7/22: Ryan O'Hearn, Oh My

[cboemmeljr]

GAME RECAP

[Roll Tide]

Ryan is a good story and easy to root for! 

[BirdinBama]

He sure is!

[Baltimorecuse]

I wonder how many posts there were that threw O'Hearn under the bus.  The stat crowd keeps waiting for a reversion to the means.  

 

[BRobinsonfan]

10 minutes ago, Baltimorecuse said:

I wonder how many posts there were that threw O'Hearn under the bus.  The stat crowd keeps waiting for a reversion to the means.  

 

So you don't think past performance is a good tool to evaluate future performance?  I guess we might as well  just ignore high school and college performance and just draw names out of a hat in future drafts?  

Edited July 23, 2023 by BRobinsonfan

[Baltimorecuse]

4 minutes ago, BRobinsonfan said:

So you don't think past performance is a good tool to evaluate future performance?  I guess we might as well should just ignore high school and college performance and just draw names out of a hat in future drafts?  

We don't have a better tool but it clearly is crude.  Check out Cowser.  

[BRobinsonfan]

2 minutes ago, Baltimorecuse said:

We don't have a better tool but it clearly is crude.  Check out Cowser.  

What do you mean, check out Cowser?  He's had 32 at bats in 13 Major League game.  That's a pretty small sample size on which to evaluate him.  Cal Ripken hit .128 in his first 23 games in the majors.  Brooks Robinson hit .181 in his first 66 major league at bats.    They went on to have pretty successful major league careers.  

[NedFromYork]

I don't expect him to regress much if kept in a platoon.

[Baltimorecuse]

4 minutes ago, BRobinsonfan said:

What do you mean, check out Cowser?  He's had 32 at bats in 13 Major League game.  That's a pretty small sample size on which to evaluate him.  Cal Ripken hit .128 in his first 23 games in the majors.  Brooks Robinson hit .181 in his first 66 major league at bats.    They went on to have pretty successful major league careers.  

He sucks

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Baltimorecuse said:

He sucks

Nuanced take.

[ChosenOne21]

31 minutes ago, BRobinsonfan said:

So you don't think past performance is a good tool to evaluate future performance?  I guess we might as well  just ignore high school and college performance and just draw names out of a hat in future drafts?  

It's a good tool, but past performance is not destiny. People have breakthroughs, and often improve with plain old practice and experience. Obviously Elias saw something he liked with O'Hearn while we were all scratching our heads at the move and so far it's worked out great for Elias.

[ChosenOne21]

11 minutes ago, Baltimorecuse said:

He sucks

I'll bet you always killed it your first two weeks on the job.

[Jagwar]

17 minutes ago, Baltimorecuse said:

He sucks

I haven't put you on ignore because I have an affinity for trainwrecks

[Roll Tide]

31 minutes ago, BRobinsonfan said:

What do you mean, check out Cowser?  He's had 32 at bats in 13 Major League game.  That's a pretty small sample size on which to evaluate him.  Cal Ripken hit .128 in his first 23 games in the majors.  Brooks Robinson hit .181 in his first 66 major league at bats.    They went on to have pretty successful major league careers.  

And it often takes even the best players some ramp up time. Some longer than that like O’Hearn. Honestly, I don’t think Adley is doing what he will eventually do offensively and it took Gunnar a while as his BA is still around .250. 

[BRobinsonfan]

55 minutes ago, ChosenOne21 said:

It's a good tool, but past performance is not destiny. People have breakthroughs, and often improve with plain old practice and experience. Obviously Elias saw something he liked with O'Hearn while we were all scratching our heads at the move and so far it's worked out great for Elias.

The race isn't always to the swift but that's where the smart money goes.  Of course past performance isn't always destiny, but it's a pretty good predictor.  Don't get me wrong, I'm very happy that O'Hearn is performing well... and I hope he defies the odds and continues to perform well.  It sometimes happens... Mike Yastrzemski comes to mind.   But just as Hicks is returning to earth, the odds are O'Hearn does as well. David Newhan, had one magical stretch of 95 games for Baltimore in 2004 at the age of 30 when he hit .311.  Prior to that he hit .162 in parts of 3 seasons in the majors.  The year after hitting .311 he returned to earth and hit just .202 and 3 years after that he was  out of baseball.  

Edited July 23, 2023 by BRobinsonfan