FA Starters that fit Elias' pattern

[OriolesMagic83]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Not how this stuff works

I'm sure this kind of stuff is possible.  I work in healthcare, where managers get bonuses for "meeting staffing goals" aka being understaffed while being supportive of staff that are working understaffed.  Elias just seems like a no nonsense guy that wouldn't be ok with something like that. 

[E-D-D-I-E]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

Of course we don't have proof.  What we do have is ownership publicly crying poor on a pretty regular basis.

If you look at the numbers we do have, it's pretty clear that prices won't have to be raised significantly in order to extend the young talent.  Not unless ownership is unwilling to reduce their profits.

Well they will be saving money on Henderson, because there will be no extension. It is well know that Bora$$ "prefers" his client to wait until free agency. We would have to blow the windows out of the warehouse to get that deal done.

[wildcard]

15 minutes ago, Matt Bennett said:

Johnson, McDermott, and Povich are fine prospects (our #10, #11, and #15 on MLB.com). Not elite prospects. We are hopeful that can turn into productive pieces. They in no way should be relied upon for 2024 or 2025 rotation innings and shape our 2024 off-season strategy. If their promotion cannot be denied and you have to make room, that's a good problem to have for a future time. What are the odds of that? Yes, Bradish, Grayson, and Kremer developed well. How many didn't develop? 

Waves of Orioles SP Prospects throughout Elias' tenure:

2019 Debut:

1. Dillon Tate: 1st round pick, former top 100 prospect --> Never made a start. Converted into decent reliever. Provided a couple WAR and is now a non-tender candidate.

2. Hunter Harvey: 1st round pick, former top 100 prospect --> Never made a start. Injuries and availability concerns led to a DFA after 0.5 WAR. 

2020 Debut:

1. Dean Kremer: mentioned previously. Turned into a useful middle/back end rotation piece. 

2. Keegan Akin: 2nd round pick  --> Poor starter. Temporary success as reliever. Non-tender candidate. 

3. Bruce Zimmermann: no success at big league level. Likely DFA. 

2021 Debut:

1. Zac Lowther: 2nd round pick --> no success at big league level and out of baseball

2. Tyler Wells --> durability and home-run concerns as starter. ERA and WHIP have looked nice but all peripherals and analytics suggest that was not to continue. Proven to be a nice piece in the bullpen. 

3. Mike Baumann: Shuttle bullpen guy at the big league level so far. Perhaps there's some improvement to be had but he's already 28. 

2022 Debut:

1. Kyle Bradish: STUD

2. DL Hall: 1st round pick, former top 100 prospect --> struggles starting at AAA. Looks like he can be a useful bullpen piece. 

3. Cody Sedlock: 2016 1st round pick --> one cup of coffee in majors

2023 Debut: 

1. Grayson Rodriguez: 1st round pick, former top 10 prospect --> down and up rookie campaign. We'll see if he takes the next step into an average and above average MLB starter. 

 

Yes, not every prospect makes it.   Johnson is a 1st rounder and may have the best chance.  

I expect Elias to trade Norby, Stowers and Urias for pitching prospects this off season.   Keep fulling the tank.

[Sports Guy]

6 minutes ago, wildcard said:

When Adley, Gunnar, GRod and Bradish reach their 3rd arbitration years payroll will rise.

Obviously. Not sure why you even said this, especially since I talked in that post how the payroll increases will be partially due to just that.

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, E-D-D-I-E said:

Well they will be saving money on Henderson, because there will be no extension. It is well know that Bora$$ "prefers" his client to wait until free agency. We would have to blow the windows out of the warehouse to get that deal done.

No we wouldn’t.

[OriolesMagic83]

8 minutes ago, E-D-D-I-E said:

That is possible. IMO it totally depends on winning. If the O's are winning, why abandon ship?

If the O's young All Star level players are becoming expensive and there are no replacements on the farm, and the alternative is either sign some free agents to fill holes or become a .500 team and JA refuses to sign any decent free agents, can you blame Elias for jumping ship?

[wildcard]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Obviously. Not sure why you even said this, especially since I talked in that post how the payroll increases will be partially due to just that.

You don't like to be agreed with?

[OriolesMagic83]

4 minutes ago, E-D-D-I-E said:

Well they will be saving money on Henderson, because there will be no extension. It is well know that Bora$$ "prefers" his client to wait until free agency. We would have to blow the windows out of the warehouse to get that deal done.

Yeah, let's just assume that Gunnar is greedy and wants every last dollar instead of actually attempting to sign him long term.  This owner is good at nothing but making up excuses.

[wildcard]

2 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

If the O's young All Star level players are becoming expensive and there are no replacements on the farm, and the alternative is either sign some free agents to fill holes or become a .500 team and JA refuses to sign any decent free agents, can you blame Elias for jumping ship?

It's Elias job to keep the prospects coming.  And he is good at it.

[E-D-D-I-E]

11 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

If the O's young All Star level players are becoming expensive and there are no replacements on the farm, and the alternative is either sign some free agents to fill holes or become a .500 team and JA refuses to sign any decent free agents, can you blame Elias for jumping ship?

Lots of IF's your predicting. However, IF he is smart and begins trading core members one at a time for prospects to "refill" the liquor cabinet, he won't get to your point above. Not like what Duquette did with Machado/Schoop and others. Held them until the last minute and got back 2nd rate prospects. Hence the rebuild.

Edited November 8, 2023 by E-D-D-I-E

[Can_of_corn]

7 minutes ago, wildcard said:

You don't like to be agreed with?

He doesn't like change.

[E-D-D-I-E]

12 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

No we wouldn’t.

Julio Rodriguez signed a 12 year / $209,300,000

Yordan Alvarez finalized a six-year, $115 million contract covering 2023-28

Last 2 ROY's to sign an extension. NEITHER is represented by Boras and they are $18 million dollar extensions, at long years. 

IMO, that is "Breaking the Bank" in this organization. 

I would LOVE to see it happen. In fact, my wife could just print out the article that he extended and give it to me for xmas as one of my gifts. (Yes I said 1 of becasue I was a good boy this year)

 

Edited November 8, 2023 by E-D-D-I-E

[Can_of_corn]

13 minutes ago, E-D-D-I-E said:

Well they will be saving money on Henderson, because there will be no extension. It is well know that Bora$$ "prefers" his client to wait until free agency. We would have to blow the windows out of the warehouse to get that deal done.

Sure Boras prefers it.  So what?

Boras is the employee.

Over the years a number of people Boras works for have signed extensions.

Now maybe Gunnar isn't interested at any reasonable price.  That is certainly possible.  But if he is interested, Boras will, in the end, do what his employer wants him to do.

[IPlayGM]

54 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Why would any GM keep payroll lower than what ownership is willing to set?

I mean I understand why you want to leave a buffer so you can add during the season and not trade draft picks when you want to cut someone (Hi Dan!) but beyond that?

If Elias had significant headroom to add salary why didn't he do more at the trade deadline?

You basic premise just kinda breaks my brain.  The boss sets the budget and the manager makes it work.  What manager in any field just voluntary leaves budget money unspent?  Frankly Wildcard's theory makes more sense to me.

What I mean is that I could see a scenario where ownership set a number for payroll and Elias decides it is not the right time to push the budget to the very top due to where the team is development wise, being fiscally conservative and maintaining flexibility. But now that the team is at a point where it is full on go time, he will want to add. So now we will see if it is ownership is a partner in pushing us over the edge.

[E-D-D-I-E]

6 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Sure Boras prefers it.  So what?

Boras is the employee.

Over the years a number of people Boras works for have signed extensions.

Now maybe Gunnar isn't interested at any reasonable price.  That is certainly possible.  But if he is interested, Boras will, in the end, do what his employer wants him to do.

Really? I wholeheartedly disagree. You don't hire Bora$ if you, as a player, want to "get involved" in the business side of things. 99% of the extensions from Bora$ clients are from established players, not rookie extensions. I am not saying Gunnar couldn't make this request to Bora$ to get it done, but I am telling you with certainty, that Bora$ will attempt to talk him out of it and in these discussions with players, his odd's of winning are pretty damn good.