Red Sox Series III

[Frobby]

The O's head for Fenway for 3 games with the Red Sox, who have split with the O's 3-3 so far this year, including a Sox 2-1 series win to open the season.   That series was marred by some poor Orioles pitching and even worse outfield defense that featured poor play by all of the outfiielders, and most memorably, a Ryan McKenna drop of a routine fly that would have ended Game 2 with an Orioles win.  There's been a lot of water under the bridge since then.   The Red Sox's record stands at 72-68, 16.5 games behind the Orioles and 5 games out of the final wild car spot, hanging by a thread.   This weekend's likely pitching matchups are:

Bradish (10-6, 3.03 ERA) vs. Houck (4-8, 5.07).  Houck was injured mid-season, but has been essentially the same guy since coming back as he was in the early part of the year.   He faced the O's twice in April, allowing 3 runs in 5 IP in the first inning and 4 runs (3 earned) in 5 innings the second outing.  Bradish saw the Red Sox in late April and got destroyed, allowing 7 runs in 2.1 IP in by far his worst outing of the year.

Flaherty (8-8, 4.84 overall; 1-2, 6.66 with the O's) vs. Sale (6-3, 4.46).   The O's absolutely pounded Sale the two times they saw him in April, scoring 7 runs in 3 innings in early April, and 5 runs in 5 innings in late April.  He missed a bunch of starts between June 1 and August 11, but has looked about the same since coming back as he was before his injury.  Flaherty has never faced the Red Sox.

Rodriguez (5-3, 4.91) vs. Bello (11-8, 3.61).   Bello has been the Red Sox's most reliable and consistent starter.   He hasn't faced the Orioles in 2023.  Last year, he allowed 3 runs in 5.1 innings in his lone start against the Birds.   Rodriguez has never faced Boston.   

If it comes down to the bullpens, Boston's is about league average at 4.24 ERA, while the O's are 3rd in the league at 3.53.  Despite their average ERA, the Sox have the best save rate in the AL, at 75%.  So, it's a more effective bullpen than many of the ones we have faced recently.

On offense, the Sox average 4.98 runs/game to the O's 5.04, and sport a 104 OPS+ to the Birds' 106.   Not surprisingly, they hit better in the friendly confines of Fenway, averaging 5.25 runs/game and an .811 OPS at home, vs. 4.72 runs/game and .722 OPS on the road.   

Overall, it looks like another hard-fought AL East battle.   Hopefully the O's are up to the challenge.

 

 

[Gunnar]

Definitely can't overlook the Sox. I would be VERY happy with 2/3.

[dystopia]

Boston is not playing well. 3-7 in their last 10. Sweeping them would be awesome, as I love long winning streaks. Two out of three should be the goal though, and 1 out of 3 certainly wouldn’t be the end of the world. 

[Aristotelian]

I can see us losing this series. Sale is scary no matter what is ERA is. Get it to the bullpen and I like our chances. Hoping 2 of 3, bummed but not suicidal with 1 of 3. 

[deward]

Figures the game I'm going to (Saturday) gets the worst pitching match-up. Hopefully they can kick Sale around again.

[Moose Milligan]

Flaherty's ERA with the Orioles is 6.66?  What else do you need to know?

This series makes me a bit nervous, the Sox can thump.  And I think Bello is one of the more underrated starters in the game.  I think we can tune up Sale pretty good as he's no longer the force that he used to be, but he can also have a strong start out of nowhere.  

2/3 is always the goal.  

It's also worth mentioning that the Mariners are in town for four against the Rays starting tonite.  And they've cooled off a little bit, they're 5-5 in their last 10.

[scarey1999]

Outside of us taking the series, I’d like to see Gunnar go 10-15 with several home runs and Casas take a series 0-for to put the ROY debates to bed. 

[Moose Milligan]

20 minutes ago, scarey1999 said:

Outside of us taking the series, I’d like to see Gunnar go 10-15 with several home runs and Casas take a series 0-for to put the ROY debates to bed. 

The ROY race is a WAR race.  As long as Gunnar has him, he'll be fine.  Gunnar gets bonus points for being arguably the best player on the best team in the AL and playing a premium defensive position.

That said, I agree.  I'd love to see Casas hit a wall.

[DirtyBird]

41 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

2/3 is always the goal.  

Not against turd teams

[Moose Milligan]

2 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

Not against turd teams

I don't think the Red Sox are a turd team.

[DirtyBird]

5 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I don't think the Red Sox are a turd team.

Correct.

[Morgan423]

11 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I don't think the Red Sox are a turd team.

5 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

Correct.

There are no turd teams in the AL East, the worst team in the division has played .500 ball this year.

Not sure why the poster in question keeps seriously devaluing the Red Sox.

[DirtyBird]

3 minutes ago, Morgan423 said:

There are no turd teams in the AL East, the worst team in the division has played .500 ball this year.

Not sure why the poster in question keeps seriously devaluing the Red Sox.

I am not sure if you are talking about me, but I never devalued the Red Sox. I responded to a post that said the goal is "ALWAYS" 2/3. Always would be referring to all teams, not the Red Sox.

[Frobby]

4 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

I am not sure if you are talking about me, but I never devalued the Red Sox. I responded to a post that said the goal is "ALWAYS" 2/3. Always would be referring to all teams, not the Red Sox.

Its one thing to have a “goal,” and another thing to have unrealistic expectations.   Honestly, the goal is to win every game and sweep every series.  But we aren’t going to sweep every series, including against “turd teams” as you put it.  If we’d lost a game to the Angels, that wouldn’t have been a crime against humanity.  It would have been a mild disappointment.  This team has done an excellent job of beating up on the weaker teams, but no team wins all its games against bad teams. 

[Rbiggs2525]

Would be really nice to put this team away. Especially since the he Rays are doing a 4 game set against Seattle. Boston has a deep lineup of average hitters who can get hot. Need to pitch well and Bradish is the perfect tone setter for the series.

 

I also think it will be interesting to see how Flaherty pitches to McCann on Saturday. Not only has McCann been better at throwing out runners but I like his pitch calling better. Not to say there is anything wrong with Adley.

Edited September 7, 2023 by Rbiggs2525