Is Luzardo a realistic target?

[Roll Tide]

7 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I could see them wanting one of the vet guys..I just don’t think they can be the centerpiece.

Id offer Cowser/Westburg, Ortiz/Norby and Mountcastle.

If they chose Westburg, they can’t have him him and Ortiz.

I just don’t think they are wanting prospects. Santander and Hays or Mountcastle all offer predictable production at around 170. 
 

I don’t care about who is the centerpiece….it doesn’t matter. They lost 36 homers and 75 RBI. They only scored 666 runs. So two of those guys add a round per game over what they have now with a net of 100 runs. Then add Cowser or Norby or Ortiz. And another less rated prospect. I know technically Norby isn’t the equivalent of the other 2 buts he’s expected to have a strong offensive side. So if they value that give them a 4th player in our 11 to 20 range.

[Rbiggs2525]

2 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

So another team just traded a player with an extension clause. They can do a similar deal with Anthony Santander. Ortiz is a top 50 prospet and is graded at 55, quit pretending he’s fringe. Most of our top 15 guys would be in many teams top 5. That’s why you are obviously undervaluing them. Norby, Bradfield, and Beavers all are 50 rated prospects per MLB. We have a number of other guys that rank as 45. Cowser is graded out as 60. There is plenty to make a deal with.

I think the difference is the assumption Marlins are not trading Luzardo to add payroll. Santander is looking like a 15 million per year player. We will need to take from affordable mlb ready talent.

[Frobby]

12 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

 

Also Pasquantino is 1,000 times more valuable than Santander.

Hmmm, exaggerate much?  I was impressed by Vinnie when we played KC, and yes he has a lot more service time.  He’s significantly more valuable than Santander.   Still, he’s coming off shoulder surgery (non-throwing shoulder) and a 108 OPS+ partial season.  So I’m guessing it’s 999 tor less times more valuable.  

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

I just don’t think they are wanting prospects. Santander and Hays or Mountcastle all offer predictable production at around 170. 
 

I don’t care about who is the centerpiece….it doesn’t matter. They lost 36 homers and 75 RBI. They only scored 666 runs. So two of those guys add a round per game over what they have now with a net of 100 runs. Then add Cowser or Norby or Ortiz. And another less rated prospect. I know technically Norby isn’t the equivalent of the other 2 buts he’s expected to have a strong offensive side. So if they value that give them a 4th player in our 11 to 20 range.

Cowser shouldn’t be lumped in with those 2. Miami likely wants ML ready talent. I don’t think they would want guys who are far away.

[Sports Guy]

Just now, Frobby said:

Hmmm, exaggerate much?  I was impressed by Vinnie when we played KC, and yes he has a lot more service time.  He’s significantly more valuable than Santander.   Still, he’s coming off shoulder surgery (non-throwing shoulder) and a 108 OPS+ partial season.  So I’m guessing it’s 999 tor less times more valuable.  

He’s also already 26 and has good but not great power (similar power to Adley)

[RZNJ]

8 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

We could probably get Luzardo if we offer Basallo or Mayo. Anyone want to do that?

No. I’d rather just roll with what we’ve got if that’s what it takes.

 

[Roll Tide]

21 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

If you honestly believe that Santander is a more valuable trade commodity than Pasquantino then there's no point in arguing with you because you are not of sound mind and body. 

I’m not saying he offer more in some trade calculator. I’m saying he can be expected with a pretty high probability 30 Homeruns and 90+ RBI. Right now Pas can’t be.

If the Marlins GMs goal is finding 40-50 home runs and 180 RBIs to help them win it  in 2024 he may value the pieces more highly. We could offer one of Basallo , Kjerstad, Mayo, or even Holiday. Likely None of them out produce Santander in 2024.

And I said 2 prospects … possibly Cowser.

So is he trying to win in 2024 or get highly rated players for the future?

 

 

So he fills a current need. So think think Pas is drastically more valuable than Cowser? 
 

Just to save you time Pas is rated at 41 and Cowser at 39. 
 

 

Edited December 16, 2023 by Roll Tide

[Roll Tide]

12 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Cowser shouldn’t be lumped in with those 2. Miami likely wants ML ready talent. I don’t think they would want guys who are far away.

You could be right .l..but there are no guarantees with MLB ready talent. Look at Cowser this year…..So if they want the World Series would they take some predictable and some “MLB ready”? As opposed to 2 -3 top prospects that may add nothing to 2024. They have the same problem we had this year except hitting vs pitching 

[Roll Tide]

15 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Cowser shouldn’t be lumped in with those 2. Miami likely wants ML ready talent. I don’t think they would want guys who are far away.

I think a argument can be made that all 3 are “MLB Ready” only Vowser has been given the opportunity 

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Roll Tide said:

I think a argument can be made that all 3 are “MLB Ready” only Vowser has been given the opportunity 

They are all ML ready but Cowser is the better prospect with the higher ceiling. When you say they can have 1 of the 3, you are saying they all have similar value. Thats not the case.

[ChosenOne21]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

I agree that package is not enough for Luzardo, but the Bradish analogy doesn’t work at all.  Bradish is the better pitcher and he has 5 years of service remaining to Luzardo’s 3.  It’s also hard to think about since we need pitching and not OF, SS or C (despite your last sentence assuming that away).  

I think that's debatable. Luzardo is younger and has done it for an extra year. His FIP is more in line with his actual numbers than Bradish as well. Granted, Bradish has put up a sub-3.00 ERA and Luzardo has not, but I think they're close enough in value that the analogy works.

In any case, the package isn't close to enough for either player.

53 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Santander has had 650 ABs 2 years in a row. Trying to devalue him using that is a fools errand. 3 WAR is worth somewhere around 18-21 million depending on whose info you’re reading. So getting him for 12 is a relative bargain. Plus he’s knocked in 90 2 years in a row and that’s what they need. Plus they could agree on it being contingent on an extension. 
 

And as the other poster mentioned Pasquantino was mentioned by Rosenthal. He has control but was worth .1 War….hardly proven. You could argue they’d get better with Norby ….whom I’m confident would give control, exceed .1 WAR, and probably outperform anything P does.

Could have sworn Santander missed some time with injuries in the past two years. Wasn't there some nagging thing one year that was sapping his performance?

Anyway, even a 100% healthy Santander isn't all that valuable to most clubs. Sure, he's a bit of a bargain, but not that crazy of a bargain. Also, not a single club in baseball cares what his RBI total is. Santander is 100% not the kind of player you extend and especially not one you trade for and extend. No chance anyone is doing that.

I'm not sure Santander's mother values him as much as you do

There's also no way Pasquantino was anywhere close to the full package for Luzardo.

[Roll Tide]

6 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

They are all ML ready but Cowser is the better prospect with the higher ceiling. When you say they can have 1 of the 3, you are saying they all have similar value. Thats not the case.

Do Cowser, Holiday, and Kjerstad have the same value? Of course not …. Say they value Norby for his offensive production then maybe you give them a 4th player or a better 4th player. 
 

Honestly, I’d offer Cowser and Santander. By the trade sim (which I’m not a fan of) they would win the trade by 2 plus points. 

[Sports Guy]

I’d really like to add Luzardo but he definitely has durability question marks. He’s not a slam dunk definite great guy to trade for because of that question mark.

 

[ChosenOne21]

34 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

We could probably get Luzardo if we offer Basallo or Mayo. Anyone want to do that?

I think there's a chance we could get him for a package centered around Colton Cowser, but you're absolutely right that the Marlins would demand Mayo or Basallo.

I wouldn't want to make that deal, but I'd strongly consider Mayo or Basallo and sending maybe one of Ortiz/Hall/Povich, but that would be close to my limit. Maybe if they wanted a low minors guy I wasn't a fan of, I'd throw him in, too.

[Safelykept]

1 hour ago, Rbiggs2525 said:

I see a lot of trade proposals with the Marlins taking money on. I think you can only trade one of Hays, Urias, Mountcastle if they will even do that. Also, the Marlins will have a lot of trade proposals. I would first propose Westburg, Norby, Kremer, and a throw in. I believe Mayo, Ortiz, Kremer probably gets it done. I have Mayo as untouchable but it’s the price you pay for controllable pitching. Teams are now giving up prospects to spend less money. Look at the Braves trade yesterday. 

The Kremer undersell again. Ortiz and Mayo should get it done or at least Headline with some secondary pieces added. But Kremer as the throw in , no hes worth more, because now you have to go out and get a back end starter