Melewski suggests Sonny Gray

[Frobby]

25 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

It was a joke.  My point is you can’t take these guys are their word no matter what they say.  It’s all lip service.  And who can blame them, they have a mic shoved in their faces on a daily basis.  Actions speak louder than words.  

I agree.   I don’t want to hear how the team made “competitive” offers for high priced pitchers.   Either they get them or they don’t.  And I’m not saying they necessarily should.  Just that I don’t want to hear any “we tried” nonsense.  

[Roll Tide]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

I agree.   I don’t want to hear how the team made “competitive” offers for high priced pitchers.   Either they get them or they don’t.  And I’m not saying they necessarily should.  Just that I don’t want to hear any “we tried” nonsense.  

I’d bet most/all here agree with you. I think a lot of what Elias has said he’s followed through on. I’m not sure how he’s going to pull it off but I expect that he will sign/trade someone who is an upgrade over Gibson.

[Frobby]

8 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

I’d bet most/all here agree with you. I think a lot of what Elias has said he’s followed through on. I’m not sure how he’s going to pull it off but I expect that he will sign/trade someone who is an upgrade over Gibson.

I agree he’ll get an upgrade over Gibson.  How much of an upgrade remains to be seen.  

[Number5]

8 hours ago, e16bball said:

I don’t know the intricacies of the Orioles’ model, but I would find it hard to believe there’s any model out there that would consider it wise to pay a 5’10 SP big money for his age 34-36 seasons. 

Even if we’re only talking 9ish WAR to earn a $70M contract, it seems like a bad idea. In the last 50+ years, there have been precisely zero pitchers 5’10 or shorter that have been worth more than 7 rWAR between ages 34-36.

Fred Norman is the leader in that group among guys who were primarily SPs, with 6.7 rWAR between 1977-79. The next closest behind him? Paolo Espino, with 1.1 rWAR between 2021-23, and Dennis Springer, with 0.1 rWAR between 1999-2001. 

Gray seems like a great competitor. He’ll have to be something special, because Whitey Ford is the only old/short SP since the Orioles moved to Baltimore that would have earned the deal Gray is going to get.

 

[Chavez Ravine]

On 11/5/2023 at 6:53 AM, OriolesMagic83 said:

Kershaw has been retiring for the last 5 years.  I'll believe it when I see it.

All pitchers break, except the small subset that don’t. Then there is the smaller subset that get their second or third wind in their late 30’s. I wrote off Verlander two or three times.

[e16bball]

17 hours ago, dystopia said:

The market is what it is. Players just get absurd amounts of money these days, especially pitchers. 

Sure, but I think the primary point I was making was much more specific to Gray — old/short SPs hit the wall brutally, and right around his age, with almost no exceptions.

Knowing that, unless there’s something specific about Sonny Gray that makes him different from basically every other SP shorter than 6 feet, it’s hard to imagine the Mike and Sig model determining it’s optimal to be the team to pay him absurd amounts of money for his mid-30s. Especially when there’s also draft pick attached to him.

[Roll Tide]

5 hours ago, e16bball said:

Sure, but I think the primary point I was making was much more specific to Gray — old/short SPs hit the wall brutally, and right around his age, with almost no exceptions.

Knowing that, unless there’s something specific about Sonny Gray that makes him different from basically every other SP shorter than 6 feet, it’s hard to imagine the Mike and Sig model determining it’s optimal to be the team to pay him absurd amounts of money for his mid-30s. Especially when there’s also draft pick attached to him.

Pedro Martinez, Fernando Valenzuela , and Johnny Cueto are all under 6 feet. Martinez had a 3.63 ERA in his age 37 season. Cueto had 3.35 ERA in his age 36 season. Valenzuela had a 3.62 ERA is 170 innings in his age 35 season. Ron Guidry had ERAs in the 3’s in his age 34-36 seasons. Billy Wagner was a closer with ERAs under 3  while saving 100 games in his age 34-36 seasons. To keep the argument reasonable I didn’t use sone of the older players that included Whitey Ford who pitched 750+ innings and ERAs of 2.74, 2.13, and 3.24 in his age 34-36 seasons. He also pitched 73 innings at a 2.47 ERA at age 37. 
 

So while it’s a valid concern that mid 30s guys start to run out of gas. I think the rest of your argument has holes, No? 
 

You’d have Gray’s 34-36 seasons and based on my info you could expect him to be solid for those seasons. If you could get him to agree with a 2+ a vesting contract for the 3rd season at a higher salary for the vesting year to protect yourself it’s fine if he will agree to it. But, I think the 3 years is worth the stretch considering our payroll. If Angelos was smart he could allocate money from the coffers that he saved the last 2 or 3 years. Or go heavy in years 1 & 2 to offset a collapse in the final year. if he were to agree just as an example to a 3 year 70 million. Then give him 27.5, 27.5, and 15. That way he’s not using up much payroll in the year where he’s most likely to decline.

Edited November 27, 2023 by Roll Tide

[Frobby]

I’ve never heard that the age curve varies depending on how tall you are.  Is there research to that effect?

[Brian88]

 

[Sports Guy]

I’m not mad about it but, in all likelihood, there goes the chance this team had in signing a potential FA difference maker.

So, it’s either more of the same bs that doesn’t move the needle or trades.

[Yardball85]

14 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I’m not mad about it but, in all likelihood, there goes the chance this team had in signing a potential FA difference maker.

So, it’s either more of the same bs that doesn’t move the needle or trades.

Agreed, it's frustrating because Gray was a realistic target who, while not a huge difference maker, was a marked improvement over Gray.  But can't wait to hear how we now have a full year of Means, and that is a free agent signing!

 

[Sports Guy]

I will say that I think Stroman is possible still…but that depends on his salary.

[RZNJ]

Curious to see Grays deal.  Some guesses were 3/69.  Some 4/90.    I’m assuming that competition pushed that number to the latter.

[7Mo]

Jon Heyman says 3/75.

[Sports Guy]

Not far off from the projections. 

I wouldn’t have beaten that deal knowing what is available in trade, the presence of Stroman and the loss of the high pick. (That part of more relevant to the idea of Stroman)