Orioles 2023 #24 Prospect Jud Fabian - CF

[Tony-OH]

Jud Fabian

Pos: CF
Bats: R
Throws: R
Age (as of Jun 30th) : 23
2023 Level: A+/AA

Tools (current/future value)
Hit: 30/40
Game Power: 55/60
Raw Power: 60/60
Run: 60/60
Defense: 50/55 

Most Likely: 4th/5th outfielder
Ceiling: 2nd Division starter

Bio: A wise scout once said that you really can't judge a hitting prospect until they get to AA. Unfortunately for this 22-year old center fielder, if that true, he majorly failed his first audition at this important level. After starting the year well in Aberdeen slashing .281/.392/.490/.882 with 9 homers and 13 doubles in 237 Pas, the right-handed hitter was promoted to Bowie (AA).

In AA though he hit a wall and hit it hard, striking out in 37.5% (108 in 288 PAs). He did manage to draw a decent amount of walks (15.3%), and showed plus power putting up a .223 ISO with 15 home runs, six doubles and a triple. Pitchers were able to pitch effectively to him up in the strike zone and then get him to chase offspeed. Despite the huge amount of miss that included a 16.7% SwStr% in AA, he did end up with 98 wRC+ due to his power and ability to draw a walk.

Defensively he plays a plus centerfield with an above average arm and is yet to commit an error out there. He also played some corner outfield as well. He hits lefties well slashing .248/.381/.541/.922 against them in 134 PAs on the season.

He has above average speed and stole 30 bases on the season. With his speed and power combination, ability to hit lefthanders effectively and his above average defense in center field, Fabian gives off pretty good 4th outfielder vibes. There is going to be some significant miss in his bat, but he works counts well enough to get some walks and can do damage on mistake pitches.

He may not end up an everyday guy at the major league level, but there are worse 4th outfielders in the majors.

[Say O!]

Floor profile as 4th OF something needed in this system, since his RH profile complements/balances the LH dominant outfield prospects (Cowser, Bradfield, Kjerstad).

[Tony-OH]

4 minutes ago, Say O! said:

Floor profile as 4th OF something needed in this system, since his RH profile complements/balances the LH dominant outfield prospects (Cowser, Bradfield, Kjerstad).

I'm not sure his floor is a 4th outfielder. His floor could be a complete miss if he can't make better contact. Now I do think with his ability hit lefties a bit and his good defense that he does profile as a 4th/5th outfielder, but he's got to close some holes in that swing.

[Frobby]

I think 2024 is huge for him. We’ve seen other guys in our system cut their K rates pretty significantly at times.   Fabian needs to do that.  Personally, I think Hudson Haskin is presently a better candidate for 4th OF than Fabian, even though Fabian is the better CF.   

[RZNJ]

7 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I think 2024 is huge for him. We’ve seen other guys in our system cut their K rates pretty significantly at times.   Fabian needs to do that.  Personally, I think Hudson Haskin is presently a better candidate for 4th OF than Fabian, even though Fabian is the better CF.   

Fabian needs to make more contact but I think he does everything else better than Haskin.  Better defense. More power.  Take a walk. Steal a base.

[Frobby]

7 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Fabian needs to make more contact but I think he does everything else better than Haskin.  Better defense. More power.  Take a walk. Steal a base.

Haskin is much better at getting HBP than Fabian.    Only 85 BB but 55 HBP in 966 PA.

Otherwise, I agree with you, but making contact is just about the most important skill there is on a baseball field.  Some guys just can’t figure out how to do it. 

[RZNJ]

Just now, Frobby said:

Haskin is much better at getting HBP than Fabian.    Only 85 BB but 55 HBP in 966 PA.

Otherwise, I agree with you, but making contact is just about the most important skill there is on a baseball field.  Some guys just can’t figure out how to do it. 

Right.  Fabian struck out about 25% at Aberdeen.  It really spiked at Bowie.  We’ll see.

[Billy F-Face3]

I like this thread. I like Fabian and you guys are offering good information in your comments.

We will see. We are rooting for him.

[Rbiggs2525]

Probably in the minority but would have Fabian more in the 15/16 range. The DSL/FCL guys have very small sample size but loads of potential. I believe if he cuts down his Strikeout rate he could be perfect fit for left field defense at OPACY. Second offseason Elias and company get to work with him. 

[LookinUp]

That’s actually a more promising write up than I expected. Maybe there is still some hope for this kid. I feel like it has to help that he has a single thing that he really needs to work on. You can’t teach the rest, but he has it. You can work every single day on your swing though. So maybe there’s a shot.

[Roll Tide]

On 11/24/2023 at 9:21 AM, Tony-OH said:

Jud Fabian

Pos: CF
Bats: R
Throws: R
Age (as of Jun 30th) : 23
2023 Level: A+/AA

Tools (current/future value)
Hit: 30/40
Game Power: 55/60
Raw Power: 60/60
Run: 60/60
Defense: 50/55 

Most Likely: 4th/5th outfielder
Ceiling: 2nd Division starter

Bio: A wise scout once said that you really can't judge a hitting prospect until they get to AA. Unfortunately for this 22-year old center fielder, if that true, he majorly failed his first audition at this important level. After starting the year well in Aberdeen slashing .281/.392/.490/.882 with 9 homers and 13 doubles in 237 Pas, the right-handed hitter was promoted to Bowie (AA).

In AA though he hit a wall and hit it hard, striking out in 37.5% (108 in 288 PAs). He did manage to draw a decent amount of walks (15.3%), and showed plus power putting up a .223 ISO with 15 home runs, six doubles and a triple. Pitchers were able to pitch effectively to him up in the strike zone and then get him to chase offspeed. Despite the huge amount of miss that included a 16.7% SwStr% in AA, he did end up with 98 wRC+ due to his power and ability to draw a walk.

Defensively he plays a plus centerfield with an above average arm and is yet to commit an error out there. He also played some corner outfield as well. He hits lefties well slashing .248/.381/.541/.922 against them in 134 PAs on the season.

He has above average speed and stole 30 bases on the season. With his speed and power combination, ability to hit lefthanders effectively and his above average defense in center field, Fabian gives off pretty good 4th outfielder vibes. There is going to be some significant miss in his bat, but he works counts well enough to get some walks and can do damage on mistake pitches.

He may not end up an everyday guy at the major league level, but there are worse 4th outfielders in the majors.

It seems Fabian needs more time to adjust to AA pitching. His K% was 10 points higher than anywhere else which give hopes that he can get closer to his norm. His FB and LD are way off also. The good news is he adjusted well in his 2nd try at A+. So there is hope that he can repeat that trend.

[Aristotelian]

I really thought he would still be higher despite the sub-.200 BA in AA. Despite the terrible BA, he managed a respectable .700+ OPS and 9 HR in 200 AB's. Definitely a disappointing showing in AA and high risk of being a complete washout, but plus CF with 20+ HR power is still interesting. He did end with a decent .233/.393/.788 September. I agree with Frobby, 2024 will be a make or break year. 

[Warehouse]

Since 2006 (which is what fangraphs goes back to), there have been 233 AA hitter single seasons with at least 90 PAs and over 35% K%. I found 8 cases in this period where the player eventually made the MLB. I’m sure I probably missed a cup of coffee or two, but 95%+ of these players never made the majors with many never making it to AAA.

 

Additionally, I checked the 40 MLB players with 200+ PAs and a K% of 29% or higher from 1955-2005 - three of them had AA seasons with the criteria above.

 

That being said, I think Jud does have a path, albeit a narrow one. If you look at Teoscar Hernandez as a comp and assume similar power, slightly higher K rate, slightly higher BB rate, above average CF defense instead of below average corner OF defense, and plus baserunning instead of net negative baserunning, then he would certainly have a role.

 

However, I think he’ll need to drop his K rate in Bowie to less than 30% when he repeats AA next year. Other open questions for me include whether the power will translate from Bowie to Camden, if his low BABIP is random or inherent to his approach/batted ball patterns, and how good of a centerfielder he can be at the MLB level.

 

Name	Year	Age	PAs	K%	BB%	ISO	OPS	wRC+	MLP Pos	MLB fWAR
Paul Ratcliff	1963	19	101	36.6%	5.9%	.099	.648		C	.6
Rob Deer	1982	21	474	37.3%	11.2%	.261	.778		RF/1B	14.3
Bo Jackson	1986	23	212	38.2%	10.4%	.196	.841		LF	7.7
Dusty Coleman	2012	25	486	37.4%	8.4%	.162	.647	81	SS	.1
Joey Gallo	2014	20	291	39.5%	10.8%	.292	.858	141	LF	15.7
Teoscar Hernandez	2014	21	98	36.7%	2.0%	.189	.773	118	RF	12.6
Bobby Dalbec	2018	23	124	37.1%	4.8%	.252	.836	126	1B/3B	-.2
Trey Cabbage	2021	24	278	39.6%	11.2%	.270	.882	130	1B	-.3
Sam Huff	2021	23	191	40.3%	8.4%	.202	.748	98	C	1.0
Jud Fabian	2023	22	299	37.5%	15.3%	.223	.713	98	TBD	TBD

This list excludes Wilkin Ramirez whose K% was 28.6% at age 22 in 482 PAs, but then had 234 AA PAs at age 24 with 35.7% K%.

 

Some additional context:

Deer and Gallo were both younger and hit for a lot more power.

Bo Jackson started directly in AA after being drafted. He was ineligible to play NCAA baseball for most of the prior spring. Thus, he may have been a bit rusty.

Teoscar Hernandez season was a relatively small sample size of less than a hundred plate appearances.

[emmett16]

1 hour ago, Warehouse said:

Since 2006 (which is what fangraphs goes back to), there have been 233 AA hitter single seasons with at least 90 PAs and over 35% K%. I found 8 cases in this period where the player eventually made the MLB. I’m sure I probably missed a cup of coffee or two, but 95%+ of these players never made the majors with many never making it to AAA.

 

Additionally, I checked the 40 MLB players with 200+ PAs and a K% of 29% or higher from 1955-2005 - three of them had AA seasons with the criteria above.

 

That being said, I think Jud does have a path, albeit a narrow one. If you look at Teoscar Hernandez as a comp and assume similar power, slightly higher K rate, slightly higher BB rate, above average CF defense instead of below average corner OF defense, and plus baserunning instead of net negative baserunning, then he would certainly have a role.

 

However, I think he’ll need to drop his K rate in Bowie to less than 30% when he repeats AA next year. Other open questions for me include whether the power will translate from Bowie to Camden, if his low BABIP is random or inherent to his approach/batted ball patterns, and how good of a centerfielder he can be at the MLB level.

 

Name	Year	Age	PAs	K%	BB%	ISO	OPS	wRC+	MLP Pos	MLB fWAR
Paul Ratcliff	1963	19	101	36.6%	5.9%	.099	.648		C	.6
Rob Deer	1982	21	474	37.3%	11.2%	.261	.778		RF/1B	14.3
Bo Jackson	1986	23	212	38.2%	10.4%	.196	.841		LF	7.7
Dusty Coleman	2012	25	486	37.4%	8.4%	.162	.647	81	SS	.1
Joey Gallo	2014	20	291	39.5%	10.8%	.292	.858	141	LF	15.7
Teoscar Hernandez	2014	21	98	36.7%	2.0%	.189	.773	118	RF	12.6
Bobby Dalbec	2018	23	124	37.1%	4.8%	.252	.836	126	1B/3B	-.2
Trey Cabbage	2021	24	278	39.6%	11.2%	.270	.882	130	1B	-.3
Sam Huff	2021	23	191	40.3%	8.4%	.202	.748	98	C	1.0
Jud Fabian	2023	22	299	37.5%	15.3%	.223	.713	98	TBD	TBD

This list excludes Wilkin Ramirez whose K% was 28.6% at age 22 in 482 PAs, but then had 234 AA PAs at age 24 with 35.7% K%.

 

Some additional context:

Deer and Gallo were both younger and hit for a lot more power.

Bo Jackson started directly in AA after being drafted. He was ineligible to play NCAA baseball for most of the prior spring. Thus, he may have been a bit rusty.

Teoscar Hernandez season was a relatively small sample size of less than a hundred plate appearances.

Fantastic post!!!  I guess the good news is his BB% is far superior than all on the list.