FA Starters that fit Elias' pattern

[RZNJ]

8 minutes ago, wildcard said:

My guess is Elias gets a substantial bonus for keep payroll low.   It probably makes him one of he highest paid GM in the MLB.   It was all part of the plan from when he was hired IMO.

Why would the owner give him a bonus for something the owner can set?

[Sports Guy]

14 minutes ago, wildcard said:

My guess is Elias gets a substantial bonus for keep payroll low.   It probably makes him one of he highest paid GM in the MLB.   It was all part of the plan from when he was hired IMO.

Not how this stuff works

[wildcard]

8 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Why would the owner give him a bonus for something the owner can set?

Maybe JA is not as stupid as many think he is.   Elias is the Golden Goose.   He is the one that has taken this team from the bottom to near the top.   He is the one responsible for the winning.   And the winning brings back the crowds.  

Maybe JA would like to keep Elias.

[HakunaSakata]

20 minutes ago, wildcard said:

My guess is Elias gets a substantial bonus for keep payroll low.   It probably makes him one of he highest paid GM in the MLB.   It was all part of the plan from when he was hired IMO.

I'm willing to overlook A LOT of stuff on this message board because the reality is that most of us are just speculating/guessing, but this is some real next level conspiracy driven craziness. Just an absolutely ridiculous claim that is  grounded in as much reality as flying unicorns and giant albino alligators living in our sewers. 

[RZNJ]

3 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Maybe JA is not as stupid as many think he is.   Elias is the Golden Goose.   He is the one that has taken this team from the bottom to near the top.   He is the one responsible for the winning.   And the winning brings back the crowds.  

Maybe JA would like to keep Elias.

I’m sure he would.

[wildcard]

18 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

I'm willing to overlook A LOT of stuff on this message board because the reality is that most of us are just speculating/guessing, but this is some real next level conspiracy driven craziness. Just an absolutely ridiculous claim that is  grounded in as much reality as flying unicorns and giant albino alligators living in our sewers. 

The smartest move JA has made since to took over is hiring Elias.   And the smartest move he makes going forward is to keeping him.   That means paying him.

Edited November 8, 2023 by wildcard

[IPlayGM]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

Of course we don't have proof.  What we do have is ownership publicly crying poor on a pretty regular basis.

If you look at the numbers we do have, it's pretty clear that prices won't have to be raised significantly in order to extend the young talent.  Not unless ownership is unwilling to reduce their profits.

Sure. I agree regarding the prices, that just seems like posturing for various political and social reasons. I am still holding true that this is more Elias than ownership, but time will tell, at least I think it will.

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, IPlayGM said:

Sure. I agree regarding the prices, that just seems like posturing for various political and social reasons. I am still holding true that this is more Elias than ownership, but time will tell, at least I think it will.

Why would any GM keep payroll lower than what ownership is willing to set?

I mean I understand why you want to leave a buffer so you can add during the season and not trade draft picks when you want to cut someone (Hi Dan!) but beyond that?

If Elias had significant headroom to add salary why didn't he do more at the trade deadline?

You basic premise just kinda breaks my brain.  The boss sets the budget and the manager makes it work.  What manager in any field just voluntary leaves budget money unspent?  Frankly Wildcard's theory makes more sense to me.

[sportsfan8703]

28 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

I'm willing to overlook A LOT of stuff on this message board because the reality is that most of us are just speculating/guessing, but this is some real next level conspiracy driven craziness. Just an absolutely ridiculous claim that is  grounded in as much reality as flying unicorns and giant albino alligators living in our sewers. 

But the reality is that the most fans online won’t be happy unless we trot out a 90% homegrown team, spend on a Verlander type Ace, and perennial go deep into the playoffs and win multiple WS. 

[Sports Guy]

26 minutes ago, wildcard said:

The smartest move JA has made since to took over is hiring Elias.   And the smartest move he makes going forward is to keeping him.   That means paying him.

Sure…but not in the way you suggested.

[Sports Guy]

12 minutes ago, IPlayGM said:

Sure. I agree regarding the prices, that just seems like posturing for various political and social reasons. I am still holding true that this is more Elias than ownership, but time will tell, at least I think it will.

I think people get some things mixed up/confused here.

There is zero doubt that Elias wants to build from within and believes that’s the best way to build your franchise. And, of course, he’s right.

There is zero doubt, at least imo, that Elias does not believe in big 9 figure contracts and wouldn’t sign one even if his owner allowed it.  
 

I think in those regards, he is a perfect  match for Angelos. He doesn’t want to spend all crazy and he wants to build from within and put money into the foundation of the org and that is peanuts compared to other money being spent, especially on the FA market.

HOWEVER, I also have no doubt that if he was allowed to, he would like to spend 3/70 on a FA pitcher contract. I have no doubt that he would like to extend certain young players to large contracts.   I also have no doubt that he would like the freedom to trade for a bigger contract if there is one out there he feels fits well with everything they are doing.

I have no doubt that he would like to work within the frame work of a 100-150M payroll…with the numbers fluctuating based off of arb salaries and things like that.

This is how Houston operates. I have little doubt that Elias and his team would like to operate in a similar  fashion.

So yes, some of it is absolutely Elias because he doesn’t see the FA market as something you go crazy in and he doesnt believe in paying guys salaries that they aren’t worth. Because of that, he will keep the payroll lower and have a higher surplus value/wins per dollar spent type thing than most teams will.

But the second part to that is everything else I mentioned. That’s the stuff we don’t know if Angelos will give him. Will he go into the $100+M range?  Will he allow him to sign a player for whatever it takes AAV wise assuming it’s a shorter term deal? Will he be able to go make that Verlander trade?

You better believe he wants all of those things despite his more frugal thought process.

[Matt Bennett]

On 11/7/2023 at 8:28 AM, wildcard said:

This time a year a lot of O's fans say that.   It does not happen.

Elias/Holt has developed GRod, Bradish and Kremer.   They will develop Johnson, McDermott and Povich.   They just need a stop gap starter for a year.   It will be counter culture for them to pay big money for a starter this off season.

Johnson, McDermott, and Povich are fine prospects (our #10, #11, and #15 on MLB.com). Not elite prospects. We are hopeful that can turn into productive pieces. They in no way should be relied upon for 2024 or 2025 rotation innings and shape our 2024 off-season strategy. If their promotion cannot be denied and you have to make room, that's a good problem to have for a future time. What are the odds of that? Yes, Bradish, Grayson, and Kremer developed well. How many didn't develop? 

Waves of Orioles SP Prospects throughout Elias' tenure:

2019 Debut:

1. Dillon Tate: 1st round pick, former top 100 prospect --> Never made a start. Converted into decent reliever. Provided a couple WAR and is now a non-tender candidate.

2. Hunter Harvey: 1st round pick, former top 100 prospect --> Never made a start. Injuries and availability concerns led to a DFA after 0.5 WAR. 

2020 Debut:

1. Dean Kremer: mentioned previously. Turned into a useful middle/back end rotation piece. 

2. Keegan Akin: 2nd round pick  --> Poor starter. Temporary success as reliever. Non-tender candidate. 

3. Bruce Zimmermann: no success at big league level. Likely DFA. 

2021 Debut:

1. Zac Lowther: 2nd round pick --> no success at big league level and out of baseball

2. Tyler Wells --> durability and home-run concerns as starter. ERA and WHIP have looked nice but all peripherals and analytics suggest that was not to continue. Proven to be a nice piece in the bullpen. 

3. Mike Baumann: Shuttle bullpen guy at the big league level so far. Perhaps there's some improvement to be had but he's already 28. 

2022 Debut:

1. Kyle Bradish: STUD

2. DL Hall: 1st round pick, former top 100 prospect --> struggles starting at AAA. Looks like he can be a useful bullpen piece. 

3. Cody Sedlock: 2016 1st round pick --> one cup of coffee in majors

2023 Debut: 

1. Grayson Rodriguez: 1st round pick, former top 10 prospect --> down and up rookie campaign. We'll see if he takes the next step into an average and above average MLB starter. 

 

[E-D-D-I-E]

18 hours ago, jamalshw said:

I'm not sure where I said that at all. I said I'd rather just use the in house group (which is also inclusive of Hall and Wells--as the alternative would be adding more bullpen and pushing them to the rotation) than the names brought up by the OP. My post wasn't quoting any others so it was in response to the OP and in relation to Nick Martinez, Seth Lugo and the like. I do think Cease and Giolito fall in a class above that. I would prefer Gray or E-Rod over either (unless Cease comes WAY cheaper than I expect). I also said I could be talked into Wacha who I didn't want as Plan A, B, or C. I think the Cease/Giolito class would fall into the Plan B/C territory. 

I am with you that the pen will need BIG additions if Hall and/or Wells earn a rotation spot. Not an Elias reclamation project, but a few named, successful, high-leverage relievers. Maybe they will go that way. I don't trust Means so I am skeptical of that plan.

[E-D-D-I-E]

13 hours ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

I hope Elias doesn't tire of ownership restrictions before the O's get new ownership.  At some point it's going to cross his mind that "how much more could I do with an extra $100 million or even $50 million per year".

That is possible. IMO it totally depends on winning. If the O's are winning, why abandon ship?

[wildcard]

12 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I think people get some things mixed up/confused here.

There is zero doubt that Elias wants to build from within and believes that’s the best way to build your franchise. And, of course, he’s right.

There is zero doubt, at least imo, that Elias does not believe in big 9 figure contracts and wouldn’t sign one even if his owner allowed it.  
 

I think in those regards, he is a perfect  match for Angelos. He doesn’t want to spend all crazy and he wants to build from within and put money into the foundation of the org and that is peanuts compared to other money being spent, especially on the FA market.

HOWEVER, I also have no doubt that if he was allowed to, he would like to spend 3/70 on a FA pitcher contract. I have no doubt that he would like to extend certain young players to large contracts.   I also have no doubt that he would like the freedom to trade for a bigger contract if there is one out there he feels fits well with everything they are doing.

I have no doubt that he would like to work within the frame work of a 100-150M payroll…with the numbers fluctuating based off of arb salaries and things like that.

This is how Houston operates. I have little doubt that Elias and his team would like to operate in a similar  fashion.

So yes, some raof it is absolutely Elias because he doesn’t see the FA market as something you go crazy in and he doesnt believe in paying guys salaries that they aren’t worth. Because of that, he will keep the payroll lower and have a higher surplus value/wins per dollar spent type thing than most teams will.

But the second part to that is everything else I mentioned. That’s the stuff we don’t know if Angelos will give him. Will he go into the $100+M range?  Will he allow him to sign a player for whatever it takes AAV wise assuming it’s a shorter term deal? Will he be able to go make that Verlander trade?

You better believe he wants all of those things despite his more frugal thought process.

When Adley, Gunnar, GRod and Bradish reach their 3rd arbitration years payroll will rise.