Bowden: Burnes potential suitors including Os

[Ripken]

31 minutes ago, ChosenOne21 said:

What would you say the chances are that Povich is an above average SP in the majors? I give it about 10-15%. Again, I'd rather roll the dice on that than clone Bryan Baker, but I can easily imagine someone knowing more about Povich thinking he's overvalued and trading him for a solid reliever that he likes.

If Bryan Baker doesn't make the Orioles this year, I think that says more about the other relievers we have than him. Bryan Baker would be in the bullpens of two-thirds of the teams in MLB at least.

I think I'm done replying to this until someone demonstrates, with numbers, that Bryan Baker is not an above average relief pitcher. I've posted numbers suggesting he is.

I don't know what percentage anyone gives Povich of succeeding but he's worth far more than a fungible reliever like Bryan Baker.  I do agree there's no reason to keep responding.

[Safelykept]

12 minutes ago, ChosenOne21 said:

So are Grod and Kremer not above average?

You're comparing Baker to Grod and Kremer??? come on man, this is not college debate team 101 where they tell anything can be debated,as per my previous post you really need to go back and watch the partial inning that he pitched in game 2

[dystopia]

10 minutes ago, Safelykept said:

You're comparing Baker to Grod and Kremer??? come on man, this is not college debate team 101 where they tell anything can be debated,as per my previous post you really need to go back and watch the partial inning that he pitched in game 2

Don't even need to do that. Just look at his walk rate last year. His ERA was kept respectable by other pitchers coming in and bailing him out of his messes.

[ChosenOne21]

23 minutes ago, Safelykept said:

You're comparing Baker to Grod and Kremer??? come on man, this is not college debate team 101 where they tell anything can be debated,as per my previous post you really need to go back and watch the partial inning that he pitched in game 2

Do you know what average means?

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, ChosenOne21 said:

Average reliever ERA: 4.17
Baker: 3.60

Average reliever K/9: 9.1
Baker: 10.2

Average reliever HR/9: 1.09
Baker: 0.80

Average reliever WHIP: 1.324
Baker: 1.267

I will admit Baker gives up an above average amount of walks, but the overall package is clearly above average for a relief pitcher. As to whether or not he's an above average middle reliever, I guess that depends on how you define that. A quick glance shows his ERA to be average for all pitchers who pitched in the sixth or seventh inning.

I can't imagine there are many if any bullpens where he wouldn't have a role.

The stat you omitted, which sticks out like a sore thumb, is he allowed 19 of 35 inherited runners to score (54%).  That was worst on the team and beyond putrid.  Of 116 pitchers who inherited more than 20 runners, he was 3rd worst in the majors.  League average was 32%.   

Edited December 9, 2023 by Frobby

[deward]

1 hour ago, Ripken said:

But he's clearly not worth a good AAA left-handed starting pitcher prospect.  Teams highly value those guys.  Bryan Baker may not even make the Orioles this year.  He's nothing special.

I'm not sure Povich qualifies for all of that description. 

[Ripken]

14 minutes ago, deward said:

I'm not sure Povich qualifies for all of that description. 

He's in AAA and he's a left-handed starting pitcher, so you're questioning the word "good" I guess?

Tony has him as the Orioles' #13 prospect, MLB.com has him at #11, and other publications are similar.  He was considered the biggest piece the Orioles received in the Lopez trade to Minnesota, to which Elias said "Cade Povich is somebody that we’re very, very high on internally, and think we’ve got a possible front-of-the-rotation starter."  

[deward]

17 minutes ago, Ripken said:

He's in AAA and he's a left-handed starting pitcher, so you're questioning the word "good" I guess?

Tony has him as the Orioles' #13 prospect, MLB.com has him at #11, and other publications are similar.  He was considered the biggest piece the Orioles received in the Lopez trade to Minnesota, to which Elias said "Cade Povich is somebody that we’re very, very high on internally, and think we’ve got a possible front-of-the-rotation starter."  

I'm aware of all this. I also think he's lost quite a bit of luster since he was acquired. His ERA as an O's prospect is just under 5. His ERA at AA and above is over 5.30. I know the K rate is tantalizing, and that pitchers can change their career trajectory over-night, but the results just have not been there yet. He seems like a lottery ticket to me, but we'll see.

[ChosenOne21]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

The stat you omitted, which sticks out like a sore thumb, is he allowed 19 of 35 inherited runners to score (54%).  That was worst on the team and beyond putrid.  Of 116 pitchers who inherited more than 20 runners, he was 3rd worst in the majors.  League average was 32%.   

Isn't scoring inherited runners significantly luck based? Or am I thinking of strand rate?

Also worth nothing his rate of inherited runners scoring year before last was 31%

Edited December 9, 2023 by ChosenOne21

[Billy F-Face3]

The YouTube guy using the Trade simulator suggested Ryan Mountcastle and DL Hall for Corbin Burnes. That could save Mayo but it also guts our middle of the batting order and takes away from our defensive potential (Mountcastle was a gold glove finalist) at First Base. And we need left handers like Hall and Means. I'd rather trade a right hander but I don't know who would have enough value to the Brewers. I do think Norby and Urias might be somewhat interesting to them.

I guess this is all a fruitless exercise anyway based on what Roch just posted.

[Billy F-Face3]

The Juan Soto deal had a bunch of average or less than average pitchers involved so I don't think trading is as hard as some people make it out to be.

[dystopia]

20 minutes ago, Billy F-Face3 said:

The Juan Soto deal had a bunch of average or less than average pitchers involved so I don't think trading is as hard as some people make it out to be.

King is definitely above average.

[Frobby]

6 hours ago, ChosenOne21 said:

Isn't scoring inherited runners significantly luck based? Or am I thinking of strand rate?

Also worth nothing his rate of inherited runners scoring year before last was 31%

He pitched better in 2022.  

[Roll Tide]

My we’ve gotten off topic here ….anyone other than @Billy F-Face3want to talk about Burnes 

[deward]

6 hours ago, Billy F-Face3 said:

The YouTube guy using the Trade simulator suggested Ryan Mountcastle and DL Hall for Corbin Burnes. That could save Mayo but it also guts our middle of the batting order and takes away from our defensive potential (Mountcastle was a gold glove finalist) at First Base. And we need left handers like Hall and Means. I'd rather trade a right hander but I don't know who would have enough value to the Brewers. I do think Norby and Urias might be somewhat interesting to them.

I guess this is all a fruitless exercise anyway based on what Roch just posted.

That's an interesting trade to consider. I'd be less concerned about losing Mounty as I would be about removing Hall from a Bautista-less bullpen. If Hall turns into Josh Hader-lite, then giving him up for one year of Burnes would hurt. It's worth thinking about though.