What kind of contract will Santander get as a free agent, assuming performance close to 2022-23 next year?

[CaptainRedbeard]

Josh Bell is a decent recent comp from last offseason: switch hitter, coming into age 30 season in 2023, career 114 wRC+ with 119 and 123 in the two prior seasons. He got 2 yr, $33M with an opt out. Santander will be 30 in 2025 and has a career 108 wRC+ with 120 last year and 124 this year. 

Santander could string together 3 consecutive good offensive years and has more defensive value than Bell so he’ll likely get a 3rd year because of it, but he’s going to be around $15M AAV and not $20M. And almost certainly not get 4 years barring some much improved defensive metrics. 

[wildcard]

25 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I think Castellanos would be a reasonable comp if you wanted to make the case for 5/$100 mm, which is what Castellanos got from the Phillies.   At the time, Castellanos had a career 114 OPS+, had been worth 12.5 rWAR in his career, and was heading into his age 30 season. He was coming off a 138 OPS+ season. 

Right now Santander has a career 109 OPS+, has been worth 7.5 rWAR, and will  be heading into FA beginning with his age 30 season.  Given another 1.3 seasons of performance similar to 2022-23, as assumed in my hypothetical, he’d probably be in the ballpark of Castellanos’ career OPS+ and rWAR figures, maybe just a little below   He’s never had a season as good as Castellanos’ 2021 season entering free agency though.   Plus, I think the last two years have shown that Castellanos was overpaid.  

So, I’m thinking that if Santander continues his 2022-23 production in 2024 (no guarantee that he does), he’s probably getting 4/$75 mm or more, but not Castellanos’ 5/$100 mm.
 

 

Whether is 4/75 or 5/100 I don't think the O's will be paying Santander that money.

[luismatos4prez]

Here are some1B/COF/DH FAs from last year and what they got guaranteed.

Abreu - 58

Haniger - 43

Rizzo - 40

Bell - 33

Pederson - 20

Mancini - 14

JD Martinez - 10 

They're not playing well. As a group, they're barely above replacement level this year. I think Tony should end up in the 35-40 range if he keeps this up, and I wish him the best of luck wherever that is because it won't be here. 

[maybenxtyr]

I think he could end up with something around a 4-5 year deal with an annual of 14-16 million. If it's anywhere near that, I don't believe the O's would or should pay that.

[banks703]

16 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

You probably need to regress his performance to some kind of established level. I like weighting the last four seasons at 4-3-2-1, which puts Santander's established level a little over two wins a season. Then I use the rule of thumb of a player declining half a win a year. So he's going to be worth 2, 1.5, 1, and 0.5 wins over four years. That adds up to 17, 13, 8.5, and 4.3M, for a total of about 43M, add in some inflation and I get maybe $50M over four years.

Yup, I get all of that but I'm also taking into account the contracts of other guys, Schwarber being one in particular.

Overall Ant is a better player than Schwarber. If the O's asked Ant to do nothing but try to hit homeruns and walk like the Phils have done with Schwarber, could Ant hit 40 homers? I think he could. He hit 33 last year. 

You kind of have to throw away two of his last four seasons. One with the Covid year and two with the ankle because I don't think that his agent is going to play up the ankle year but he probably fairly does with the Covid year when he was the team MVP. Another team (or the O's) may not want to consider the Covid year because of how crazy everything was during that season.

Let's say that he produces at the same clip next year and ends up at the 3.75 WAR that he is on track for this year. His last four healthy, non-Covid seasons would put his WAR at: 1.5, 2.1, 3.75 and 3.75 for a total of 11.1 WAR. According to FG, his FA value for 2022 would be $94.35 million. Someone is going to (over)pay for 3.75 WAR for his age 30 - 33 seasons. 

Back to Nelson Cruz.. if the Gnats gave him $15 million for one season I can't reconcile the thought that someone isn't going to give Ant at least that much, even if for a one year deal. Maybe that's Ant's best route when he hits Free Agency - take one year deals. I'll be flabbergasted if Ant doesn't get more than $50 million when he signs his FA contract. 

[Just Regular]

One other angle that could affect the offseason....is Austin Hays or Anthony Santander "better"?

Lot of 2023 baseball to enjoy before really digging in there.

[banks703]

42 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I think Castellanos would be a reasonable comp if you wanted to make the case for 5/$100 mm, which is what Castellanos got from the Phillies.   At the time, Castellanos had a career 114 OPS+, had been worth 12.5 rWAR in his career, and was heading into his age 30 season. He was coming off a 138 OPS+ season. 

Right now Santander has a career 109 OPS+, has been worth 7.5 rWAR, and will  be heading into FA beginning with his age 30 season.  Given another 1.3 seasons of performance similar to 2022-23, as assumed in my hypothetical, he’d probably be in the ballpark of Castellanos’ career OPS+ and rWAR figures, maybe just a little below   He’s never had a season as good as Castellanos’ 2021 season entering free agency though.   Plus, I think the last two years have shown that Castellanos was overpaid.  

So, I’m thinking that if Santander continues his 2022-23 production in 2024 (no guarantee that he does), he’s probably getting 4/$75 mm or more, but not Castellanos’ 5/$100 mm.
 

 

This is a great comp. I used Schwarber but Castellanos is also a really good one for Ant.

I think that you are spot-on that Castellanos was overpaid but that was the market when he signed the deal. I think very similarly, a player like Ant is going to be overpaid as well. Personally I think that something in that range of 4/$75mm is probably more fair for Ant but should he replicate his 2023 and end up in that 3.75 WAR range, which would give him 7.5+WAR over two seasons, I think someone is going to overpay him. That's why I think 4/$100mm is possible on the open market. 

I could see a team like the Angels giving him that money. Moreno loves his Latin players and the Angels have a need for outfielders and hitters to protect Trout (and if Ohtani returns). I don't see any scenario where the O's pay him though. Not when Cowser, Kjerstad and EBJ are going to be in the conversation for playing time at the ML level. Plus the O's have to figure out what they're doing with Hays and Mullins. 

[MarCakes21]

I assume this thread has a follow on thread that says assuming he gets $X/Y years, would you resign him or trade him?

I'll start that path early, as I see three options:

- Resign him for $X/Y years

- Hold on to him for one more year, then extend the QO and see what happens

- Trade him now: Options would be 4 minor leaguers or maybe a package in Seattle centered around one of their young SPs.

 

To add to this, what is a reasonable package in return for Santander in the offseason?

[BohKnowsBmore]

Andrew Benintendi got $75M/5 last offseason; he was a year younger than Anthony will be upon hitting FA and has better OBP/defense, but WAY less power.

Michael Conforto got $36M/2 and is a decent-ish comp as well.

I'm logging my answer as $50M/3, but my actual prediction is $64M/4.

[dzorange]

1 hour ago, Fan4Life said:

I would offer him a 3/$36 deal now and get him through age 31-ish

He would never take that.

[SteveA]

43 minutes ago, oriole said:

I feel like if the league valued Santander anywhere near what we all believe him to be, he’d have been traded by now. I voted 2/25 but I expect something more along the lines of 2/30. 

We are trying to win this year and he is one of our top 3 hitters.   Doubt they were going to trade him this year.

[dzorange]

Similar performance to this year? I'd say at least 3/$45-$50

If he puts up similar numbers next year, the Orioles and Santander would both be getting a lot of attention. No longer a hidden value for the Orioles.

[Fan4Life]

1 minute ago, dzorange said:

He would never take that.

I would go to 3/42. From what I read he's looking at around $10M in arbitration next year so that's essentially 2/$32. 

[sportsfan8703]

Switch hitters.  I think we're going to look back and realize how valuable Santander and Hicks are.  Of course, Adley too.  It's going to be really hard to sell Santander.  Whether we win the WS or lose in the playoffs.  It's tough to trade a bat off of the 2024 team.  

[interloper]

4 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Switch hitters.  I think we're going to look back and realize how valuable Santander and Hicks are.  Of course, Adley too.  It's going to be really hard to sell Santander.  Whether we win the WS or lose in the playoffs.  It's tough to trade a bat off of the 2024 team.  

I agree. I think there's basically zero chance Elias chooses to deal Santander in the off-season. Every good team needs a guy like this. Young veteran, power threat, improved a lot, good clubhouse dude. Plenty of room to mix in Kjerstad with Santander in the mix. 

I think if we see trades off the ML roster this off-season, it will be something like Urias and that's about it. 

Edited August 2, 2023 by interloper