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The four teams that won 99+ games are 1-8 in the postseason so far

SteveA

By SteveA
in Orioles Talk

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tntoriole Hangout Grand Counsel

tntoriole

Posted
Posted
54 minutes ago, Spy Fox said:

It doesn’t necessarily “mean” much, but it shows that in short baseball series between good teams anything can happen. And not every failure is due to mental/emotional failures by the players & managers. 

In a short series even between bad teams and good teams, the bad teams can and do win.    

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laxtonto Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

laxtonto

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31 minutes ago, EddeeEddee said:

Or it possibly means that the extra days off can have a negative effect.  Probably not exactly but not totally discounting it.

Famgraphs did a deep dive on this this week and it looks like it is just random variation/noise than anything else

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Hallas Hangout Grand Counsel

Hallas

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I think that having a day off both before and after the wild card series isn't right.  They should remove one of those days off.  The extra days off take away a lot of the advantage that bye teams get by being allowed to set their rotation, and the layoff adds an unpredictable layer.  The biggest advantage to the bye teams would be had by making the WC winners play the day after the scheduled game 3.  It would force the starters of game 1 WC back a day and virtually guarantee that WC teams can't take advantage of a 2-aces-and-pray strategy in the LDS.

 

I'm not convinced that the layoff is bad for the bye winners but being the bye winner doesn't seem to have enough incentive right now.

 

The O's didn't lose because of this, they lost because they got bludgeoned by a scary Texas offense that went on a heater.  But I don't really think it's good for the playoff format to introduce uncertainty for the top teams in a playoff format that is already at the limit of inclusivity.

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drjohnnyfever1 Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

drjohnnyfever1

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5 hours ago, Hallas said:

I think that having a day off both before and after the wild card series isn't right.  They should remove one of those days off.  The extra days off take away a lot of the advantage that bye teams get by being allowed to set their rotation, and the layoff adds an unpredictable layer.  The biggest advantage to the bye teams would be had by making the WC winners play the day after the scheduled game 3.  It would force the starters of game 1 WC back a day and virtually guarantee that WC teams can't take advantage of a 2-aces-and-pray strategy in the LDS.

 

I'm not convinced that the layoff is bad for the bye winners but being the bye winner doesn't seem to have enough incentive right now.

 

The O's didn't lose because of this, they lost because they got bludgeoned by a scary Texas offense that went on a heater.  But I don't really think it's good for the playoff format to introduce uncertainty for the top teams in a playoff format that is already at the limit of inclusivity.

This makes sense to me, but, honestly, I wish there were no breaks for any of the teams until the WS round is set.  Maybe have 2-3 days off before beginning the Playoffs from the season's end... idk.   But wait for a "break" or 5 days or so until after the WS round is set.  Have the teams seeded based on record from round one.    The better teams, theoretically, would get additional rest with closing out series faster.  I don't think there's any advantage for the teams that earn the bye, maybe some additional challenges, actually, but rolling thru with no breaks for anyone and playing it like an additional round of the regular season with the teams seems more reasonable to me.

You're still going to have the teams entering the Playoff round hot or cold from the season, so there's always that team(s) that's going to surprise or let down.

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DrungoHazewood Hangout Grand Counsel

DrungoHazewood

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Posted
7 hours ago, SteveA said:

The other 8 teams, none of whom won more than 90 games, are a combined 17-10.

Don't know what it means.   But it's interesting.

Means what it's always meant: baseball is a game where lopsided odds in any game are 60/40. Any playoff game or series is little better than a slightly weighted coin flip. I said this before the series started: playoffs generate revenue and excitement, but tell us very little about which team is best.

I mean, the '69 Orioles were the best team in franchise history. They lost in the tournament, because that's what baseball tournaments do.

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DrungoHazewood Hangout Grand Counsel

DrungoHazewood

Posted
Posted
6 hours ago, Hallas said:

I think that having a day off both before and after the wild card series isn't right.  They should remove one of those days off.  The extra days off take away a lot of the advantage that bye teams get by being allowed to set their rotation, and the layoff adds an unpredictable layer.  The biggest advantage to the bye teams would be had by making the WC winners play the day after the scheduled game 3.  It would force the starters of game 1 WC back a day and virtually guarantee that WC teams can't take advantage of a 2-aces-and-pray strategy in the LDS.

 

I'm not convinced that the layoff is bad for the bye winners but being the bye winner doesn't seem to have enough incentive right now.

 

The O's didn't lose because of this, they lost because they got bludgeoned by a scary Texas offense that went on a heater.  But I don't really think it's good for the playoff format to introduce uncertainty for the top teams in a playoff format that is already at the limit of inclusivity.

The layoff is a rounding error either way. You could argue that it moves the needle a few percent either way. If the O's burnt out pen from a few weeks ago was that way going into the playoffs I'm sure they'd have been overjoyed for the break.

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