MLB article on what it would take to get Shohei Ohtani. Has Orioles trading 5 guys. Boston 1.

[Bemorewins]

1 hour ago, Orioles0615 said:

I would do that in a second for Ohtani. 

 

People saying we don't need Ohtani are just plain delusional. For all we know this is pour best chance at a world series. The Yankees and Red Sox are down and Toronto is under performing. You damn well know next year the Yankees and Red Sox will be massivly improved while the Orioles will sit and sign the Gibsons/Lyles of the world and more pointless players to block prospects 

While I am not against the acquisition of Ohtani, I have a hard time accepting this line of thinking. This is not 2014 where we took advantage of the "down years" of the Red Sox and the Yankees. In 2023, now that we have undergone an extreme form of tanking in order to acquire an absurd amount of talent, I can't see a realistic/plausible scenario where either team can acquire more talent than us within their org over the next 2- 3 years (maybe more).

Have you looked at both teams farm systems. They are not going to catch up next year. It's simply not possible to acquire 7/8 top 100 prospects in a single calendar year (which is the gap that we have on them).

Now you might say well that's okay because they can just buy equivalent talent. Well that too would be a fallacy because they simply do not have the financial means within the structure of today's game to make for the talent gap (given where there payrolls already are). No team (save maybe the Mets) can staff a Big League ball club nowadays going the all free agent route. Big time contracts are simply too expensive in today's game. All teams need young, cheap, good players.

In days gone by when the Yanks and Red Sox were maybe 2 of 3/4 super powers in the sport, they could afford to buy most of the best players because there weren't many clubs who could compete with them. Now, it can be argued (especially in the Red Sox case) that the Padres, Phillies, Mets, Dodgers, and Rangers who have the financial means to be at or exceed their buying power. Many of these teams owners have financial means (in particular the Mets and Padres) that are outside of the revenue streams of their teams/orgs.

The Red Sox in particular are in a really bad situation because they are stuck in an in between phase. They are too good to be bad and too bad to be good. They are mediocre with an expensive roster, one real difference making prospect who is in single A, and few difference makers at the Major League level. Even if they could afford to buy 1 or 2 pitchers (which is doubtful that they could even outbid the other high spending teams - no one can outbid the Mets) they still would not have a more talented/better team than the Orioles. In the Yanks case, they have a stars and scrubs kind of roster - high end expensive talent with a bunch of Major League marginal players. Even if they were to say sign another big time FA, that again would in no way give them a talent edge over us. Plus Stanton, Judge, and Cole are all in the age range where recurring injuries should reasonably be expected. Rodon has been injury prone most of his career already.

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Alasdaire said:

I would have zero expectations for a guy with TOS. Nasty nerve injury that usually happens to older guys like Strasburg. Tommy John is much more manageable since guys are younger.

I wasn't going for.a more neutral scenario...

[Can_of_corn]

8 minutes ago, Gurgi said:

I know you are not being obtuse.  No one wants to sign players that suck its just that if the players we sign dont produce they are going to give them every possible chance to play.  I think it must be intentional policy of Elias.  And the only way it makes sense is that this will be a multi year technique.  To generate trust in vet players we might want to sign.  Their agents will know the Orioles are serious about letting them play.   Like the opposite of what the Yankees might do.    It fits pretty well with how Odor was treated last year.  It fits how Frazier is being treated.  The agent community will remember this stuff.  

Seriously we should not be targeting the type of player that would be worried about getting cut if they struggle for a month.

Something like that shouldn't even enter the equation going forward.

[Alasdaire]

4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I wasn't going for.a more neutral scenario...

Then I think the question would be whether it's worth giving up a guy with TOS given how little you would likely get back. How many cents on the dollar did Seth Johnson get last year? Would imagine a guy with TOS is much lower than even that.

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, Alasdaire said:

Then I think the question would be whether it's worth giving up a guy with TOS given how little you would likely get back. How many cents on the dollar did Seth Johnson get last year? Would imagine a guy with TOS is much lower than even that.

No, you don't get it.  You magically know he's going to develop it.  Just like in your scenario I magically knew he was going to be an improved Bradish.

 

[Alasdaire]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

No, you don't get it.  You magically know he's going to develop it.  Just like in your scenario I magically knew he was going to be an improved Bradish.

 

Okay, I'm lost. You were responding to someone else anyway, so I'll see myself out

[Bemorewins]

12 minutes ago, Alasdaire said:

Is there anything wrong with that? If your only definition of success is winning the whole thing, you're going to be disappointed literally all of the time except for a fleetingly rare moment if you're lucky. Having an organizational culture, the roster being composed of "your guys," and preserving hope for the future are worthwhile ends in and of themselves to me.

The Ravens aren't a dynasty, but they have the "Ravens Way" ideology, and you could call most seasons over the past 25 years successful. The Orioles weren't perennial winners under Ripken, but factors that had nothing to do with winning like the narrative around Cal and the new ballpark made for a successful era on the whole.

And even apart from that, I think prioritizing stability and waiting for the right opportunities is a better approach to ultimately going all the way than convincing yourself that the time is NOW.

Do you think the Miami Heat should pay whatever Portland wants for Dame Lillard? It's fundamentally against how they operate. They have their convictions and they look for opportunities to present themselves. It has kept them relevant for a very long time and given them many shots in the finals including multiple rings. I'm sure there are some people within their fanbase clamoring for them to cave to the Blazers and put together whatever package it would take because they have limitless depth and they absolutely must capitalize on their current window. I doubt they'll do that. Because if they don't get Lillard, they'll still be in the mix next year either way. And maybe next year Giannis becomes available and they get him in a way that they couldn't have if they had overpaid for Lillard.

It's like the people who bet on five games or pick ten stocks every single day. That's a recipe for disaster. Have your model and let the plays come to you. If they present themselves then great. If not then that's okay too. Stay alive and relevant, that's the best way to both avoid abject misery and to give yourself a chance at making it big.

First let me say, you can choose to fan and engage the team however you want to. Far be it from me to tell you want feels best and enjoyable for you when it comes to what you want to see from the Baltimore Orioles. I was just restating an observation that I heard earlier today that kind of makes sense to me. 

As far as your comparison of the Ravens to Orioles, the chief difference in the two orgs historically has been the leadership provided by ownership, not in ideology.

As far as defining success for a team's season, I understand as a fan who is in my forties, that most season's will not end hoisting a trophy. All I ask is that the team's that I have a rooting interest in, do whatever they can to build toward that goal every season in some way. From 2019-2021 (most of 2018 when we were clearly out of it so early and even last season to a degree) IMO it served the best interest of the O's not to try to do all they could to win games, but to actually lose. So that they could acquire a massive war chest of talent that would one day level the playing field in the AL East. I would say that mission has been accomplished.

Now, IMO the focus should shift as we are one of the best teams in the AL with a legit shot at a World Series appearance. IMO we have a great opportunity beginning this year to make multiple runs toward title contention. This does not mean that I think we should be reckless and "nuke the future" though I am not sure about the realistic possibility of some fans' fears as far as that goes. I just do not believe that trying to win a championship and attempting to keep a sound foundation for the future are at odds with one another.

The last part about the Miami Heat, Damien Lillard, Giannis Antetokounmpo, the stock market, and sports betting... I got nothing for you on the interrelation of all of that...lol

[24fps]

I just read the SI article speculating on potential Othani trades

https://apple.news/ACoAaCLl_Q36EefngkiG9Ng

I’m left with no alternative to conclude that this whole deal is nothing more than a test of sobriety. With that in mind I’m offering Norby and a single A lottery ticket and if I’m turned down, I’ll see you at the local with a smile on my face and a song in my heart. 

[foxfield]

10 minutes ago, 24fps said:

I just read the SI article speculating on potential Othani trades

https://apple.news/ACoAaCLl_Q36EefngkiG9Ng

I’m left with no alternative to conclude that this whole deal is nothing more than a test of sobriety. With that in mind I’m offering Norby and a single A lottery ticket and if I’m turned down, I’ll see you at the local with a smile on my face and a song in my heart. 

I couldn’t agree more. 

[Gurgi]

16 minutes ago, 24fps said:

I just read the SI article speculating on potential Othani trades

https://apple.news/ACoAaCLl_Q36EefngkiG9Ng

I’m left with no alternative to conclude that this whole deal is nothing more than a test of sobriety. With that in mind I’m offering Norby and a single A lottery ticket and if I’m turned down, I’ll see you at the local with a smile on my face and a song in my heart. 

Its all just mental vomit of writers trying to sell copy.  The Orioles are in no way in hell doing any of those crazy trades.   And the writers even know it before hand.   

[emmett16]

26 minutes ago, 24fps said:

I just read the SI article speculating on potential Othani trades

https://apple.news/ACoAaCLl_Q36EefngkiG9Ng

I’m left with no alternative to conclude that this whole deal is nothing more than a test of sobriety. With that in mind I’m offering Norby and a single A lottery ticket and if I’m turned down, I’ll see you at the local with a smile on my face and a song in my heart. 

I’m pretty much right there with you.  When I first saw the link/article I thought, you know what I’d probably do that….But I missed Ortiz in the deal.  No flippin’ way!  Norby, Hall, Beavers, Stowers is a crap ton of talent.  Take 3 of those 4 and we have a deal.  If not, happy shopping elsewhere.  

[Alasdaire]

42 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

First let me say, you can choose to fan and engage the team however you want to. Far be it from me to tell you want feels best and enjoyable for you when it comes to what you want to see from the Baltimore Orioles. I was just restating an observation that I heard earlier today that kind of makes sense to me. 

As far as your comparison of the Ravens to Orioles, the chief difference in the two orgs historically has been the leadership provided by ownership, not in ideology.

As far as defining success for a team's season, I understand as a fan who is in my forties, that most season's will not end hoisting a trophy. All I ask is that the team's that I have a rooting interest in, do whatever they can to build toward that goal every season in some way. From 2019-2021 (most of 2018 when we were clearly out of it so early and even last season to a degree) IMO it served the best interest of the O's not to try to do all they could to win games, but to actually lose. So that they could acquire a massive war chest of talent that would one day level the playing field in the AL East. I would say that mission has been accomplished.

Now, IMO the focus should shift as we are one of the best teams in the AL with a legit shot at a World Series appearance. IMO we have a great opportunity beginning this year to make multiple runs toward title contention. This does not mean that I think we should be reckless and "nuke the future" though I am not sure about the realistic possibility of some fans' fears as far as that goes. I just do not believe that trying to win a championship and attempting to keep a sound foundation for the future are at odds with one another.

The last part about the Miami Heat, Damien Lillard, Giannis Antetokounmpo, the stock market, and sports betting... I got nothing for you on the interrelation of all of that...lol

Understandable re. wanting the team to be progressing. But the point about the Heat, stocks, and betting is that telling yourself you need to make progress and so desperately looking for ways to manifest that is much riskier than establishing what your values/model/convictions are and waiting for opportunities to cross your desk that meet those criteria.

If the front office is presented with (or put together) a package that represents fair value to them in the sense that they aren't losing much of value and are getting something valuable in return, then I suppose (edit: support) the move. I don't think even the most ardent of fans who are enamored with the prospects would be against that.

But I do not support the starting point that something must be done now because nothing is promised tomorrow and besides the cup runneth over. That's going to lead to overpaying/caving, acquiring something you don't need, or giving up something of great value. That might feel like progress in the moment, but I don't think it ultimately would prove to be over time.

Edited July 22, 2023 by Alasdaire

[Bemorewins]

5 minutes ago, Alasdaire said:

Understandable re. wanting the team to be progressing. But the point about the Heat, stocks, and betting is that telling yourself you need to make progress and so desperately looking for ways to manifest that is much riskier than establishing what your values/model/convictions are and waiting for opportunities to cross your desk that meet those criteria.

If the front office is presented with (or put together) a package that represents fair value to them in the sense that they aren't losing much of value and are getting something valuable in return, then I suppose the move. I don't think even the most ardent of fans who are enamored with the prospects would be against that.

But I do not support the starting point that something must be done now because nothing is promised tomorrow and besides the cup runneth over. That's going to lead to overpaying/caving, acquiring something you don't need, or giving up something of great value. That might feel like progress in the moment, but I don't think it ultimately would prove to be over time.

In most cases you have to give up value in order to get back value in a fair exchange. 

I don’t think that we are ever going to agree on this point. I just feel that even though it has come unexpectedly this is a championship opportunity this season, we can stand pat and almost assuredly fail to reach the World Series, no one with a half objective perspective would favor us to get through the AL in the Fall given the hole in our middle relief and starting rotation. Or we can try to improve the team while still hanging on to all of our foundational pieces i.e. everyday players. It is a risk no doubt but IMO it is worth it.

[Alasdaire]

12 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

In most cases you have to give up value in order to get back value in a fair exchange. 

I don’t think that we are ever going to agree on this point. I just feel that even though it has come unexpectedly this is a championship opportunity this season, we can stand pat and almost assuredly fail to reach the World Series, no one with a half objective perspective would favor us to get through the AL in the Fall given the hole in our middle relief and starting rotation. Or we can try to improve the team while still hanging on to all of our foundational pieces i.e. everyday players. It is a risk no doubt but IMO it is worth it.

Reasonable minds can disagree!

[EddeeEddee]

The MLB.com trade ideas are within reason but those Sports Illustrated suggestions are crazy. 

If anything Ohtani's stock is falling.  He gave up 4 home runs tonight.  Certainly a great pitcher but struggling a bit of late with that blister issue.  Unless he turns it around in a major way for his next start teams will not be offering what the Angels are expecting.