What would you have said......?

[Tony-OH]

if I told you in spring training that the Orioles would be in 1st place on July 21st but:

• Cedric Mullins would miss significant time with two stints on the IL
• Grayson Rodriguez would have 7.33 ERA in 11 starts
• Kyle Gibson would have a 4.76 ERA in 21 starts
• Dean Kremer would have a 4.80 ERA in 20 starts
• Cole Irvin would have a 5.11 ERA in 8 starts, 11 games and spent significant time in AAA
• Baker (3.83), Perez (4.88), Voth (4.94), and Akin (6.85) all would take steps back from their 2022 performances
• Mychal Givens would have an 11.25 ERA in just six games over 4 IP
• Dillon Tate and John Means have not pitched in the majors yet
• DL Hall would only pitch in only one game at the majors and be in Florida getting reset
• Ryan Mountcastle would be slashing .233/.268/.424/.692 and lost his job against right-handers to Ryan O'Hearn
• Aaron Hicks would be starting outfielder for the Orioles
• Jorge Mateo would be slashing .214/.264/.346/.610 and lost his everyday gig
• The Yankees would be in last place in the AL East

Now, this is not a negative post at all. What I'm trying to show is that it's not like everything has gone right for this team and they are catching lightning in a bottle. This team has overcome injuries and poor performances from players they were counting on coming into the year, yet here they are in first place.

Now obviously there are a lot of good stories:

• The emergence of Felix Bautista as an absolute dominant force at the back of the bullpen
• Austin Hays slashing .300/.338/.473/.811
• Gunnar Henderson slashing .247/.342/.476/.818 
• Anthony Santander slashing .271/.345/.494/.839
• Adley Rutschman slashing .274/.373/.431/.804    
• The emergence of Ryan O'Hearn, .305/.353/.506/.859
• The emergence of Yennier Cano 1.53 ERA over 41 games and 47 IP.
• Kyle Bradish with a 3.05 ERA in 17 starts
• Tyler Wells with a 3.54 ERA in 18 starts (19 games) despite giving up 22 HRs

Now, the Orioles are playing above their Pythagorean W-L: 53-43, 477 Runs, 429 Runs Allowed by six games, but I just find out it absolutely amazing that this team is in the first place in the hardest division in baseball while everything has not gone perfect. In fact, far from perfect. 

I really don't even have a theory on why they are doing so well overall other than this team just finds ways to win. 

And no matter what, I'm going to try and enjoy the ride!

   

[Hank Scorpio]

Things could get a lot better actually!!!!

[Jagwar]

Excellent observations. It really is incredible that this team is in first place with all of the adversity. 

Now... let's get everyone healthy and add starting/bullpen help at the deadline. Then let's go to war Miss Agnes! 

[Sports Guy]

Well since I didn’t see them being this good this year anyway, I would have said you crazy.

[foxfield]

2 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

if I told you in spring training that the Orioles would be in 1st place on July 21st but:

Cedric Mullins would miss significant time with two stints on the IL
Grayson Rodriguez would have 7.33 ERA in 11 starts
Kyle Gibson would have a 4.76 ERA in 21 starts
Dean Kremer would have a 4.80 ERA in 20 starts
Cole Irvin would have a 5.11 ERA in 8 starts, 11 games and spent significant time in AAA
Baker (3.83), Perez (4.88), Voth (4.94), and Akin (6.85) all would take steps back from their 2022 performances
Mychal Givens would have an 11.25 ERA in just six games over 4 IP
Dillon Tate and John Means have not pitched in the majors yet
DL Hall would only pitch in only one game at the majors and be in Florida getting reset
Ryan Mountcastle would be slashing .233/.268/.424/.692 and lost his job against right-handers to Ryan O'Hearn
Aaron Hicks would be starting outfielder for the Orioles
Jorge Mateo would be slashing .214/.264/.346/.610 and lost his everyday gig
The Yankees would be in last place in the AL East

Now, this is not a negative post at all. What I'm trying to show is that it's not like everything has gone right for this team and they are catching lightning in a bottle. This team has overcome injuries and poor performances from players they were counting on coming into the year, yet here they are in first place.

Now obviously there are a lot of good stories:

The emergence of Felix Bautista as an absolute dominant force at the back of the bullpen
Austin Hays slashing .300/.338/.473/.811
Gunnar Henderson slashing .247/.342/.476/.818 
Anthony Santander slashing .271/.345/.494/.839
Adley Rutschman slashing .274/.373/.431/.804    
The emergence of Ryan O'Hearn, .305/.353/.506/.859
The emergence of Yennier Cano 1.53 ERA over 41 games and 47 IP.

Now, the Orioles are playing above their Pythagorean W-L: 53-43, 477 Runs, 429 Runs Allowed by six games, but I just find out it absolutely amazing that this team is in the first place in the hardest division in baseball while everything has not gone perfect. In fact, far from perfect. 

I really don't even have a theory on why they are doing so well overall other than this team just finds ways to win. 

And no matter what, I'm going to try and enjoy the ride!

   

I think the answer or understanding, is something along the lines of the Aristotle thought:  The whole is greater than the sum of it's parts.

This team is simply a really strong mix.  We tear up the holes and enlarge them every day, but the Orioles don't care.  They are young, talented and as you point out very well, still may not have fully hit their stride.

Many here are going to fret every day, every series the rest of the way.  I am not.  Sure I am going to sweat.  I mean I am no longer looking at the Orioles the way we have been for most of the last 30 years.

I am looking at these guys they way I did from 1966-1983.  

I expect the Orioles, one the games best teams to win.  All the rebuild needs to be complete is a new owner....well and a new lease, but let's not get too wrapped up in details.  

Thanks Tony.  

 

[Tony-OH]

3 hours ago, foxfield said:

I think the answer or understanding, is something along the lines of the Aristotle thought:  The whole is greater than the sum of it's parts.

This team is simply a really strong mix.  We tear up the holes and enlarge them every day, but the Orioles don't care.  They are young, talented and as you point out very well, still may not have fully hit their stride.

Many here are going to fret every day, every series the rest of the way.  I am not.  Sure I am going to sweat.  I mean I am no longer looking at the Orioles the way we have been for most of the last 30 years.

I am looking at these guys they way I did from 1966-1983.  

I expect the Orioles, one the games best teams to win.  All the rebuild needs to be complete is a new owner....well and a new lease, but let's not get too wrapped up in details.  

Thanks Tony.  

 

Good Lord that's almost too much to ask at this point. lol But man that would be the cherry on top.

[Tony-OH]

5 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Well since I didn’t see them being this good this year anyway, I would have said you crazy.

Me too. 

[Sports Guy]

I think it goes to show you how valuable the back of a bullpen is.

WAR does an awful job of determining reliever value imo.

Bautista and Cano are 2nd and 3rd in WPA amongst relievers. I think that is just huge and the real difference in this team this year.

[Moose Milligan]

I would have said baseball is a funny game.  

Also, @Tony-OH, you should have put the Yankees being in last place under the "good stories" section.

[maybenxtyr]

I predicted 79-83 to start the season, so I obviously have no clue how to predict anything.

 

We were talking about it last night and none of my friends can really see exactly how they are where they are. There's not any one aspect where they are excelling.  I'm just going to enjoy the ride. Things could possibly be better if things break right down the stretch.

[Moose Milligan]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

I think it goes to show you how valuable the back of a bullpen is.

WAR does an awful job of determining reliever value imo.

Bautista and Cano are 2nd and 3rd in WPA amongst relievers. I think that is just huge and the real difference in this team this year.

Would agree with this.  I think WHIP becomes a little more important when discussing relievers.  K/BBrate, too.  Those things are important for starters for sure but I agree that WAR doesn't tell the whole story.

[Frobby]

That is a great OP.  This is not a team that has a lot of players playing over their heads, and in fact, a lot has gone wrong.  But it’s a well constructed team that has a good culture and is learning how to win.   

[Tony-OH]

1 minute ago, Moose Milligan said:

I would have said baseball is a funny game.  

Also, @Tony-OH, you should have put the Yankees being in last place under the "good stories" section.

Ha, the first group is just things you wouldn't have thought in spring training, not necessarily the bad things only, even though obviously those were the "bad things".

[DrungoHazewood]

I would have said that's awesome, certainly surprising.

But... people will often say "well, the Orioles could contend this year but everything has to go right." And that's never right. Even the best teams have things go wrong, have players under-perform, have things go sideways and they end up with some random guy playing right field.

The 2014 Orioles won the division by 12 games, despite the '13 team being just over .500 and having the 10th best pitching staff in the AL. Most people picked them to finish 4th or 5th. So everything went right, correct? Not even close. Matt Wieters missed all but 26 games and his replacements hit terribly. Manny went out in July and never returned, being mostly replaced by .221-hitting Ryan Flaherty. Chris Davis not only had a bad year, but was suspended for the rest of the year in September. Nick Markakis had his worst year as a Major Leaguer to that point, OPSing .729. They never really found a regular LFer, with David Lough not hitting and Alejandro De Aza being picked up at the waiver deadline. Ubaldo made 25 mostly cringy starts.  Kevin Gausman spent two months in the minors. Their third starter was Bud Norris, who went 14-33, 5.07 from 2015 to the end of his career.

And they won the division by 12 games. Everything doesn't have to go right, just enough.

[Frobby]

8 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I think it goes to show you how valuable the back of a bullpen is.

WAR does an awful job of determining reliever value imo.

Bautista and Cano are 2nd and 3rd in WPA amongst relievers. I think that is just huge and the real difference in this team this year.

I have trouble mentioning Bautista and Cano in the same breath at this point.   Cano was otherworldly in his first 20 games, but completely human over his last 21.   His overall numbers are still strong, but he’s been very average for two months now.