is there actually to the popular ideas that you need aces to do well in the playoffs, and that good pitching beats good hitting, etc.? I can see that having a top-heavy rotation would be ideal because you basically only need 3 starters, and we basically have that, with Gibson and Irvin likely being put in the pen in October. We just don't have an ace. But we do have a good offense, and that has made up for our average pitching so far... why wouldn't this work in the playoffs?

I haven't found anything convincing searching Fangraphs yet, but I'm curious if anyone has seen articles with studies on this. As is, I lean towards regular season performance translating fine to playoff performance, unless everyone in the rotation is about equal.

[Just Regular]

For Braves, I'm curious to see if Spencer Strider's body can take the load....2022 saw something go, with the Club not getting the A performance.

Apart from the extensions, the fact they got a dogpile Acuna had to sit and watch will I think be helpful for them.     Can you imagine how Adley would be in a couple Octobers if he went out for the year this weekend, we traded for a few generic middle relievers, and James McCann tackles Felix in November.

In Drellich's book, I believe the story ran to the genius guy opposite Sig when Luhnow had everyone together ended up in Atlanta as some of their best people looked for other Clubs in part due to bad culture.

I've still never deep dived into if they were cheating when they got Acuna/Albies to affiliate, and feel thinking collectively the MLBPA should have made Chris Davis gift them $5 million dollars each or something.     There's no million like your first million.

[FlipTheBird]

1 hour ago, Bemorewins said:

Hey. I'm certainly no fan of Tom Brady. But that's one Super Bowl. What about the other 6? Any thoughts on MJ's 6? Kobe's 5? Jeter's 5?

I'm not saying that they didn't find luck/good fortune along the way. But there has to be other controllable factors beyond luck when you are dealing with multiple time champions. The greatest factor can be repeated luck.

On the flip side there's an incredible list of players across many sports that have 0 championships. True legends of the game. Happens.

The Yankees' dynasty is the only one that's directly applicable here, however, as football and basketball are just incredibly different sports, where 1-3 players can literally constitute all a team needs. That doesn't work in baseball. ie. The Los Angeles Angels.

[dzorange]

2 hours ago, deward said:

I think there will be a trade or two, but I think you're setting yourself up for disappointment if you're expecting Elias to get aggressive. That just hasn't been his MO. 

Assuming they stay healthy, I don't see why they wouldn't have as good a shot at making a deep run as any other wild card team. October is all about who's hot at the right time. If they O's roll into a short series playing like they just played in Minnesota, they'll beat anybody. 

Elias hasn't had reason to be aggressive. If the O's are sitting within 2 games of the Rays in two weeks, then he does. Competing for the division is vastly different than trying to compete for the Wild Card.

Two or three weeks ago, the majority of this board wasn't expecting both Cowser and Westburg to be called up based on Elias' history.

[dzorange]

2 hours ago, Bemorewins said:

To those contending that success in the postseason depends largely on "luck", how would you explain the Houston Astros of the last 6/7 years? Were they that "lucky" consistently?

Lucky and being good can go hand in hand, they don't have to be exclusive of one another.

Good teams will capitalize on luck. Or minimize their risk.

[tntoriole]

Any season where I expect them to make playoffs, then I believe also they can win the World Series as well as any other. 
 

New York Mets 1969 intoduced me to the idea that the best teams don’t usually win the WS, the team playing best in October does. 

[banks703]

4 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

So right now, I believe I saw we would be playing Toronto. That’s a toss up series imo.

I certainly wouldn't want to play Toronto IN Toronto. 

 

[banks703]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

I do not think we’d be favored to make a deep run, but that’s not to say we couldn’t.  What exactly constitutes a “deep run,” anyway?   Getting to the ALCS?  I’d say we have about a 15% chance of doing that.  

I just think that it depends on the pitching. If the O's promote GrayRod and he can pitch how he's pitched in Norfolk since the reassignment, that certainly improves their chances. Braddish and Wells, if they continue to hold up in the second half give them at lest two solid, if not good starting options in a playoff series. GrayRod could give them a third. 

They could also get Meansy back in the last month or so of the season. If he's throwing well going into the playoffs, they'll have some good options, especially in a short series. 

Obviously this is all contingent on a series of ifs but I think it's reasonable to believe that Wells and Braddish continue to pitch well. GrayRod may be the wildcard. Three good starters in a playoff series can carry a team. Shoot, looking back through the years, there have been teams who were carried to a World Series title by only two starters. 

Again, all big IFs here, which is why I think they need to upgrade at least one rotation spot. 

[Hallas]

I unironically think that the 6th seed has an easier time in the AL than the 4 seed.  We'd have to play Houston or Toronto with home field advantage?  I'd take Minnesota or Cleveland 7 days a week and twice on Sunday.  If we somehow play ourselves down to a 6 seed we also skip TB until the ALCS.

 

Realistically?  It's the playoffs, anything can happen.  I think the 2 most likely outcomes are that we get stopped by TB in the ALDS or we make it to the WS.  If we make it to the WS I think we lose in 6 to the Braves and have a good shot against anyone else.

 

The division leaders being auto-seeded higher than teams with vastly superior records just throws any semblance of fairness in playoff seeding out the window and is complete horse poop, tbh.