Will DL Hall replace Bautista in 2024?

[Yossarian]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Well, I wouldn’t call it fantastic but I would definitely agree he had a good half season.

But he is unreliable and some of his peripherals don’t say he’s as good as his ERA showed.

The Os have the money and trade assets to bring in another legit TOR guy and that is exactly what they should be doing.

Now, if you want to also trade Kremer and have Wells take his spot I’m ok with that although I personally would upgrade 2 starters.

Didn't Wells lead the majors in WHIP up until he broke down?  He gets people out, which is important.   Some were concerned that his strikeout numbers weren't great, but I wouldn't care, as long as he gets people out and doesn't walk a bunch of people.   His biggest question is durability over a 162 game season.

[Aristotelian]

1 minute ago, Yossarian said:

Didn't Wells lead the majors in WHIP up until he broke down?  He gets people out, which is important.   Some were concerned that his strikeout numbers weren't great, but I wouldn't care, as long as he gets people out and doesn't walk a bunch of people.   His biggest question is durability over a 162 game season.

Actually his K/9 jumped pretty dramatically from last season, from 6.8 to 8.9. Sports Guy may be referring to his career peripherals maybe, but last year's everything was good except for HR/9. 

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, Yossarian said:

Didn't Wells lead the majors in WHIP up until he broke down?  He gets people out, which is important.   Some were concerned that his strikeout numbers weren't great, but I wouldn't care, as long as he gets people out and doesn't walk a bunch of people.   His biggest question is durability over a 162 game season.

In the first half this year, his K rate was solid and his walk rate was excellent.

However, the HR rate was high, his BABiP was a completely unsustainable 202 and his FIP was 4.61, which was almost 1.5 runs higher than his actual ERA.

What he was doing was not sustainable. And then he broke down.

It’s not that he can’t be a back end starter. The bar for that isn’t that high.

But the Os do need to upgrade the rotation and you aren’t upgrading from Bradish, Means or GRod.

[vab]

I think Wells is that bulk reliever we need. He can't hold up in the starting rotation and you certainly don't want a homer-prone guy in the back-end so that may be his niche. 

[OriolesMagic83]

With Means back and Bradish emerging as a bona fide ace along with Grayson showing he is reaching his potential, the need in the starting rotation isn't as great.  I would still like to upgrade the 2024 rotation even with Kremer being effective and Wells being good when his arm was fresh.  I'm not sure that 2024 Hall improves the rotation.  He is likely to look like early season GrayRod.  He could likely being an effective back end bullpen guy out of spring training.  There will definitely be a need in the bullpen for a high leverage guy who can get K's. 

 w

[SilentJames]

The X-factor here is Cano. If the Cano we see now is the "real," Cano we might have our answer.

[Frobby]

43 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

In the first half this year, his K rate was solid and his walk rate was excellent.

However, the HR rate was high, his BABiP was a completely unsustainable 202 and his FIP was 4.61, which was almost 1.5 runs higher than his actual ERA.

What he was doing was not sustainable. And then he broke down.

I guess we’ll just agree to disagree.  The three years Wells has been in the majors, here’s his actual ERA vs. xERA:

2021: 4.11/3.60

2022: 4.25/3.78

2023: 3.64/4.01

For me, xERA is vastly better than FIP, which utterly dtsregards quality of contact except for homers.  And xERA shows there’s been nothing remotely unsustainable in Wells’ performance.  

To me, stamina through a season is the only serious question about Wells.  He was one of the better starters in the first half of the season.  
 

[Say O!]

5 hours ago, wildcard said:

Elias had Wells break in as a reliever in 2021.  He became a starter in 2022.   Bautista will hopefully be back in 2025.   Hall could be a reliever in 2024 and in the rotation in 2025.

This.  Elias thinks in multi-year plan mode, so we should consider how to stack the team over 2024 and 2025 beyond.

I could see 2024 with Wells and Hall in bullpen while go out an acquire SP (non Gibson/Irvin type) that can be a rotation piece for 2024 and 2025+.  That provides some insurance should Means price himself out of Baltimore after next year as FA.  And then can consider moving one or both Wells/Hall back to rotation in 2025.

Edited October 3, 2023 by Say O!

[Sports Guy]

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

I guess we’ll just agree to disagree.  The three years Wells has been in the majors, here’s his actual ERA vs. xERA:

2021: 4.11/3.60

2022: 4.25/3.78

2023: 3.64/4.01

For me, xERA is vastly better than FIP, which utterly dtsregards quality of contact except for homers.  And xERA shows there’s been nothing remotely unsustainable in Wells’ performance.  

To me, stamina through a season is the only serious question about Wells.  He was one of the better starters in the first half of the season.  
 

So he’s basically a 4 ERA pitcher that breaks down at 100 innings.

You want to rely on that as one of your starters when you the resources to essentially do what you want?

And btw, as was discussed last week, inducing weak contact isn’t really a sustainable skill. FIP is based on the things a pitcher can control, not what they can’t control.

Edited October 3, 2023 by Sports Guy

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

So he’s basically a 4 ERA pitcher that breaks down at 100 innings.

You want to rely on that as one of your starters when you the resources to essentially do what you want?

And btw, as was discussed last week, inducing weak contact isn’t really a sustainable skill. FIP is based on the things a pitcher can control, not what they can’t control.

So you think FIP is more reliable xERA?  I don’t.  Admittedly, I don’t know if the issue has been studied.  

[btdart20]

I don't think DL Hall will replace Bautista.  At least not out of ST.  I fully expect them to sign some type of BP help that'll push Hall down the food chain.

[Jagwar]

Find a TOR starter and a backend BP pitcher, either through free agency or trades. 

[wildcard]

Every off season we see O's fans wanting the O's to sign top of the order starters, closers and big hitters.

And Elias signs Lyles, Gibson, Givens and Frazier.

Fact is the O's develop their best players and fill gaps with average players on one year contracts.

Edited October 4, 2023 by wildcard

[OriolesMagic83]

7 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

In the first half this year, his K rate was solid and his walk rate was excellent.

However, the HR rate was high, his BABiP was a completely unsustainable 202 and his FIP was 4.61, which was almost 1.5 runs higher than his actual ERA.

What he was doing was not sustainable. And then he broke down.

It’s not that he can’t be a back end starter. The bar for that isn’t that high.

But the Os do need to upgrade the rotation and you aren’t upgrading from Bradish, Means or GRod.

O's rotation was a lot healthier than the Rays in particular and Dodgers and a lot of other teams.  God forbid the O's lost 2 starters from their rotation, they would be a lot worse than the Rays,  I believe the Rays lost at least 3 of their starters for the season  plus some other serious injuries.  It's amazing the Rays were able to bounce back as much as they did.  Need to be a minimum of 7 starters deep and that doesn't count emergency starter types, imo.

[Sports Guy]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

So you think FIP is more reliable xERA?  I don’t.  Admittedly, I don’t know if the issue has been studied.  

I think FIP focuses on the most important things that they can control.