Orioles 2023 #31-50 Prospects

[Yossarian]

11 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

There are a lot of factors that decide who goes into the top-30, but I would agree that age and time in the system would have to be taken into consideration when it comes to figuring out that percentage. When I look at this 31-50 list, I could see multiple guys breaking out and ending up in the top 30. We'll have a better idea of guys that were just drafted last year after a full season of pro ball next year and of course, ranking  16-17 year olds is tough because some are going to absolutely flame out, and others like Sosa are going to grow three inches and come back a different guy. 

My goal with going out to 75 players increments of Top 30, 31-50, and 51-75 is to give the fan an idea of legitimate prospects (Top 30), Guys that could become Top 30 next year (31-50), and guys to keep an eye on who could break out as well but may have more things that need to happen to get there (51-75).

Thank you.  Your efforts are certainly appreciated. 

[LookinUp]

On 11/26/2023 at 1:33 PM, btdart20 said:

Maybe I’m the eternal optimist but there’s light in the darkness.  

2022: 9 of the top 30

Graduated 2 during 2023:  Grayson and Hall.  And used 1 (Rom) as a trade chip at the trade deadline.

2023:  11 of the top 30 with a decent amount of fringe pitchers and significantly more pitching heavy draft.  And a couple of international guys.

Sure, it’s still a weakness.  It’s been a weakness for the past few years.  But it’s at least trending in the right direction.

For what it's worth, there are 10 pitchers on the 31-50 list, with several in the low 30's. 

I feel like there's real upside with our pitching prospects, with a few likely to help at some point in 2024. It's not the strength of the org, but it is starting to bear fruit.

I agree though. I'd love 2 upside arms in the top 3 picks this year. I'm not sure that's how Elias will roll though.

[Tony-OH]

On 11/27/2023 at 1:19 PM, RZNJ said:

Going strictly on stats and what I’ve read I’d guess that Aron Estrada (45) is the biggest mover on this list next year.

My two sleepers are Estrada and Matthew Etzel.

I'm sticking with Acevedo as my breakout candidate. If he can develop better plate discipline, he could really take off. The tools and premium body frame make me think there is more in there.

[emmett16]

https://www.instagram.com/reel/C049lv0uh7Q/
 

I like the way the ball is coming off the bat lol.  Looks like the kids are in good hands this winter. 

[btdart20]

On 12/16/2023 at 1:47 PM, emmett16 said:

https://www.instagram.com/reel/C049lv0uh7Q/
 

I like the way the ball is coming off the bat lol.  Looks like the kids are in good hands this winter. 

HK and Rhodes at the compound too.  Awesome to see on a few levels!

[emmett16]

21 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

HK and Rhodes at the compound too.  Awesome to see on a few levels!

Their set-up is next level absurd.   Those kids have trained to be pros since the day they could walk, it appears. 

HK absolutely destroys the baseball.  

You can also see that one of those swings is not like the others...HK and JH are next level. 

Edited December 17, 2023 by emmett16

[Tony-OH]

15 hours ago, emmett16 said:

Their set-up is next level absurd.   Those kids have trained to be pros since the day they could walk, it appears. 

HK absolutely destroys the baseball.  

You can also see that one of those swings is not like the others...HK and JH are next level. 

I couldn't even tell that was Kjerstad, but I was like, holy crap that second guy has a quick bat.

[emmett16]

17 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I couldn't even tell that was Kjerstad, but I was like, holy crap that second guy has a quick bat.

So quick and I'm sure he swings a 34 or 34.5 and it looked like a toothpick.  He's a very well put together young man. 

[Frobby]

15 hours ago, emmett16 said:

Their set-up is next level absurd.   Those kids have trained to be pros since the day they could walk, it appears. 

HK absolutely destroys the baseball.  

You can also see that one of those swings is not like the others...HK and JH are next level. 

I wonder how they decide who gets invited to Shangri-La?   Can’t hurt Rhodes to work out there and get some advice from our new unofficial hitting instructor.   

This is Exhibit 1 in why it can be advantageous if your dad was a former major leaguer.   
 

[emmett16]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I wonder how they decide who gets invited to Shangri-La?   Can’t hurt Rhodes to work out there and get some advice from our new unofficial hitting instructor.   

This is Exhibit 1 in why it can be advantageous if your dad was a former major leaguer.   
 

I was thinking geography plays a part..  HK is from TX and they are working out in OK.    HK and Rhodes are just about the same age.  Imagine they played against each other all through HS and then again in the SEC.  Probably became quick friends when they got into the system.  

[LookinUp]

3 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

I couldn't even tell that was Kjerstad, but I was like, holy crap that second guy has a quick bat.

Quick bat, but his leg kick is just so weird to me. It's almost mechanical. Then he whips the bat through at 1,000 mph. lol

[btdart20]

On 11/26/2023 at 8:39 PM, Tony-OH said:

41. Alex Pham – RHP (A+/AA): A short, four-pitch pitchability righty who can throw all four of his offerings over for strikes. Mixes his pitches up and is able to keep hitters of balance by changing speeds and hitting his spots.  His fastball sits 90-92 with some arm side run, but doesn't miss many bats so he has to be very fine with the command. The change is his best offspeed offering and he'll throw them against righties as well as left-handed hitters. He can get some swing and miss on the pitch because he throws them for strikes and then moves them just off the plate with two strikes. His 12-6 curveball can be soft at times and his slider is more of a cutter with limited vertical movement. With no plus pitch, it's hard to see him as anything more than a 5th starter/long guy type. He does have a little Zach Davies in him so don't count him out, but he'll need to prove it AAA next year to get a chance.

Bumping this because I'm a little interested in Alex Pham.  He's not a big guy, but the lack of "prototypical" height might be an advantage in other ways.

The negative is that his velo sits in the 91-92 range and touches 94-95.  He's not going to overpower anyone.  So how has he been successful?  And what's his path forward?

Start with the base that he has shown he can change speeds and location pretty well.  (Not that Aberdeen helps with video...)

Alex Pham's 11 strikeouts | 06/11/2023 | MiLB.com

He throws over the top (3/4 plus at least).  So my suspicion is that a low-ish release height (given his stature) with his more vertical arm angle could produce a more vertical backspin/good ride.  And ultimately, a low angle of entry into the hitting zone.  Especially high in the zone or just above.  But I wasn't able to find any video of a high 4S...  (I guess we'll find out this season in Norfolk with the added tech!)

 

Pair that with a few solid secondary pitches (or even primary lead pitches) and the 4S plays up.

 

Looks like a solid changeup (to a lefty and a righty) - Alex Pham's back-to-back K's | 09/13/2023 | MiLB.com

4S low - Alex Pham

[Frobby]

Pham was a solid candidate for O’s MiL pitcher of the year - certainly a strong second to McDermott.  Of course, that’s not the same as being a top prospect, but it’s something to be proud of and is a reason to keep an eye on him to see if he can sustain it next year.