2023 #13 Prospect Cade Povich - LHP

[Tony-OH]

https://orioleshangout.com/2023/11/19/orioles-2023-13-prospect-cade-povich-lhp/

Inconsistent is the word that probably best describes this 23-year old left-handed starter, but when he was good, he flashed potential of a mid-rotation starter and comes in as the #13 prospect.

Cade Povich
Throws: Left
Age (as of Jun 30th) : 23
2023 Level: AA/AAA

Pitches (current/future value)
Fastball: 50/55
Cutter: 45/50
Sweeper: 45/50
Change: 45/50
Curveball: 40/45
Command: 40/45

9/16 -Best AAA start, 6 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 2BB, 8 K

Last AAA start of the season

Most Likely Future Role: 4th/5th starter
Ceiling: Mid-rotation starter

2023 Highlights

What we know:  When he's commanding the baseball, he's one of the best pitching prospect in the system who can flash three solid major league average offerings including a high spin rate fastball that gets a lot of swing and miss up in the zone despite averagish velocity (91-94, t95-96). The issue is he's still searching for consistency from start to start and just walks too many hitters.

The 23-year old southpaw started off in Bowie alternating good and bad starts over his first six outings before going into a five start funk in mid-May, early June where he put up an ugly 8.47 ERA with batters slashing .325/.426/.554/.980 in five starts. He broke out of that with his best start of his career against Richmond when he went seven innings, allowing just one hit, no walks, and striking out a career high 13 batters.

Unfortunately he had two more bad starts before righting himself to earn a promotion to AAA in late July. In AAA, he had two good starts out of three before bottoming out on August 16th when he allowed nine earned runs on seven hits and two walks in just an innings and two-thirds of work. He finished strong though over his last six starts pitching to a 3.26 ERA, with 40 strike outs and 20 walks while holding batters to a .167/.300/.241/.541 slash over 30.1 innings.

The 6-3 hurler throws five distinct pitches and it could be part off the reason why he's so inconsistent. His sweeper has really good movement but he struggles to throw it for strikes consistently. the same can be said for the curveball which he buries in the dirt a lot to try and induce chase. If he could land these pitches for strikes more often he will have a better chance of keeping hitters off his fastball. The change will flash average to even plus at times with nice fade and drop and induces swings and misses from right-handers.

What we don’t know: Can he find more consistency with throwing strikes with his offspeed pitches? Can he find the consistency from start to start? He'll pitch at 24-years old next year and will have two full offseasons under the Orioles program so the hope is he will find a way to keep his mechanics on track and find the zone more.

What we think: Povich is an interesting pitcher because the quality of stuff and ability to go deep into games makes him an intriguing starting pitching prospect. His walk rate climbed to a career high (14.7%/5.8 BB/9) and his strikeouts fell to a career low (10.5 K/9) in his 10 AAA starts, but he held AAA batters to just a .194/.315/.327/.642 slash line. If he can decrease the walks, he could very well be an option for the Orioles in 2024 at some point if they have need. If he puts it all together though he has a chance to become a staple in the Orioles rotation for years to come.

[LookinUp]

I knew he was inconsistent and had command issues, but I honestly thought he had better stuff. I’m not sure if Tony’s being conservative or if I’m just too much of a homer.

[Tony-OH]

13 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

I knew he was inconsistent and had command issues, but I honestly thought he had better stuff. I’m not sure if Tony’s being conservative or if I’m just too much of a homer.

Are you talking now of future? 

Remember, I take things into consideration like the consistency of the pitch and ability to throw it for strikes when doing the grades. Povich well flash you plus pitches with his sweeper, curve and change, but not enough to think they will end up there or are there yet.

[Frobby]

Povich still has a pretty high ceiling.  He’s just sooooooo inconsistent.  

[LookinUp]

39 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Are you talking now of future? 

Remember, I take things into consideration like the consistency of the pitch and ability to throw it for strikes when doing the grades. Povich well flash you plus pitches with his sweeper, curve and change, but not enough to think they will end up there or are there yet.

It’s important to remember that 1) you don’t grade like you’re a homer and 2) your ceiling’s are not defined as best possible outcome, rather they’re some probability mixed in. That’s why your ceiling’s aren’t littered with hall of famers and perennial all stars. So I’d say it’s a reasonably conservative approach.

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, LookinUp said:

It’s important to remember that 1) you don’t grade like you’re a homer and 2) your ceiling’s are not defined as best possible outcome, rather they’re some probability mixed in. That’s why your ceiling’s aren’t littered with hall of famers and perennial all stars. So I’d say it’s a reasonably conservative approach.

Thanks. I think it's just unfair to put a Hall of Fame ceiling on a young player no matter how good he is currently. Maybe I put one of Machado? Can't really remember, but if I'm putting 70 or more ceilings on guys they have HoF possibilities.

[Tony-OH]

Here's a highlight video I put together as a test. If you like it please like it, comment and subscibe to our You Tube channel.

Thanks.

 

[Jagwar]

1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

Here's a highlight video I put together as a test. If you like it please like it, comment and subscibe to our You Tube channel.

Thanks.

 

Based on that video, he strikes everybody out. 

[emmett16]

4 hours ago, Jagwar said:

Based on that video, he strikes everybody out. 

13.1 k/9 Is striking out just about half the batters he faces.  Pretty crazy when you think about it.  He may be inconsistent (we also don’t know what he’s working on/trying to do out there) but he is dominant.  He can manipulate the ball in a way most people only dream of.  

Edited December 22, 2023 by emmett16

[Billy F-Face3]

5 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

Here's a highlight video I put together as a test. If you like it please like it, comment and subscibe to our You Tube channel.

Thanks.

 

Thanks for this video and this thread. His body language just yells "Big Leager!" to me when I watch him on the mound and I think about the future. He moves with confidence, and exudes a quiet confidence. Which is the foundation for the development of every athletic competitor.

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

13.1 k/9 Is just about half the batters he faces.  Pretty crazy when you think about it.  He may be inconsistent (we also don’t know what he’s working on/trying to do out there) but he is dominant.  He can manipulate the ball in a way most people only dream of.  

Half the hitters he gets out.

[emmett16]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

Half the hitters he gets out.

Thx. Fixed. 

[Frobby]

4 hours ago, emmett16 said:

13.1 k/9 Is striking out just about half the batters he faces. 

No, it means about half the outs he gets are via the strikeout.  In AA Povich had a 13.1 K/9 and a 33.4% K rate.  In AAA it was 10.5 K/9 and 26.9% K rate.  

[Sports Guy]

 

[sportsfan8703]

Holt can use his wizard powers in his new role to fix him.