Can the starters just ditch the cutter?

[nvpacchi]

I'll preface by saying I'm not really a fan of the cutter in general.  It's neither fastball nor slider and sits just in the middle on the fence of indecision...  Now if you're Mariano Rivera or Kenley Jansen, throw it all you want because you truly have an elite pitch.  But if it's your third or fourth best pitch, maybe its better to look elsewhere?

Beyond the 4-seam, the cutter is the only pitch that has a HR rate > 1% per pitch thrown, and its 8% barrel rate is again only bested by the 4-seam (which makes sense).  It doesn't generate swinging strikes at an above average rate (11.8% which is bang close to league average), and it hardly generates chases (13.5%).

 

Yesterday when Grayson was grinding in an epic battle against Vladdy and he tossed over a weak cutter for ball 4 (when he has 4 better pitches he could've used) that was it for me.  I wanted to see if the poor cutters the Orioles have been dishing up all year was just my imagination or was it real.

Sadly it is real.  Grayson, Wells, and Kremer have all thrown at least 100 cutters this year - and the results have been unspectacular.  Evidence below:

All three starters are in the unglamorous top 10 list for HR rate per cutter thrown.  With only Lance Lynn dishing up more home runs than Kremer and Wells this year.  On the surface, 'maybe' dishing up HRs isn't so bad if its just a high variance pitch and the remaining cutters don't result in hard contact... Sadly that's not the case...

 

edit: forgot to say its xwoba on balls in play 

Only Kremer barely generates whiffs at an above average clip but the barrel rates and hard contact is obscene, with xwOBAs that turn every hitter into Ohtani.  I included Nola as he appears on the top 20, and you can see he's able to offset his variance by generating plenty of whiffs and weak contact a majority of the time.  And Burnes, even with a rocky start, still suppresses hard contact quite well.

I'm puzzled as to why the pitch is a continued priority for these guys (especially Kremer and Wells); and hopefully it becomes reduced down the strectch.  Kremer's been throwing it about 30% of the time recently, and Wells 20% of the time before his demotion.  Grayson could definitely shelve it 4 pitches that are significantly better.... Time will tell - glad to get this one off my chest a bit!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited August 4, 2023 by nvpacchi

[Moose Milligan]

Good research here. 

[Aristotelian]

I think in Kremers case he just doesn't have other off speed pitches that he can throw with consistent command. 

[Morgan423]

Pretty much matches the general opinion that for the overwhelming majority of pitchers, the cutter is the worst pitch in the fastball family. 

I've always thought that it's almost never used in its (IMO) ideal use case: throw it maybe 2% of the time, in cases where, two or three times a game, you might get a chase in a two-strike count if you chunk it at the break-toward corner, and fool a hitter who thinks it's a 4-seamer. 

If you throw it more than that, hitters get used to seeing the cutter, and quickly learn to spot the differences between it and your 4-seamer, thus removing its primary deceptive quality and rendering it worthless.  And throwing it 20 to 30 percent of the time?  That is equal parts insane and pointless.

[Jim'sKid26]

1 hour ago, nvpacchi said:

I'll preface by saying I'm not really a fan of the cutter in general.  It's neither fastball nor slider and sits just in the middle on the fence of indecision...  Now if you're Mariano Rivera or Kenley Jansen, throw it all you want because you truly have an elite pitch.  But if it's your third or fourth best pitch, maybe its better to look elsewhere?

Beyond the 4-seam, the cutter is the only pitch that has a HR rate > 1% per pitch thrown, and its 8% barrel rate is again only bested by the 4-seam (which makes sense).  It doesn't generate swinging strikes at an above average rate (11.8% which is bang close to league average), and it hardly generates chases (13.5%).

 

Yesterday when Grayson was grinding in an epic battle against Vladdy and he tossed over a weak cutter for ball 4 (when he has 4 better pitches he could've used) that was it for me.  I wanted to see if the poor cutters the Orioles have been dishing up all year was just my imagination or was it real.

Sadly it is real.  Grayson, Wells, and Kremer have all thrown at least 100 cutters this year - and the results have been unspectacular.  Evidence below:

All three starters are in the unglamorous top 10 list for HR rate per cutter thrown.  With only Lance Lynn dishing up more home runs than Kremer and Wells this year.  On the surface, 'maybe' dishing up HRs isn't so bad if its just a high variance pitch and the remaining cutters don't result in hard contact... Sadly that's not the case...

Only Kremer barely generates whiffs at an above average clip but the barrel rates and hard contact is obscene, with xwOBAs that turn every hitter into Ohtani.  I included Nola as he appears on the top 20, and you can see he's able to offset his variance by generating plenty of whiffs and weak contact a majority of the time.  And Burnes, even with a rocky start, still suppresses hard contact quite well.

I'm puzzled as to why the pitch is a continued priority for these guys (especially Kremer and Wells); and hopefully it becomes reduced down the strectch.  Kremer's been throwing it about 30% of the time recently, and Wells 20% of the time before his demotion.  Grayson could definitely shelve it 4 pitches that are significantly better.... Time will tell - glad to get this one off my chest a bit!

 

 

 

 

 

 

There are definitely two camps on the cutter. There is a good size group of people who believe in it entirely. See 

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/1247367-how-the-evolution-of-the-cutter-has-changed-the-game-of-baseball

I was always told that it adversely effected 4 seam velocity and should be avoided at all cost. I think guys who are 4S/CB/CU guys should be very careful throwing a cutter. Conversely, your 2S/SL guys who are looking for a third pitch might benefit from throwing a cutter. Your data speak to this not necessarily being the case. 

Mariano was a unique case. His cutter was in a category all its own, like Maddox 2S and the Big Unit's SL. Mere mortals are not likely to get quite the results he got. It's also worth noting that it was his primary pitch. He threw it 95% of the time. I don't think any of the pitchers you mention throw it as their primary pitch. Maybe that's part of the difference in outcomes. Mariano mastered the cutter. If a guy is throwing it as their 3rd, 4th or 5th best pitch. It not likely to be nearly as effective.

Edited August 3, 2023 by Jim'sKid26
Spelling

[btdart20]

No gonna lie, but my big aha is knowing Aaron Loup is still in the league.  

Good stuff!

[Just Regular]

What if you are a high school pitcher and your cutter is your best pitch?

[vab]

On the one hand any pitch executed badly can get crushed. On the other, it does seem like the cutter is especially dangerous because when it is thrown badly it's essentially a BP fastball. I don't think you want to make a blanket rule that nobody throws it but a lot of guys probably do need to "cut" back on it or ditch it altogether. 

[nvpacchi]

1 hour ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

There are definitely two camps on the cutter. There is a good size group of people who believe in it entirely. See 

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/1247367-how-the-evolution-of-the-cutter-has-changed-the-game-of-baseball

I was always told that it adversely effected 4 seam velocity and should be avoided at all cost. I think guys who are 4S/CB/CU guys should be very careful throwing a cutter. Conversely, your 2S/SL guys who are looking for a third pitch might benefit from throwing a cutter. Your data speak to this not necessarily being the case. 

Mariano was a unique case. His cutter was in a category all its own, like Maddox 2S and the Big Unit's SL. Mere mortals are not likely to get quite the results he got. It's also worth noting that it was his primary pitch. He threw it 95% of the time. I don't think any of the pitchers you mention throw it as their primary pitch. Maybe that's part of the difference in outcomes. Mariano mastered the cutter. If a guy is throwing it as their 3rd, 4th or 5th best pitch. It not likely to be nearly as effective.

thanks for the article - its always crazy what works for one guy may or may not work for the next guy.

I guess its what makes baseball and pitching a never ending cycle of experimentation. perhaps there's a use case for Kremer and Wells to emulate,  but it may take too much time and damage to find out! 

[Pickles]

Cool story, Dan Duquette.  

[Pickles]

1 hour ago, Just Regular said:

What if you are a high school pitcher and your cutter is your best pitch?

Learn to pump gas.

[Jim'sKid26]

1 minute ago, nvpacchi said:

thanks for the article - its always crazy what works for one guy may or may not work for the next guy.

I guess its what makes baseball and pitching a never ending cycle of experimentation. perhaps there's a use case for Kremer and Wells to emulate,  but it may take too much time and damage to find out! 

I was taught that 3 things determine success when trying to get hitters out.

1) start with a consistent release point. If all your pitches start from the same place they are much harder for a hitter to differentiate and much easier for you to locate.

2) change speeds as much or more than you change location. A hitter who sees a pitch in a similar location as the previous pitch is much more likely to swing at it. If the second pitch is at a markedly different velocity it is very difficult to hit.

3) limit or, preferably eliminate, non-competitive pitches. Every pitch thrown should have a purpose.

What pitch or pitches you throw to attain these universal truths is kind of irrelevant, IMHO. 

[tarheeloriole]

Tommy Hunter is still in the MLB? Homerun Hunter still living up to his namesake I see. Thats a name I haven't heard in a while so I had to look it up and of course he is pitching for Buck. Also 6.85 era yikes. Hopefully he leaves one of those cutters over the center and Gunnar warehouses one

[ChosenOne21]

1 hour ago, Just Regular said:

What if you are a high school pitcher and your cutter is your best pitch?

Get injured, come back throwing much less hard, turn your cutter into a 70-80 slider on the scouting scale allowing you to stick around the league for a couple of years, then be on your way out of baseball shortly after your 30th birthday.

[sportsfan8703]

2 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

I think in Kremers case he just doesn't have other off speed pitches that he can throw with consistent command. 

Good example. Kremer doesn’t always have to command but if he can throw the cutter and the sinker, then he can miss barrels. The cutter has a purpose, but it all comes down to execution.