Hall vs one year deals

[Tony-OH]

44 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

It makes zero sense if you aren’t paying attention to what I’m saying.

Hall has his own issues, which have been clearly discussed. What Hall can be that Wells is a TOR starter. Hall has an upside that Wells can’t approach. The Os don’t need a guy to “get you by”. They need a legit 3rd guy in the playoffs. There is no chance Wells or Irvin is that guy but there is at least some chance Hall is.

Thats why he’s a no brainer to at least start the year. It doesn’t mean you keep Up with the experiment for too long. It just means that his upside should buy him the chance to get starts and see what he can do. 
 

All of his past issues mean nothing to me at this time. Other things are just more important. 5th starters in MLb struggle to pitch 5 innings. They struggle to be good. The Os aren’t going to lose anything by trying him. If it’s not working out, you just move him to the pen. 

There is very little downside to this.  As I have said ad naseum, he is likely a reliever. I don’t disagree with that. I said that 4 years ago but there is upside there to be more and Elias sees that too.

This is more about knowing exactly what Wells and Irvin are and still not really knowing what Hall definitely is. You may say that you know what he definitely is but I dont agree with that thought process. Between injuries and other issues, he hasn’t been in the rhythm of a starter for a while. I would like to see him start the season in that role And just see what happens.

Hall does not have the upside of a TOR because of all the reasons that I've stated. Just because a guy has the stuff to be one does not mean he has the other attributes. You can't just say his past doesn't matter, it does. He's proven to you who he is at this point. Smart organizations that are contending don't play games and put guys where they have the best chance of success. This isn't 2021 anymore. The Orioles are contenders and Hall is a big part of their bullpen.

There is a downside to trying him again as a starter as well. He should be planning and prepared this spring for being a 60 appearance reliever, not as a starter. He should pitch an inning every few days to get in shape and ready, not pitching every five to six days and trying to go multiple innings. 

The ship has sailed on Hall being an effective starter. He's never shown the ability to go deep into games and even as a reliever his pitch counts got high on occasion as well. It took him 371 pitches to go 19.1 innings (19.2 pitches per inning) last year as a reliever at the major league level. That's on par for what's always been. That's way too many for a starter unless you are ok with 4-5 innings starts every five starts. 

 

[Tony-OH]

16 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

I just don’t see how it’s not Wells if they don’t make another addition based on his 1st half the last 2 seasons. I think Wells is the no brainer 

Wells will definitely get a shot at the 5th starter long before Hall, as he should. If the Orioles don't make any additions to the starting rotation, both he and Irvin with get shots at the 5th starter.

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, Tony-OH said:

Hall does not have the upside of a TOR because of all the reasons that I've stated. Just because a guy has the stuff to be one does not mean he has the other attributes. you can't just say his past doesn't matter, it does. He's proven to you who he is at this point. Smart organizations that are contending don't play games and put guys where they have the best chance of success. This isn't 2021 anymore. the Orioles are contenders and Hall is a big part of their bullpen.

I’m not quite as certain as you that Hall couldn’t be a TOR starter, in the style of guys like Blake Snell who don’t give you a high innnings total but keep the score low for 5+ frames.  But, the odds aren’t that good.  

Where @Sports Guyand I diverge more is his dismissive attitude towards Wells.   Wells DID pitch like a TOR starter for a half-season last year.   He has a lot higher ceiling than SG thinks, IMO.   And, he certainly will give you more innings per start than Hall even if Hall is able to start.   

In short, both Wells and Hall have serious injury/stamina questions.   Hall has better stuff and maybe has a higher ceiling, but Wells gets you more innings while he’s healthy and has twice posted a very good ERA as a starter while he was healthy.  

I’d be fine letting them duke it out in spring training, along with Irvin, if Elias hasn’t brought in someone without these question marks.  


 

[CaptainRedbeard]

26 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Hall can provide some dominance in the bullpen this year, hopefully.  If the command continues to look strong out of the bullpen we can revisit the starting rotation possibilities next year when Bautista returns to the pen.   

That is a reasonable approach and would probably be the ideal approach if the Orioles were able to add a SP this offseason. But if Hall has a full season as a RP with an all-red Baseball Savant page like he did in 2023 (including a 6.2% BB rate!!)…relievers who can do that and have 4 quality pitches should be starters until they show they cannot at the MLB level.

I think Blake Snell is more valuable than Josh Hader and will get a bigger contract this offseason. If Josh Hader had 4 pitches there’s a good chance he’d be Blake Snell. I think DL Hall’s top outcome as a RP is Josh Hader and top outcome as a SP is Blake Snell. It’s much, much more likely he’s Hader than Snell but if there’s some chance he is Snell then if you’re the Orioles you might as well try, and then if it doesn’t work let him be Hader. 

It may be better to let him get more run as a RP at the MLB level first but I don’t think the Orioles necessarily have to do that, and if they don’t add a SP this offseason then they shouldn’t wait. 

[RZNJ]

I’m talking myself into Edward Cabrera.  He’s not a #3 starter or better.  He’s more of a #5 with huge upside.  In fact, he’s kind of like D.L. Hall but with more of a track record.  His walk rates in the minors weren’t awful  (4 per 9) and weren’t awful in 2022 with the Marlins (33 in 77 IP).  He’s not going to cost what Luzardo or Cease will but he’s got that type of upside and 5 years of service time.  
 

Cost?   Ortiz + ?

[Sports Guy]

30 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I’m not quite as certain as you that Hall couldn’t be a TOR starter, in the style of guys like Blake Snell who don’t give you a high innnings total but keep the score low for 5+ frames.  But, the odds aren’t that good.  

Where @Sports Guyand I diverge more is his dismissive attitude towards Wells.   Wells DID pitch like a TOR starter for a half-season last year.   He has a lot higher ceiling than SG thinks, IMO.   And, he certainly will give you more innings per start than Hall even if Hall is able to start.   

In short, both Wells and Hall have serious injury/stamina questions.   Hall has better stuff and maybe has a higher ceiling, but Wells gets you more innings while he’s healthy and has twice posted a very good ERA as a starter while he was healthy.  

I’d be fine letting them duke it out in spring training, along with Irvin, if Elias hasn’t brought in someone without these question marks.  


 

When you actually dive into the stats, you can’t intelligent come away with the idea that he is/can be a TOR starter.

Everything about him is pretty middling except he has a good walk rate and a poor HR rate. His ceiling isn’t close to a TOR guy unless something drastically changes for him…a new pitch, more velo, something…but the guy he is right now isn’t close to a true TOR guy.

Edited January 12 by Sports Guy

[CaptainRedbeard]

9 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I’m not quite as certain as you that Hall couldn’t be a TOR starter, in the style of guys like Blake Snell who don’t give you a high innnings total but keep the score low for 5+ frames.  But, the odds aren’t that good.  

Where @Sports Guyand I diverge more is his dismissive attitude towards Wells.   Wells DID pitch like a TOR starter for a half-season last year.   He has a lot higher ceiling than SG thinks, IMO.   And, he certainly will give you more innings per start than Hall even if Hall is able to start.   

In short, both Wells and Hall have serious injury/stamina questions.   Hall has better stuff and maybe has a higher ceiling, but Wells gets you more innings while he’s healthy and has twice posted a very good ERA as a starter while he was healthy.  

I’d be fine letting them duke it out in spring training, along with Irvin, if Elias hasn’t brought in someone without these question marks.  


 

The reason to be skeptical of Wells is not just the stuff, but also that Wells has heavily relied on contact suppression. His xERA as a SP is about 3.90, nearly a full run lower than his FIP as a SP of about 4.75. I don’t really believe he’ll be able to continue replicating that delta even if he’s healthy enough as a SP, and especially if his velo as a SP is eroding.

Wells is very Chris Tillman-y as a SP. Tillman is kinda the best case scenario, more durable version of Wells, and even he didn’t keep it up very long, and completely imploded when he lost a tick on his fastball. 

I like Wells’ profile a lot - 6’8” with a very over the top delivery, great with his fastball up in the zone and a very good changeup. But that works a whole lot better when he’s bringing the 95 mph reliever Wells fastball and not the 90-92 starter Wells fastball.

[wildbillhiccup]

1 minute ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

The reason to be skeptical of Wells is not just the stuff, but also that Wells has heavily relied on contact suppression. His xERA as a SP is about 3.90, nearly a full run lower than his FIP as a SP of about 4.75. I don’t really believe he’ll be able to continue replicating that delta even if he’s healthy enough as a SP, and especially if his velo as a SP is eroding.

Wells is very Chris Tillman-y as a SP. Tillman is kinda the best case scenario, more durable version of Wells, and even he didn’t keep it up very long, and completely imploded when he lost a tick on his fastball. 

I like Wells’ profile a lot - 6’8” with a very over the top delivery, great with his fastball up in the zone and a very good changeup. But that works a whole lot better when he’s bringing the 95 mph reliever Wells fastball and not the 90-92 starter Wells fastball.

Excellent analysis and I feel exactly the same in terms of how he would best be used.

[Sports Guy]

39 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Hall does not have the upside of a TOR because of all the reasons that I've stated. Just because a guy has the stuff to be one does not mean he has the other attributes. You can't just say his past doesn't matter, it does. He's proven to you who he is at this point. Smart organizations that are contending don't play games and put guys where they have the best chance of success. This isn't 2021 anymore. The Orioles are contenders and Hall is a big part of their bullpen.

There is a downside to trying him again as a starter as well. He should be planning and prepared this spring for being a 60 appearance reliever, not as a starter. He should pitch an inning every few days to get in shape and ready, not pitching every five to six days and trying to go multiple innings. 

The ship has sailed on Hall being an effective starter. He's never shown the ability to go deep into games and even as a reliever his pitch counts got high on occasion as well. It took him 371 pitches to go 19.1 innings (19.2 pitches per inning) last year as a reliever at the major league level. That's on par for what's always been. That's way too many for a starter unless you are ok with 4-5 innings starts every five starts. 

 

Tony, part of the problem you have in these evaluations is you are old.  

By that I mean, you still have it in your head that a TOR guy has to throw 200+ innings..has to consistently go deep into games, etc…

That’s just not the case anymore.  The sport of baseball that you scouted and watched for years is just different and the way pitchers are judged is different.

If Hall can be a 4.2-5.2 IP a start guy and give good results, that’s good nowadays…but what can separate him from a like Wells is the other stuff..the Ks, missed bats, etc…he can be a more dynamic pitcher and one that has more value in the postseason.

As Frobby said, a Blake Snell Type guy.  

[Flash- bd]

27 minutes ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

That is a reasonable approach and would probably be the ideal approach if the Orioles were able to add a SP this offseason. But if Hall has a full season as a RP with an all-red Baseball Savant page like he did in 2023 (including a 6.2% BB rate!!)…relievers who can do that and have 4 quality pitches should be starters until they show they cannot at the MLB level.

I think Blake Snell is more valuable than Josh Hader and will get a bigger contract this offseason. If Josh Hader had 4 pitches there’s a good chance he’d be Blake Snell. I think DL Hall’s top outcome as a RP is Josh Hader and top outcome as a SP is Blake Snell. It’s much, much more likely he’s Hader than Snell but if there’s some chance he is Snell then if you’re the Orioles you might as well try, and then if it doesn’t work let him be Hader. 

It may be better to let him get more run as a RP at the MLB level first but I don’t think the Orioles necessarily have to do that, and if they don’t add a SP this offseason then they shouldn’t wait. 

Perfectly said, IMO. 

[CaptainRedbeard]

10 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I’m talking myself into Edward Cabrera.  He’s not a #3 starter or better.  He’s more of a #5 with huge upside.  In fact, he’s kind of like D.L. Hall but with more of a track record.  His walk rates in the minors weren’t awful  (4 per 9) and weren’t awful in 2022 with the Marlins (33 in 77 IP).  He’s not going to cost what Luzardo or Cease will but he’s got that type of upside and 5 years of service time.  
 

Cost?   Ortiz + ?

I’m open to Cabrera for Ortiz+ in theory (with not a whole lot more in the “+”), but I don’t have the background of his injury history. Another similarity with Hall, he’s 25 and just looking at his stats seems like he’s missed time in the past with some regularity. 

If you don’t think there’s any serious red flags with his health then seems like the Orioles and Marlins match up well for a deal to be had that works for both sides. 

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

That is a reasonable approach and would probably be the ideal approach if the Orioles were able to add a SP this offseason. But if Hall has a full season as a RP with an all-red Baseball Savant page like he did in 2023 (including a 6.2% BB rate!!)…relievers who can do that and have 4 quality pitches should be starters until they show they cannot at the MLB level.

I think Blake Snell is more valuable than Josh Hader and will get a bigger contract this offseason. If Josh Hader had 4 pitches there’s a good chance he’d be Blake Snell. I think DL Hall’s top outcome as a RP is Josh Hader and top outcome as a SP is Blake Snell. It’s much, much more likely he’s Hader than Snell but if there’s some chance he is Snell then if you’re the Orioles you might as well try, and then if it doesn’t work let him be Hader. 

It may be better to let him get more run as a RP at the MLB level first but I don’t think the Orioles necessarily have to do that, and if they don’t add a SP this offseason then they shouldn’t wait. 

Pitches per inning is way better to us than walks per 9. 

But it don't matter at this point. All the data is out there and everything that can be said has been said by both sides. 

I've said my piece. Backed it up with stats. You guys have your right to have any opinion that you like. 

 

 

 

[Tony-OH]

50 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Tony, part of the problem you have in these evaluations is you are old.  

By that I mean, you still have it in your head that a TOR guy has to throw 200+ innings..has to consistently go deep into games, etc…

That’s just not the case anymore.  The sport of baseball that you scouted and watched for years is just different and the way pitchers are judged is different.

If Hall can be a 4.2-5.2 IP a start guy and give good results, that’s good nowadays…but what can separate him from a like Wells is the other stuff..the Ks, missed bats, etc…he can be a more dynamic pitcher and one that has more value in the postseason.

As Frobby said, a Blake Snell Type guy.  

Feel free to live in the fantasy land where Hall is a consistent starter who is not blowing up the bullpen because he's at 90 pitches in the 4th inning more times than not. If you think that makes him a TOR, feel free to your opinion. 

At 22-years old Blake Snell pitched 134 innings and put up a combined 1.41 ERA with a 163-53 K-Bb ratio. By the time he was going into his 25-year old season, he had already started 43 games and pitched in 218 innings at the major league level, but not surprisingly, had only won 11 of his 43 games while pitching to a 3.83 ERA. 

In five full professional season, Hall has pitched a grand total of 386.1 innings for a whopping average of 77.3 innings a season.

They are not even close to being the same. 

BTW, Snell actually did pitch 180 innings at 25-years old in his breakout season, but had over 500 minor league innings and the 218 major leaue starter innings when that happened.

Hall is no Blake Snell, but he very well could be another Billy Wagner if they let him be his best role at the major league level.

 

[CaptainRedbeard]

The Giants just gave 4/44 to Jordan Hicks and are going to give him another shot as a SP. He’s had shots at the rotation previously, had all kinds of injuries, had a terrible 11.2 BB/9 last year and doesn’t even have a 3rd pitch he used last year. I don’t know where to find his pitches/inning but I’m sure it’s not good. 

The Giants must think the best case scenario for Hicks is a Blake Snell type, and I think he’s even less likely to become that than Hall, and they are going to at least use the first part of year 1 of a 4/44 deal to find out. The Orioles should be open to doing the same with Hall. 

[Tony-OH]

2 minutes ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

The Giants just gave 4/44 to Jordan Hicks and are going to give him another shot as a SP. He’s had shots at the rotation previously, had all kinds of injuries, had a terrible 11.2 BB/9 last year and doesn’t even have a 3rd pitch he used last year. I don’t know where to find his pitches/inning but I’m sure it’s not good. 

The Giants must think the best case scenario for Hicks is a Blake Snell type, and I think he’s even less likely to become that than Hall, and they are going to at least use the first part of year 1 of a 4/44 deal to find out. The Orioles should be open to doing the same with Hall. 

You and Sports Guy keep saying "Blake Snell" type, but the two years he's been an effective starting pitcher over an entire season, both times he pitched 180 innings and was not a 3 or 4 inning opener. This 3-4 inning opener stuff is garbage because teams can't build effective bullpens to cover the innings load that kind of pitcher creates. 

Feel free to hold out hope for Hall because the Giants, who are paying Hicks like a reliever, supposedly want to give him a shot as a starter. I will say this, if he or the Giants really felt like he was a starter, he wouldn't have signed for $11 mil year for 4 years. He knows he's a reliever.