Astro's Model?

[drjohnnyfever1]

When this whole rebuild started the idea was that we were following the Astro's Model that Elias came of age in.  I believe that that is still the model we are following today.  So after reading an article about potential landing spots for Shohei Ohtani, I began to wonder.  Of course, the teams mentioned were both New Yorks, 1/2 of the California teams - Angels and Dodgers, and the Mariners, which I take as nothing more than having some fun with how they chanted for him to come to Seattle at the AS Game, but ya never know.  

Another tidbit I found in an article about the Justin Verlander trade is this:  "To give you an idea of how much talent was in the Astros’ system in 2017: 22 players who appeared with that year’s High-A Buies Creek Astros went on to play in the major leagues." (https://theathletic.com/4378396/2023/04/05/tigers-jake-rogers-justin-verlander-trade-reflections/)

The highest profile FA pitcher we've signed is still Ubaldo Jimenez - which is still a sour memory of our past, was heralded as the beginning of creating a dominant pitching staff... ugh.  So the question is, if we're following the Astros' Model still, is the signing of a TOR starter the signal that we are now moving forward and would/could we be a player in Ohtani?

Personally, my gut says, we aren't in nearly the same position that the Astros were when they dealt for Verlander AND the idea that the Angels wouldn't find a way to keep Ohtani, as they did Mike Trout, seems crazy to me.  But could he be a consideration here?  And not only for us, but other teams that are in the 50 win (+/-5) category?  I think we're still a couple years from a huge splash, but ya never know.  We are performing better than the 2016 Astro's, maybe closer to their 2017 team, when they made the move for Verlander and won the WS for the first time in their impressive 6 year run.

 

[Baltimorecuse]

would/could we be a player in Ohtani?

When the team he's playing for is in town.

Edited July 14, 2023 by Baltimorecuse
add info

[Bemorewins]

38 minutes ago, drjohnnyfever1 said:

When this whole rebuild started the idea was that we were following the Astro's Model that Elias came of age in.  I believe that that is still the model we are following today.  So after reading an article about potential landing spots for Shohei Ohtani, I began to wonder.  Of course, the teams mentioned were both New Yorks, 1/2 of the California teams - Angels and Dodgers, and the Mariners, which I take as nothing more than having some fun with how they chanted for him to come to Seattle at the AS Game, but ya never know.  

Another tidbit I found in an article about the Justin Verlander trade is this:  "To give you an idea of how much talent was in the Astros’ system in 2017: 22 players who appeared with that year’s High-A Buies Creek Astros went on to play in the major leagues." (https://theathletic.com/4378396/2023/04/05/tigers-jake-rogers-justin-verlander-trade-reflections/)

The highest profile FA pitcher we've signed is still Ubaldo Jimenez - which is still a sour memory of our past, was heralded as the beginning of creating a dominant pitching staff... ugh.  So the question is, if we're following the Astros' Model still, is the signing of a TOR starter the signal that we are now moving forward and would/could we be a player in Ohtani?

Personally, my gut says, we aren't in nearly the same position that the Astros were when they dealt for Verlander AND the idea that the Angels wouldn't find a way to keep Ohtani, as they did Mike Trout, seems crazy to me.  But could he be a consideration here?  And not only for us, but other teams that are in the 50 win (+/-5) category?  I think we're still a couple years from a huge splash, but ya never know.  We are performing better than the 2016 Astro's, maybe closer to their 2017 team, when they made the move for Verlander and won the WS for the first time in their impressive 6 year run.

 

First, let me say that I hope that we are following the Astros model and even beyond that I hope that we get Astros’ like results.

But on to your point about Ohtani, he is not a direct comparison at this stage in his career to where Verlander was when the Astros acquired him. 

Ohtani, is a 1 of 1 type player being dominant on the mound and with the bat, so he is value astronomically more than Verlander’s or anyone else in the game (ever, at least in the Free Agency era of the sport). Also, Ohtani is still in his prime, Verlander was considered an aging pitcher who was on a bad contract. I believe that he even passed through waivers at the time? Ohtani is also a pending FA who will command a projected 500 million+ contract. It doesn’t take not possessing a crystal ball to have great assurance that Angelos won’t even entertain bidding at that level, nor could he ever outbid Cohen and a few other clubs like the Yankees and Dodgers even if he wanted to.

Ohtani is a pipe dream at best for us, this just isn’t very realistic.

[Aglets]

We all hope we are going to follow the Astros model.

Unfortunately we have more recent information coming directly from ownership.

https://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/orioles/bs-sp-orioles-john-angelos-next-tampa-rays-astros-20230222-bv6efmtr2zdgtnaktropjm7e4u-story.html

Our owner has said he hopes we are the next Tampa.  Or Cleveland.  Or Milwaukee.

Now what to do those teams all have in common?  Let's be generous and say they all tend to be in the lower half of team salaries.

Also, the Brewers and Rays have never won a WS and the Guardians have one of the longest championship droughts in sports.  I wish someone had followed up with him on that in that interview. 

Not trying to throw cold water on everyone's parade but I think it's important we all work from the same shared set of facts.

I wish it was different.  But until we see evidence to the contrary I think it's important we take these words from Angelos seriously.

Edited July 14, 2023 by Aglets

[geschinger]

36 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

Ohtani, is a 1 of 1 type player being dominant on the mound and with the bat, so he is value astronomically more than Verlander’s or anyone else in the game (ever, at least in the Free Agency era of the sport). Also, Ohtani is still in his prime, Verlander was considered an aging pitcher who was on a bad contract. I believe that he even passed through waivers at the time? Ohtani is also a pending FA who will command a projected 500 million+ contract. It doesn’t take not possessing a crystal ball to have great assurance that Angelos won’t even entertain bidding at that level, nor could he ever outbid Cohen and a few other clubs like the Yankees and Dodgers even if he wanted to.

Agree with this except that I don't think Angelos matters in the equation.  Even if he had carte blanche I don't think Elias would want to get into the bidding.  I think Elias and even moreso Mejdal have done the analysis and know that the type of contract it would take to land Ohtani will almost certainly end up being a mistake.  

The Astros model is the framework I think we'll be working for.  For older players like Verlander - the kept doing 2 year commitments.  They wanted to extend and sign Correa but weren't willing to go more than 6 years ( I think it was through his age 33 season).  They weren't going to do the 10-12 year deal that the market was dictating because I'm sure they still have guys in the org crunching the numbers who know it's a terrible decision to play a player in his mid and late 30s/early 40s at salaries commensurate with their production in their peak years.

 

Edited July 14, 2023 by geschinger

[drjohnnyfever1]

I'm dubious on any big trade or signing, generally; but because he's a clear star, it seems just as likely that an unexpected team could do something, say, unexpected.  Plus, I'd like to live in a world for a few pages of a forum thread where there's an outside chance a dark horse is at play in this.  Ultimately, the Angels would be foolish to let him walk, so I think that is the most likely outcome.

The same is the same until it isn't.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, geschinger said:

Agree with this except that I don't think Angelos matters in the equation.  Even if he had carte blanche I don't think Elias would want to get into the bidding.  I think Elias and even moreso Mejdal have done the analysis and know that the type of contract it would take to land Ohtani will almost certainly end up being a mistake.  

The Astros model is the framework I think we'll be working for.  For older players like Verlander - the kept doing 2 year commitments.  They wanted to extend and sign Correa but weren't willing to go more than 6 years ( I think it was through his age 33 season).  They weren't going to do the 10-12 year deal that the market was dictating because I'm sure they still have guys in the org crunching the numbers who know it's a terrible decision to play a player in his mid and late 30s/early 40s at salaries commensurate with their production in their peak years.

 

I think there is a very small chance the O's pick Ohtani up for the playoff push this year. 

I think there is no chance they are in the running to sign him to a contract beyond this season.

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, geschinger said:

Agree with this except that I don't think Angelos matters in the equation.  Even if he had carte blanche I don't think Elias would want to get into the bidding.  I think Elias and even moreso Mejdal have done the analysis and know that the type of contract it would take to land Ohtani will almost certainly end up being a mistake.  

The Astros model is the framework I think we'll be working for.  For older players like Verlander - the kept doing 2 year commitments.  They wanted to extend and sign Correa but weren't willing to go more than 6 years ( I think it was through his age 33 season).  They weren't going to do the 10-12 year deal that the market was dictating because I'm sure they still have guys in the org crunching the numbers who know it's a terrible decision to play a player in his mid and late 30s/early 40s at salaries commensurate with their production in their peak years.

 

Yea, I’m not sure why this point continues to elude people.

While I’m sure Elias wants a larger budget and be able to do whatever he wants, the bottom line is that he wouldn’t spend much in FA even if he was allowed to. It’s just not going to happen.

It will be shorter term deals, take on short term contracts in trade and extend existing talent.

That’s how he would spend the money. 
 

He’s not going to do the mega 9 figure FA contracts. It’s just not happening.

He came from an org that doesn’t do that. The Rays don’t do that. The Braves don’t do that. These have been arguably the 3 best organizations in the sport, along with the Dodgers, for the last several years.

People need to reconcile themselves to this and stop being upset if they aren’t in the running for mega FA star X. It’s just never going to happen and quite frankly, that’s the exact right decision to make w/r/t those contracts.

[Aristotelian]

3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I think there is a very small chance the O's pick Ohtani up for the playoff push this year. 

I think there is no chance they are in the running to sign him to a contract beyond this season.

Yankees appear to be leading in the Ohtani bidding. 

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Yankees appear to be leading in the Ohtani bidding. 

I saw where Buster said that.

Could be.

As I said I don't think it is likely.  But it is at least conceivable that a large but short term move is made this season.  The window is open and they have the pieces to get a deal done.

[Sydnor]

6 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

He’s not going to do the mega 9 figure FA contracts. It’s just not happening.

He came from an org that doesn’t do that. The Rays don’t do that. The Braves don’t do that. These have been arguably the 3 best organizations in the sport, along with the Dodgers, for the last several years.

People need to reconcile themselves to this and stop being upset if they aren’t in the running for mega FA star X. It’s just never going to happen and quite frankly, that’s the exact right decision to make w/r/t those contracts.

Agreed. Do you think we will see a nine-figure extension? I’m skeptical that ownership will allow it. I do think a player like Gunnar is someone their model probably likes given his youth, and that he’s someone they would want to invest in (just a guess).

[Sports Guy]

Just now, Sydnor said:

Agreed. Do you think we will see a nine-figure extension? I’m skeptical that ownership will allow it. I do think a player like Gunnar is someone their model probably likes given his youth, and that he’s someone they would want to invest in (just a guess).

That’s the $64,000 question.

Now, I’m all for these extensions but I also feel they are completely overrated by fans. I think it’s good to have them for certain guys. I would be much more pressed to get one for Gunnar vs Adley, for example.

 

[sportsfan8703]

The only thing that is left to possibly follow from the Astros model is becoming a top player on the international market to since we’re going to picking later in the draft with and having smaller bonus pools.  Also, starting lock up some of our young talent early on in the Arb process. Especially Gunnar and Adley.  

Here’s things that we aren’t going to follow from the Astros model…

Verlander being a salary dump and being rejuvenated. Sticky stuff?

Charlie Morton and Wade Miley. Sticky stuff. 

Buying low on the wife beating Roberto Osuna. 

Beating on trash cans. 

[sportsfan8703]

27 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I saw where Buster said that.

Could be.

As I said I don't think it is likely.  But it is at least conceivable that a large but short term move is made this season.  The window is open and they have the pieces to get a deal done.

Realistically when you here the Dodgers or Yankees are in on a player, then you know we have no chance. Giolito probably goes to LAD. Ohtani probably goes to NYY, if traded. 

[Jim'sKid26]

What is the "Astros' Model?" Has it ever been well defined?

Just because Elias is a former Astros' executive is he obligated to follow that model?

Is the aforementioned model the right one for this franchise?

It seems rather possible that a team can win by blazing their own trail to success. 

I hope we are following the Orioles model and not following a model that doesn't necessarily fit our circumstances. No square pegs in round holes, please.