What are the odds that Holliday makes the Opening Day roster?

[Frobby]

We get varying opinions about Holliday’s chances of making the Opening Day roster, so I thought I’d put it in a poll.  What do you say?

[btdart20]

I'd have him on the Super 2 team control plan.  It's in Holliday's hands to make enough noise to change Elias' mind.  In my mind, that's a 20-ish% chance.  Not quite "slim" but something less than 50%.

But I can also see the debate between having his age 20 season or his age 26 season.  Which would lower the odds into the "very slim" realm.

 

[interloper]

I said 50/50 in another thread based on how long they kept him in camp last year as a guy destined for A ball. Now he's a AAA player and Elias has stated he will have an opportunity to make the team. Lip service? Maybe. But if he's destroying ST and maybe there's an injury, etc, I don't think they'd hesitate to bring him up for OD. 

Basically, I think Elias is fully leaving it up to Holliday and will make a call at the end of ST. I don't subscribe to the idea that Elias has already decided to nab that extra year. 

Edited November 17, 2023 by interloper

[Pickles]

It has a lot more to do with the other guys than Holiday himself.

A rash of injuries would be his best chance and of course he has no control over that.

[Aristotelian]

I'm going with very slim. He is ahead of the Gunnar schedule but not that far ahead. I think he could use another 100 AB's to master AAA level pitching and settle on a defensive position, plus that would buy us some time to evaluate Ortiz and Westburg. 500 AB's would be plenty to have a good shot at ROY. 

[RZNJ]

Very slim.  He would have to look amazing and have an amazing spring to MAYBE force their hand.

[interloper]

One benefit to bringing him up right away is you get the month or two (or three) of adjustment out of the way and hopefully he's on fire towards the end of the season. That said, it's not too big of a timing difference if you wait a month and grab the extra year. 

[Sports Guy]

I’d say 10-15%
 

 

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, interloper said:

One benefit to bringing him up right away is you get the month or two (or three) of adjustment out of the way and hopefully he's on fire towards the end of the season. That said, it's not too big of a timing difference if you wait a month and grab the extra year. 

1 month isn’t enough.

Early to mid June.  Don’t want another Adley situation.

[jabba72]

20 minutes ago, Pickles said:

It has a lot more to do with the other guys than Holiday himself.

A rash of injuries would be his best chance and of course he has no control over that.

Thats kind of where im at too. The O's dont really have a position open for Holliday at the moment. So its in Elias interests long-term for Holliday to remain in Norfolk to start the year. The O's infield situation is fluid and could change by opening day. But for now I put his Opening Day chances at 0%. 

[CaptainRedbeard]

Holliday is caught in a part of his developmental path where he’s very likely ready to at least hold his own at the MLB level, but unless he comes into ST looking like he’s made great strides in the power department over the offseason, he’s not likely to put up a ROY season. Even ignoring the fact that the Orioles have a ton of other quality options, it makes more sense to at least wait on the extra year of control. It wouldn’t be at all crazy to have him on the OD roster but the PPI still does not provide enough incentive to do it.

Add in that the Orioles are loaded with infielders and there’s more incentive to wait even further until Super 2 (which would also be long enough to really decrease odds of a ROY finish buying back the extra year, like Adley) or even possibly the 45 game cutoff for retaining rookie eligibility for 2025.

But I don’t see how the Orioles could leave him in AAA if he’s clearly the best option for winning games right now. Adding even an incremental 1 WAR to the 2024 team has a ton of value given where this team is expected to be. It’s probably going to be apparent that’s the case early in the season, just not OD. 

[DirtyBird]

I was hoping for actual odds.

[btdart20]

36 minutes ago, jabba72 said:

Thats kind of where im at too. The O's dont really have a position open for Holliday at the moment. So its in Elias interests long-term for Holliday to remain in Norfolk to start the year. The O's infield situation is fluid and could change by opening day. But for now I put his Opening Day chances at 0%. 

True.

[oriole]

If Urias and/or Mateo are retained then I think the chances are pretty close to zero. Not that those players are good enough to block Holliday, but they are a good cushion until he is deemed ready by whatever metric will be used. 
 

If Urias and Mateo are both gone over the offseason then I think it’s a toss up between Ortiz and Holliday, but I don’t see it coming to that. 

[Moose Milligan]

Slim.  Less than 25%.