It was driving me nuts

[Aristotelian]

15 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I just double checked.  I never responded to the OP in this thread.

 

So I have no idea what you are talking about.

 

I meant the post that you quoted.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Aristotelian said:

I meant the post that you quoted.

I'm sure they are pretty pleased to have you jump to their defense but I don't think I was making them out to be an idiot.

In point of fact I had to go back and check a third time to even figure out what you were talking about.

I was way snarkier to other people in this thread.

[yark14]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'm sure they are pretty pleased to have you jump to their defense but I don't think I was making them out to be an idiot.

In point of fact I had to go back and check a third time to even figure out what you were talking about.

I was way snarkier to other people in this thread.

I don't mind CoC being snarky to me.  We've all got holes to fill.

[maybenxtyr]

16 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'm sure they are pretty pleased to have you jump to their defense but I don't think I was making them out to be an idiot.

In point of fact I had to go back and check a third time to even figure out what you were talking about.

I was way snarkier to other people in this thread.

I'm good. I'm couch ridden with COVID, so I don't have a whole lot to do but watch baseball and BS on here.

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, maybenxtyr said:

I'm good. I'm couch ridden with COVID, so I don't have a whole lot to do but watch baseball and BS on here.

I hope you have a speedy and full recovery.

Nice to see only one person was offended by me in this thread. 

[maybenxtyr]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

I hope you have a speedy and full recovery.

Nice to see only one person was offended by me in this thread. 

Man, this is the first time I've had it, and I'm grateful for that.

 

On another note, if anyone is ever looking for something to waste a bunch of time on, look for videos on boats coming through the Haulover Inlet. That defines having way more money than brains.

[waroriole]

3 hours ago, dystopia said:

Yeah, having a good record in 1-run games is often correlated with "luck". I remember this from 2012, we heard it every other day. I'm not sure how true it is, but there doesn't seem to be much correlation between the 1-run record and a team's overall record. Texas is 8-14. Miami is 24-10. Rays are 15-19. Braves are 16-12. Phillies are 22-14, and the Padres are 6-18. 

Didn’t the 2012 bullpen have the highest WPA of all time?

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, waroriole said:

Didn’t the 2012 bullpen have the highest WPA of all time?

I think it did...until 2013 when the Rangers beat it.

Almost makes one think that modern bullpen usage might have been a factor.

[Hallas]

Calling teams lucky because they beat their Pythagorean expectation is so 2012.

[eddie83]

I’ll say this. Orioles are a legitimately good team but this is also one of those special seasons. Easily could be a better team and not have the record. 

[Hallas]

So semi related, but my shake-fist-at-clouds moment with stats involves Fangraphs and other projection systems barely budging from their preseason projections.  Fangraphs ZIPS projection still has us below .500 the rest of the way and I think that is absurd.  It's plainly obvious to me that this team is far more talented than those projections gave them credit for, in the preseason, and barring a bunch of injuries I'd be absolutely floored if we only play .500 ball the rest of the way.

 

I kind of get that the O's would be bucking trends by continuing to beat these projections but I think they're just moving way too slowly.

Edited August 7, 2023 by Hallas

[G54377]

It's the same as why we were lopsided in the past. We have ODay/Britton/Johnson/etc, and we just did not screw up leads late in games. It's not an easy thing to do, but we've found it again.

[dystopia]

6 hours ago, Hallas said:

So semi related, but my shake-fist-at-clouds moment with stats involves Fangraphs and other projection systems barely budging from their preseason projections.  Fangraphs ZIPS projection still has us below .500 the rest of the way and I think that is absurd.  It's plainly obvious to me that this team is far more talented than those projections gave them credit for, in the preseason, and barring a bunch of injuries I'd be absolutely floored if we only play .500 ball the rest of the way.

 

I kind of get that the O's would be bucking trends by continuing to beat these projections but I think they're just moving way too slowly.

I think it's pretty clear these projections and predictions by ZiPS/Baseball Prospectus/PECOTA/whatever aren't worth a sack of bat droppings. According to Baseball Prospectus' preseason projections, the Orioles are only going to win 4 more games. They're stupid and useless. 

[sportsfan8703]

I don’t think these projections factor in enough that we’re a young ball club that is getting better. Gunnar in April is not the Gunnar he is now. Everyone is growing and getting better. For the most part. Even Hyde. 

[dystopia]

2 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I don’t think these projections factor in enough that we’re a young ball club that is getting better. Gunnar in April is not the Gunnar he is now. Everyone is growing and getting better. For the most part. Even Hyde. 

Then they’re worthless.