Cease vs everyone else

[Say O!]

While Elias searches for upgrades during off-season, more top flight pitchers were moved during the trade deadline.  And from teams where would not have expected at the start of the season.  So when debating Cease vs others, it may more likely that the pitcher to be available comes during July instead of January. 

[Sports Guy]

White Sox half the Braves 40 man roster for Bummer. The dismantling has begun.

 

[RZNJ]

Weird trade.  A lot of dreck for a Bummer.

[Chicago White Sox]

16 hours ago, HakunaSakata said:

It's no just his ERA. There are plenty of other underlying numbers / stats that point to Cease being a average pitcher and not a Cy Young / TOR pitcher. Guarenteed Rate Field played like a middle of the pack (14th overall) hitter's park last season so I really don't don't understand that part of your argument. Or the argument about the White Sox defense either. They ranked 14th overall last season which, for context, was just one spot ahead of the Orioles. So I certainly wouldn't say the odds were stacked against him from a home stadium / defense standpoint. 

The most obvious thing that will always make Cease's success unsustainable are his walks. When you consistently flirt with a BB/9 rate of 4 there's no margin for error in your game. So instead of blaming the defense and ballpark for his lack of success maybe you should point a finger at him for putting all those runners on base in the first place. And he's shown no signs of being able to improve on this throughout his career. 

Also there have been plenty of one hit wonder pitchers over the years. Some have even won Cy Youngs. It really would be foolish to ignore the amount that good luck sometimes factor into the equation. And we can't predict the future, but we can make educated guesses based on statistical data. And all the data points to Cease's 2022 season being an outlier. 

I’m not sure what defensive metric you’re using, but I can assure you the White Sox were a bottom three team defensively.  

And again, Cease’s slider was the best pitch in Statcast history in 2022.  His success wasn’t a fluke driven by batted ball luck but a truly dominant pitch.  I watched him spin this slider throughout 2022 and there was no flukiness to it.

[Just Regular]

I wake up and discover Aaron Bummer is Erik Bedard.      I kind of thought Dylan Cease was a bit like Erik Bedard.

[Frobby]

7 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

White Sox half the Braves 40 man roster for Bummer. The dismantling has begun.

 

Seems like a lot to give up for a middle reliever who just posted a 6.79 ERA.

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Seems like a lot to give up for a middle reliever who just posted a 6.79 ERA.

I haven't looked at the stats.  Anyone well regarded or just a volume deal?

[Sports Guy]

30 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I haven't looked at the stats.  Anyone well regarded or just a volume deal?

Soroka was good but injuries have crushed him and they were probably going to non tender him anyway. Shuster was a top 10 prospect for them but I don’t think he’s that good.  Other guys in the deal are older and not good. This really seemed like a cleaning of the 40 man roster type deal.

The key for Os fans in this deal is Lopez.  He is basically Mateo without the speed but will take a walk. As I said earlier, Mateo as a throw in could work if the WS were looking for that type of a stop gap option and obviously they were. Lopez will make similar money, has a very good glove and can’t hit. 

Edited November 17, 2023 by Sports Guy

[ShoelesJoe]

14 hours ago, Frobby said:

 Who in the Orioles’ lineup really moves the needle for Seattle?  

Seattle's 1B hit .253 / .341 / .378 last year. I think Mountcastle (.452 SLG) or O'Hearn (.480 SLG) moves the needle for them. 

Seattle's 2B hit .205 / .294 / .313 last year. I think Westburg moves the needle for them. 

Seattle just lost RF Teoscar Hernandez to FA. I think Hays moves the needle for them. 

Seattle's DHs hit .207 / .285 / .392 last year. I think Santander moves the needle for them. 

 

They missed the playoffs by one game. 

No, they're not dealing Kirby or Gilbert for an Oriole package consisting only of guys who played 100+ games this year. But I can see them accepting a mixture of current players and prospects, as opposed to Chicago who will want only prospects. And just speaking for myself, I'd rather deal Mountcastle and Santander than Basallo and Mayo. 

[Frobby]

18 minutes ago, ShoelesJoe said:

Seattle's 1B hit .253 / .341 / .378 last year. I think Mountcastle (.452 SLG) or O'Hearn (.480 SLG) moves the needle for them. 

Seattle's 2B hit .205 / .294 / .313 last year. I think Westburg moves the needle for them. 

Seattle just lost RF Teoscar Hernandez to FA. I think Hays moves the needle for them. 

Seattle's DHs hit .207 / .285 / .392 last year. I think Santander moves the needle for them. 

 

They missed the playoffs by one game. 

No, they're not dealing Kirby or Gilbert for an Oriole package consisting only of guys who played 100+ games this year. But I can see them accepting a mixture of current players and prospects, as opposed to Chicago who will want only prospects. And just speaking for myself, I'd rather deal Mountcastle and Santander than Basallo and Mayo. 

Fair points.  I’ll temper it just a bit by noting that Seattle is a tough place to hit.  Seattle had a major league average team OPS off .734, but that equates to 106 OPS+.  And, 1B Ty France had a bad year (99 OPS+), but he’s still in his prime and has been good other years (125 OPS+ in 2022, 115 for his career).  Still, they do have some glaring holes.  

[Sports Guy]

23 minutes ago, ShoelesJoe said:

Seattle's 1B hit .253 / .341 / .378 last year. I think Mountcastle (.452 SLG) or O'Hearn (.480 SLG) moves the needle for them. 

Seattle's 2B hit .205 / .294 / .313 last year. I think Westburg moves the needle for them. 

Seattle just lost RF Teoscar Hernandez to FA. I think Hays moves the needle for them. 

Seattle's DHs hit .207 / .285 / .392 last year. I think Santander moves the needle for them. 

 

They missed the playoffs by one game. 

No, they're not dealing Kirby or Gilbert for an Oriole package consisting only of guys who played 100+ games this year. But I can see them accepting a mixture of current players and prospects, as opposed to Chicago who will want only prospects. And just speaking for myself, I'd rather deal Mountcastle and Santander than Basallo and Mayo. 

No doubt..would love to see a Santander or Mountcastle for Woo deal.

Edited November 17, 2023 by Sports Guy

[TommyPickles]

From MLBTradeRumors:

Bummer was tagged for nearly seven earned runs per nine over 58 1/3 innings. Among pitchers with 50+ frames, only 12 had a higher ERA than his 6.79 mark. While that’ll make this a head-scratching move for many Atlanta fans, it’s clear the front office is placing a lot more stock in Bummer’s promising underlying indicators.

Bummer struck out an above-average 29.2% of batters faced this year. He has fanned just under 27% of opponents over the course of his career. He averaged 94.5 MPH on his sinker (a solid mark for a left-hander) and missed bats against hitters of either handedness. While he’s no longer posting ground-ball numbers reminiscent of peak Zach Britton, he kept the ball on the ground at a lofty 58.2% clip. That’s the 10th-highest rate among relievers who logged at least 50 innings.

[RZNJ]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

No doubt..would love to see a Santander or Mountcastle for Woo deal.

I don’t see why they wouldn’t have just tendered Teoscar for 20M than trade a controllable starter with 6 years for 1 year of Santander at 12.7M.   
 

Mountcastle?   Maybe but it just seems like wishful thinking.

[Frobby]

I take it as a given that Bummer is a lot better than his 2023 ERA suggests.  But he’s not Josh Hader, or even Darren O’Day, so I’m surprised he was worth five players to the Braves.   I’d think about it more, but since I’m not a Braves or White Sox fan, why bother?

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I don’t see why they wouldn’t have just tendered Teoscar for 20M than trade a controllable starter with 6 years for 1 year of Santander at 12.7M.   
 

Mountcastle?   Maybe but it just seems like wishful thinking.

I assume Santander, if included, would be only one of several pieces going back for a guy like Kirby.