Cease vs everyone else

[CaptainRedbeard]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

If you don’t add another legit starter, there will be a lot of pressure on Bradish and GRod to have 60+ starts.

There’s a lot riding on Bradish and Grayson no matter what else happens. It would be a big blow to lose either of them for any period of time, they’re a lot better than whoever would replace them even if we were to slot Cease or somebody else into the SP depth chart. It’s kinda like it would hurt a lot to lose Adley or Gunnar for any period of time. You need your best players to be healthy. 

[Number5]

1 hour ago, RZNJ said:

Just talking about all things being equal and not factoring in bad performance and injury.  Absolutely, if Cease gets injured or has a terrible 1st half they could do a lot worse.

But you ARE factoring in good performance.  I agree with CoC, there is really no way to definitively say, one way or the other.

[Sports Guy]

Just now, CaptainRedbeard said:

There’s a lot riding on Bradish and Grayson no matter what else happens. It would be a big blow to lose either of them for any period of time, they’re a lot better than whoever would replace them even if we were to slot Cease or somebody else into the SP depth chart. It’s kinda like it would hurt a lot to lose Adley or Gunnar for any period of time. You need your best players to be healthy. 

Sure but adding a legit starter makes it easier to withstand a key injury. Right now, 3/5 of the rotation is a question mark.

[interloper]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

Sure but adding a legit starter makes it easier to withstand a key injury. Right now, 3/5 of the rotation is a question mark.

I have questions about all 5, really, but we could have 5 hall of famers and I'd probably still question if any of them can stay healthy. 

The TJ snake is gonna jump and bite somebody. We've been disproportionately lucky in that regard lately, even considering Felix. 

[Number5]

43 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Again, I think the unspoken part is the “all things being equal”.    All things aren’t always equal, for sure.

Equal to WHAT, though.  If Cease's performance into July is equal to 2022, then, yes, he'll command more in trade.  Equal to 2023?  Not so much.

[RZNJ]

3 minutes ago, Number5 said:

But you ARE factoring in good performance.  I agree with CoC, there is really no way to definitively say, one way or the other.

First thing I said is there’s no way to prove it but I bet most people feel you get more for pitching at the deadline.   You and CoC don't agree.  Noted.

[sportsfan8703]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Sure but adding a legit starter makes it easier to withstand a key injury. Right now, 3/5 of the rotation is a question mark.

We just don’t add up with them. It sounds good nationally, but when you take Holliday, Basallo, and Mayo, off the table, it’s obvious that we don’t have enough to get a deal done. Which is fine. 

Where we missed this offseason was EdRod and Stroman. 

Elias wants to win just like us. However, the Cease negotiations pretty much gave him a free pass this offseason. Without that, there would be more heat as to why we couldn’t afford even a Marcus Stroman, let alone an EdRod or Montgomery. 

The real question is… could we even afford to sign Kimbrel and Gibson?  I don’t think so. Kimbrel was the smart choice if we could only afford one. 

[RZNJ]

2 minutes ago, Number5 said:

Equal to WHAT, though.  If Cease's performance into July is equal to 2022, then, yes, he'll command more in trade.  Equal to 2023?  Not so much.

All things being equal is that he has a first half like his 2023 season.

[sportsfan8703]

6 minutes ago, interloper said:

I have questions about all 5, really, but we could have 5 hall of famers and I'd probably still question if any of them can stay healthy. 

The TJ snake is gonna jump and bite somebody. We've been disproportionately lucky in that regard lately, even considering Felix. 

Two big failures by Elias at the deadline. He could’ve gotten a Chapman, Robertson, Hicks, etc…. Realistically we needed two RH SU guys. That could’ve really lightened the load on Bautista. Instead Elias went with a salary dump in Fuji. He even got bailed out a bit that Webb was there and pitched well for us.

Then he didn’t want to pay the prospect price for Montgomery over Flaherty. St Louis would’ve covered the salary difference for the right prospects. 

Elias has a tough job going forward. We won’t have top draft picks, and we don’t spend in FA. 

[Number5]

3 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

All things being equal is that he has a first half like his 2023 season.

Then I would disagree with you.  If Cease continues his 2023 track, and the Orioles' prospects continue their tracks, it seems to me that Cease would, in fact, command less in trade at the end of July, not more.

[RZNJ]

6 minutes ago, Number5 said:

Then I would disagree with you.  If Cease continues his 2023 track, and the Orioles' prospects continue their tracks, it seems to me that Cease would, in fact, command less in trade at the end of July, not more.

Agree to disagree.  His 2023 track isn’t bad.  More teams feeling a sense of urgency at the deadline.  

[CaptainRedbeard]

20 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Sure but adding a legit starter makes it easier to withstand a key injury. Right now, 3/5 of the rotation is a question mark.

It would certainly be harder on the pen to lose a Bradish/Grayson as guys capable of pitching deep into games. No doubt about that, and Cease I think is the only name being considered now that offers you that.

But right now their depth chart goes 7 deep with Hall, Wells, and Irvin.  The big drop off is after them with McDermott and Povich. So what matters most in terms of the replacement level for withstanding injury is how much buffer you have before that drop off. 8 guys would be better, but 7 guys is not bad. It gets shorter if you think Hall or Wells should not be SP even if injuries hit, though. 

I do think that if they don’t trade for anybody they need to bring in some other SP to lengthen the depth chart, and/or another RP to make it easier to try Hall/Wells as SP. 

[Number5]

3 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Agree to disagree.  His 2023 track isn’t bad.  More teams feeling a sense of urgency at the deadline.  

Maybe gambling and waiting until the deadline will pay off for the White Sox, and maybe it won't.  I don't see any reason to strongly believe in one way over the other.  Apparently you do.  I'd be more inclined to go with the bird in the hand than the two in the bush, but I tend to be conservative.

[RZNJ]

5 minutes ago, Number5 said:

Maybe gambling and waiting until the deadline will pay off for the White Sox, and maybe it won't.  I don't see any reason to strongly believe in one way over the other.  Apparently you do.  I'd be more inclined to go with the bird in the hand than the two in the bush, but I tend to be conservative.

I don’t strongly believe they should wait.  It’s somewhat risky but Cease has a track record of durability.   If Cease pitches like he did last year I think they’ll get about what they’re being offered now, not necessarily by the Orioles.   If he pitches like 2022, they’ll likely get more.   If he stinks or gets hurt they’re screwed.  I think the odds of the latter are comfortably, for me, under 50%.

[interloper]

36 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Two big failures by Elias at the deadline. He could’ve gotten a Chapman, Robertson, Hicks, etc…. Realistically we needed two RH SU guys. That could’ve really lightened the load on Bautista. Instead Elias went with a salary dump in Fuji. He even got bailed out a bit that Webb was there and pitched well for us.

Then he didn’t want to pay the prospect price for Montgomery over Flaherty. St Louis would’ve covered the salary difference for the right prospects. 

Elias has a tough job going forward. We won’t have top draft picks, and we don’t spend in FA. 

Hard to argue with much of this, with the caveat that of course we never know what trade negotiations took place or why they ultimately failed. But yeah - we absolutely did not help ourselves at the deadline, and Webb was kind of a miracle. Along with Perez who suddenly found it. 

I've said this a lot here, and have even heard one of the writers at MLBTR say it in a live chat... our farm system is a curse in trades because teams cannot help themselves from asking for our top 5 guys in every trade, and they just don't want to hear about the 6-10 guys. Because the 1-5 guys exist and are so much better than everyone else.