Some potential moves for this offseason

[Bemorewins]

10 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I think we have a very good comp in Teoscar Hernandez, who was traded last winter for reliever Erik Swanson and minor league pitcher Adam Macko.  Hernandez had 5.097 years of service and was due to be a free agent at the end of 2023.   He took Seattle to arbitration after the trade and lost, earning a salary of $14 mm.  Going into the trade, in 651 games he’d been worth 10.7 rWAR and had a career OPS+ of 121, and in the season before the trade he’d been worth 2.8 rWAR and had an OPS+ of 128.  By conparison, Santander in 591 games has been worth 7.9 rWAR with a career OPS+ of 109, and in 2023 was worth 3.0 rWAR and had a 121 OPS+.   Pretty much by any measure, Hernandez was a somewhat more valuable trade chip than Santander based on those numbers.  

Swanson, at the time of the trade, had three years of control remaining and was coming off a season of throwing 53.2 IP at a 1.84 ERA, worth 1.7 rWAR. That earned him a salary of $1.25 mm this year. But his career numbers were significantly worse than that. 4.13 ERA and 0.9 rWAR.  The minor leaguer Macko was not ranked in the Mariners top 32 prospects on the Fangraphs list and apoears to just be a throw-in.  

Now, I think Toronto may have sold cheap due to luxury tax considerations that the Orioles don’t have, but this gives you some idea of the type of return we’d likely get for Santander.

 

Got it. I appreciate this information to give some context in terms of what we can reasonably expect.

[zweem]

Seattle maybe the unicorn in preferring ML vets over prospects. They need batting help-- so Mounty and Hays for Woo.

 I really, really like Skubal--- so--- Woo, Urias and Stowers for Skubal.

Roberts is a dream--- so---Mullins, Westburg, Kerstadt, Fabian and Povich.

Allows us to keep Cowser, Mayo and Bassalo. 

[now]

12 minutes ago, zweem said:

Seattle maybe the unicorn in preferring ML vets over prospects. They need batting help-- so Mounty and Hays for Woo.

 I really, really like Skubal--- so--- Woo, Urias and Stowers for Skubal.

Roberts is a dream--- so---Mullins, Westburg, Kerstadt, Fabian and Povich.

Allows us to keep Cowser, Mayo and Bassalo. 

Personally I'd keep Kjerstadt over Cowser. And not just because of SSS.

[Hallas]

I was going to hate on some of these trades, but I assumed that Robert was a corner OF, not a CF with plus defense.  Obviously health is a concern but even if he's only in the lineup for 2/3 of the year he's still a pretty good player overall, especially since we're keeping Mullins in your proposal.

 

I generally like the thinking.  My two biggest objections are that I don't like the Westburg for Woo trade, and I don't think we need to trade Santander.  I appreciate that Woo didn't look lost as a rookie, and he probably has some upside, but I'd rather trade a little more for someone like Gilbert, who's got quite a bit of team control and has a longer track record of success.

 

With Santander, he provides platoon-proof insurance against Mayo making the big league club and scuffling.  We're already trading a lot of our minor league depth and 2 major league starters.  I don't think we should trade Santander, and especially not for a bullpen arm.  I also don't really agree with signing Kimbrel, but I'd understand that move.  I tend to think that we should trust the process with bullpen arms.  The last 2 years we've found a ton of value  from scrap heap guys in the bullpen.  That has been a legitimate source of success for teams in the past (mid-2000s Yankees and present-day Rays both come to mind.)  There's no real reason (IMO) to invest real money and/or talent that could be used elsewhere.  I'd rather make a bigger trade for an ace or high-end #2 starter.

Edited October 13, 2023 by Hallas

[foxfield]

I don’t want to sound like Charley Brown getting ready to kick the football…

 

I do not think JA is gonna spend a fortune. But if Elias takes him a deal and says this can get your family a WS title I think his ego will make it hard to resist. 
 

He gets some credit for allowing Elias to do his thing…albeit on the cheap. 
 

But if he can get a title that his Daddy never could, I think that allure is more important than most of us give credit…

So…no wild spending but…this year we really are gonna kick that football!

[Sports Guy]

2 hours ago, Hallas said:

I was going to hate on some of these trades, but I assumed that Robert was a corner OF, not a CF with plus defense.  Obviously health is a concern but even if he's only in the lineup for 2/3 of the year he's still a pretty good player overall, especially since we're keeping Mullins in your proposal.

 

I generally like the thinking.  My two biggest objections are that I don't like the Westburg for Woo trade, and I don't think we need to trade Santander.  I appreciate that Woo didn't look lost as a rookie, and he probably has some upside, but I'd rather trade a little more for someone like Gilbert, who's got quite a bit of team control and has a longer track record of success.

 

With Santander, he provides platoon-proof insurance against Mayo making the big league club and scuffling.  We're already trading a lot of our minor league depth and 2 major league starters.  I don't think we should trade Santander, and especially not for a bullpen arm.  I also don't really agree with signing Kimbrel, but I'd understand that move.  I tend to think that we should trust the process with bullpen arms.  The last 2 years we've found a ton of value  from scrap heap guys in the bullpen.  That has been a legitimate source of success for teams in the past (mid-2000s Yankees and present-day Rays both come to mind.)  There's no real reason (IMO) to invest real money and/or talent that could be used elsewhere.  I'd rather make a bigger trade for an ace or high-end #2 starter.

I’d rather have Woo than Gilbert..and it’s not particularly close for me.

Edited October 14, 2023 by Sports Guy

[Hallas]

10 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I’d rather have Woo than Gilbert..and it’s not particularly close for me.

Is it because of age?  Gilbert is still prearb and has 2 strong seasons under his belt.  Pitcher aging curves are weird so while younger is better, Woo's age doesn't overcome Gilbert's performance for me.

Edited October 14, 2023 by Hallas

[ScGO's]

My dad is a Brewers Fan since he was raised in Wisconsin and now lives there again as a retiree. The family lived in Maryland while I was growing up, hence the O's Fandom

He said the Brewers are starved for offense but they won the division with pitching and defense. Sounds like Burnes will be traded and I think we could use Burnes, and since he has one year left on his arbitration, he's sort of the next in line of progression for 1 year deals considering cost and talent (Lyles, Gibson, Burnes).

I've also heard rumors about the Brewers wanting to trade Yelich, I wouldn't mind taking on that contract if it gives us bargaining power in the trade. He's not a bad fit as he's essentially Nick Markakis right now. I'll take that floor as he's still productive and offers some leadership

O's Get: Corbin Burnes, Christian Yelich, Devin Williams, Cooper Pratt, Jacob Misiorowski, Ethan Small

Brewers Get: Santander, Hayes, Mountcastle, Urias, Norby, Stowers, Max Wagner, Hudson Haskin

I think the O's can absorb the contract of Yelich and he's still a good player, just a 3+ WAR player instead of a 7+ WAR. Might be on the upswing after down years in 21 and 22 (Still OPS+ over 100). It is 5 years left on the contract, so we might have to swallow years 4 and 5; they might not be so hot. Might need to slide into the DH role as well

They could consider signing Burnes long term, but Angelos seems to heavily believe that investing mass sums of money in pitching is not fiscally responsible. Probably only 1 year, but it could be a great year with Burnes, Bradish, Means, GrayRod, etc)

Williams probably needs some prying, but they may want to sell high on a RP since he only has 2 years left. He'd be a great replacement for Bautista, and in year two, both will be in the back end.

Santander, Hayes, and Mountcastle are all huge upgrades offensively in the OF/1B/DH spots for the Brewers compared to this past season. Hayes and Mountcastle probably project better offensively away from Camden Yards too. Urias is actually an offensive upgrade too, but it also puts him in the same organization as his brother.

I think taking on the Yelich money allows Elias some ability to negotiate with the prospect return. We get a couple pitchers and a Gunnar Henderson comp and they get some offensive prospects that are blocked

 

[Sports Guy]

24 minutes ago, Hallas said:

Is it because of age?  Gilbert is still prearb and has 2 strong seasons under his belt.  Pitcher aging curves are weird so while younger is better, Woo's age doesn't overcome Gilbert's performance for me.

The age difference and more service time is part of it.

Gilbert is the better pitcher in terms of walks but Woo misses more bats, gets more Ks and his statcast data is really good.

Now of course it’s a smaller sample size for Woo but he was also a highly ranked prospect (as Gilbert was) and I just like the profile a little more.

[TonySoprano]

No 3 team trades?  SG is getting conservative on us.

This guy popped up in my facebook feed  https://eutawstreetreport.com/orioles-offseason/

[baltfan]

@Sports Guy Your second trade is a crazy overpay.  I am struggling to remember any team giving up that much for any player and Mena isn’t some top prospect.  Robert is a great fielder but he barely walks and is often hurt.  

[baltfan]

10 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

I’m going into this offseason with the expectation that I will believe this is a borderline playoff team entering the season unless the young players take huge steps forward.

I think it will be an offseason of re-arranging the deck chairs and hoping for a different result.

Why would it be crazy to think young guys will take a big step.  Sure some will fail, but some will also succeed.  I know the Sox looked in good shape a few years back, but they have terrible management and still made the playoffs with a coach way past his prime who did lots of dumb stuff. 

[SemperFi]

17 hours ago, DirtyBird said:

Bradfield can't hit

He wasn't selected because of his hit tool, he was selected for his 80 speed and 70 field as well as his on base skills (.473) so far.  Almost every walk/single is essentially a double, he also frees up the right side of the infield for someone with elite bat skills like Holliday (if he's not leading off).  He speed disrupts the game offensively and defensively, and he is an ideal player in the Camden Yards OF.  Like many prospects he may crash and burn but there aren't any others around with 70/80 grades.  

[Bemorewins]

15 hours ago, zweem said:

Seattle maybe the unicorn in preferring ML vets over prospects. They need batting help-- so Mounty and Hays for Woo.

 I really, really like Skubal--- so--- Woo, Urias and Stowers for Skubal.

Roberts is a dream--- so---Mullins, Westburg, Kerstadt, Fabian and Povich.

Allows us to keep Cowser, Mayo and Bassalo. 

I would rather have Kjerstad than Cowser. I believe that Kjerstad will have an impact/elite bat. I’m not sure that Cowser will have any elite tool at the ML level.

[SemperFi]

12 hours ago, ScGO's said:

My dad is a Brewers Fan since he was raised in Wisconsin and now lives there again as a retiree. The family lived in Maryland while I was growing up, hence the O's Fandom

He said the Brewers are starved for offense but they won the division with pitching and defense. Sounds like Burnes will be traded and I think we could use Burnes, and since he has one year left on his arbitration, he's sort of the next in line of progression for 1 year deals considering cost and talent (Lyles, Gibson, Burnes).

I've also heard rumors about the Brewers wanting to trade Yelich, I wouldn't mind taking on that contract if it gives us bargaining power in the trade. He's not a bad fit as he's essentially Nick Markakis right now. I'll take that floor as he's still productive and offers some leadership

O's Get: Corbin Burnes, Christian Yelich, Devin Williams, Cooper Pratt, Jacob Misiorowski, Ethan Small

Brewers Get: Santander, Hayes, Mountcastle, Urias, Norby, Stowers, Max Wagner, Hudson Haskin

I think the O's can absorb the contract of Yelich and he's still a good player, just a 3+ WAR player instead of a 7+ WAR. Might be on the upswing after down years in 21 and 22 (Still OPS+ over 100). It is 5 years left on the contract, so we might have to swallow years 4 and 5; they might not be so hot. Might need to slide into the DH role as well

They could consider signing Burnes long term, but Angelos seems to heavily believe that investing mass sums of money in pitching is not fiscally responsible. Probably only 1 year, but it could be a great year with Burnes, Bradish, Means, GrayRod, etc)

Williams probably needs some prying, but they may want to sell high on a RP since he only has 2 years left. He'd be a great replacement for Bautista, and in year two, both will be in the back end.

Santander, Hayes, and Mountcastle are all huge upgrades offensively in the OF/1B/DH spots for the Brewers compared to this past season. Hayes and Mountcastle probably project better offensively away from Camden Yards too. Urias is actually an offensive upgrade too, but it also puts him in the same organization as his brother.

I think taking on the Yelich money allows Elias some ability to negotiate with the prospect return. We get a couple pitchers and a Gunnar Henderson comp and they get some offensive prospects that are blocked

 

The Orioles can certainly afford existing contracts but I doubt they take on anything more than two years (not just Yelich) given Elias's history and the uncertainty over ownership (eventual sale).  I think there is a much better chance he follows the Cubs/Astros model (he and Hyde are part of that tree) and trades for a veteran(s) on a short term contract.