2023 #7 Prospect Enrique Bradfield Jr. - CF

[Tony-OH]

 

https://orioleshangout.com/2023/11/14/2023-orioles-7-prospect-enrique-bradfield-jr-cf/

The Orioles first pick in the 2024 draft, Enrique Bradfield Jr. brings elite center field defense and speed and an above average understanding of the strike zone and comes in as the #7 prospect.

Enrique Bradfield Jr.
Pos: CF
Bats: L
Throws: L
Age (as of Jun 30th) : 21
2023 Level: CPX/A/A+

Tools (current/future value)
Hit: 35/50
Game Power: 20/30
Raw Power: 25/35
Run: 80/80
Defense: 65/75

Most Likely Future Role: Starting CF
Ceiling: 1st Division Starting CF

What we know: When the Orioles drafted Bradfield with the 17th overall pick, they envisioned him one day patrolling Camden Yards center field while causing havoc on the base paths.

In his short professional debut of 25 games across three levels, Bradford was an on base machine and stole 25 bases while getting caught just twice. In 110 PAs, he walked 26 times to 16 strikeouts putting up a .473 OBP to go along with his almost unheard of 2% swinging strike percentage. He rarely swings at pitches out of the zone and forces pitchers to throw strikes.

The concern though is that he doesn't really drive the ball that much and he was an extreme groundball hitter putting up a 66.7% GB% with just three extra base hits. A lot of hits were infield hits that he just used his 80 speed to beat out. As he moves up the chain, he'll need to learn to drive the ball more because pitchers will be able to throw more quality strikes and will not be afraid to pound the zone if he can't hurt them once in awhile.

His speed though is clear 80 as he's already one of the fastest players in professional baseball. He once scored on a bunt hit from second base and ran so hard through the plate that they had to catch up before he fell into the dugout. He frequently beats out routine groundballs and was almost a sure thing when he stole bases. He's absolute disrupter on the base paths at all times and constantly puts pressure on the pitcher, catcher and infielders.

Defensively his 80-grade speed makes up for his occasional questionable route or jump in center field. The arm though is well below average though he tends to get rid of the ball quickly to help make up for a lack of arm strength. the hope is as he gets stronger his arm will get stronger as well.

What we don't know: Can he make some adjustments in his swing that will allow him to drive the ball more and become more of a threat with the bat? The Orioles believe they can get more out of the stick and if they can, they could have themselves and impact lead off hitter.

What we think: Everything about Bradfield is contingent on how his bat develops. If he can find ways to get on base at the major league level, he'll be an absolute disrupter every time he gets on. At worse, his speed and defense and strike zone control should allow he to have a pretty high floor as a 4th outfielder, but he's got a much higher ceiling than that.

[IPlayGM]

26 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

 

https://orioleshangout.com/2023/11/14/2023-orioles-7-prospect-enrique-bradfield-jr-cf/

Thanks for doing these Tony, really helps put some perspective on our system. To me, Bradfield meeting his potential is an opportunity for us to truly maximize our lineup potential. That guy getting on base in front of Adley/Gunnar/Heston/Mayo just seems potentially great to me.

Question about your terminology: 1st division starter means starter on a playoff team, starter on a top half of league team? 

[baltfan]

This will be a big test of the Orioles system.  If they can develop some power for him, he could be phenomenal.  My concern is that he was already at a great program that has turned out numerous hitters people thought could be fixed and weren’t.  I am looking at you Austin Martin and JJ Bleday. 

[Tony-OH]

21 minutes ago, IPlayGM said:

Question about your terminology: 1st division starter means starter on a playoff team, starter on a top half of league team? 

When I speak to scouts they like to talk about upper division and lower division players. Basically, I think of upper Division teams as contenders. 

The thinking is there is a difference between a starter on the Orioles vs the A's.

Take a player like Terrin Vavra. He's no longer a rookie so he doesn't qualify in the list, but I'd probably say he's got a ceiling as a lower Division starter. Most likely he's a 26th man on a major league roster, but if given 500 PAs he might be a 1.5 WAR player.

[Tony-OH]

11 minutes ago, baltfan said:

This will be a big test of the Orioles system.  If they can develop some power for him, he could be phenomenal.  My concern is that he was already at a great program that has turned out numerous hitters people thought could be fixed and weren’t.  I am looking at you Austin Martin and JJ Bleday. 

Certainly valid concerns and I can't lie, he hits a TON of groundballs and that needs to change no matter how fast he is. I'm hopeful the Orioles can develop the bat because the speed and defense are game changing.

The good news is his strike zone judgement is outstanding and that's a good place to start.

[AlbNYfan]

10 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Certainly valid concerns and I can't lie, he hits a TON of groundballs and that needs to change no matter how fast he is. I'm hopeful the Orioles can develop the bat because the speed and defense are game changing.

The good news is his strike zone judgement is outstanding and that's a good place to start.

If a player "can't" hit, strike zone judgement isn't quite as important IMO. Pitchers will throw strikes to players who are not likely to hurt them. His OBP is likely to suffer greatly against MLB pitching.

[btdart20]

2024 is a big year for EBJ.  I don't anticipate him in Baltimore by any means, but we'll get a much better idea of whether he's a #1 or #9 hitter.  We've got a ton of OBP/OPS machines queued up, so he's got a pretty high bat to compete against.  I'm really interested in the hitting instructions/offseason regimen he's being coached toward.  

Game changing speed at the top is such a fun catalyst!  I'm here for the Kenny Lofton Happy Path!

[Tony-OH]

4 minutes ago, AlbNYfan said:

If a player "can't" hit, strike zone judgement isn't quite as important IMO. Pitchers will throw strikes to players who are not likely to hurt them. His OBP is likely to suffer greatly against MLB pitching.

If a player cannot "hurt" a pitcher because he has no power, pitchers will certainly attack him at the upper levels. But starting with the ability to judge the strike zone will help him not chase and take away one additional concern.

But I agree, if Bradfield doesn't start driving the ball more he will struggle at the upper levels.

[Sports Guy]

If by the end of the year, Bradfield doesn’t look like a viable replacement for Mullins in 2025, I will be disappointed.

[LookinUp]

I'm cool with the O's taking an elite athlete who essentially has one hole in his game and trying to fix it. There's no chance the old Orioles would succeed. I think there's a fair chance they can improve the bat skills enough to allow him to be a starter. What I don't get is the folks who compared him to Kenny Lofton when he was drafted. If the O's can improve the bat that much, watch out.

This is an incredibly different profile than most of the guys on our list. I think you could argue him in a lot of spots, but #7 makes sense given his upside. His development will be fascinating. I expect it to be non-linear.

[Frobby]

I think Bradfield will be extremely fun to follow.  I’d probably have him outside the top 10 right now due to his lack of power, but if he can develop even a little pop his ceiling could go sky high.  

Tony cites Bradfield’s 66.7% GB rate, but I don’t mind a high GB rate too much on a guy who’s super fast and can beat out a lot of grounders.  I remember when David Lough was on the O’s he frustrated me so much because he had great speed but seemingly hit nothing but medium depth lazy fly balls.   I’d rather have a lot of grounders than that.  

For now, I’m dreaming on a Brett Butler-type career.  

 

[SpOkane]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I think Bradfield will be extremely fun to follow.  I’d probably have him outside the top 10 right now due to his lack of power, but if he can develop even a little pop his ceiling could go sky high.  

Tony cites Bradfield’s 66.7% GB rate, but I don’t mind a high GB rate too much on a guy who’s super fast and can beat out a lot of grounders.  I remember when David Lough was on the O’s he frustrated me so much because he had great speed but seemingly hit nothing but medium depth lazy fly balls.   I’d rather have a lot of grounders than that.  

For now, I’m dreaming on a Brett Butler-type career.  

 

Hopefully a rich man's Brett Butler as his SB% was mediocre more often than not. Which I had never realized. A .377 OBP would look nice though.

[Moose Milligan]

6 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I think Bradfield will be extremely fun to follow.  I’d probably have him outside the top 10 right now due to his lack of power, but if he can develop even a little pop his ceiling could go sky high.  

Tony cites Bradfield’s 66.7% GB rate, but I don’t mind a high GB rate too much on a guy who’s super fast and can beat out a lot of grounders.  I remember when David Lough was on the O’s he frustrated me so much because he had great speed but seemingly hit nothing but medium depth lazy fly balls.   I’d rather have a lot of grounders than that.  

For now, I’m dreaming on a Brett Butler-type career.  

 

For now, I'm dreaming on a Kenny Lofton type career.

[Tony-OH]

13 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I think Bradfield will be extremely fun to follow.  I’d probably have him outside the top 10 right now due to his lack of power, but if he can develop even a little pop his ceiling could go sky high.  

Tony cites Bradfield’s 66.7% GB rate, but I don’t mind a high GB rate too much on a guy who’s super fast and can beat out a lot of grounders.  I remember when David Lough was on the O’s he frustrated me so much because he had great speed but seemingly hit nothing but medium depth lazy fly balls.   I’d rather have a lot of grounders than that.  

For now, I’m dreaming on a Brett Butler-type career.  

 

I think modern analytics have poo-poo'd the theory that hitting the ball on the ground is good for any hitter, even fast ones. Better athletes and better positioning has kind of eliminated that slap hitting approach.

Now, do I want him to be a flyball hitter with his current power, no way, but more solid line drive rates and hard hit balls in that sweet spot angle is the key. 

He does have special speed which could make him an outlier and why I like him on this part of the list. He also has a pretty high floor due to his speed and defense alone. Having a well above average strike zone judgement will also help get him on base, even if it's at a lower clip then his ridiculous OBP at the lower levels.

He could be in the top 5 next year or out of the top ten. Next year will be very interesting to watch him.

[Frobby]

8 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

For now, I'm dreaming on a Kenny Lofton type career.

I’m thinking that’s too lofty.  (See what I did there?)

Lofton had a career .124, and had double digit homers 7 times.   Butler had an .086 ISO, and was never in double digits for homers.  He did have double digits in triples 5 times though.  I’d be thrilled with either outcome (68.4 rWAR for Lofton, 49.8 for Butler) but I’m pessimistic that Bradfield will have as much pop as Lofton.