Realistic Free Agent #3 Pitchers

[HakunaSakata]

1 hour ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Giolito and Stroman are the only two that could be good bets to be better than Wells/Irvin/Hall. I just don’t see that being enough for Elias to beat the table over and ask JA to voluntarily give up $20 million out of his pockets. 

I don’t think Elias wants to risk a $20 million blowup when he wants to get the young guys extended. I don’t think he takes a risk and begs for these guys. I think he holds off for extension money, tries to trade for Burnes or Cease, then uses his pound table moment at the deadline if necessary. 

Giolito has been awful for two straight with no signs of improvement. Why in the world would you consider him a good bet for anything (other than continuing to suck)?

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

Giolito has been awful for two straight with no signs of improvement. Why in the world would you consider him a good bet for anything (other than continuing to suck)?

I have a lot of faith that if the O’s sign a guy, it’s because they think they can improve him.  

Giolito was having a solid year (3.79 ERA) when the White Sox traded him, and then fell apart. Pretty weird and it makes you wonder what was going on.  
 

[HakunaSakata]

12 hours ago, jabba72 said:

Yeah I think I would prefer Giolito over the rest. Sigs computer probably has to like him too. 

I doubt it. Giolito's K% has been trending in the wrong direction for years and his Barrel/PA nearly doubled last season which means he was getting hit REALLY hard. And you can't even blame it on the White Sox since he was even worse on the Dodgers and Guardians. Giolito is cooked and there's no amount sabremetrics that is going to fix him. 

[HakunaSakata]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

I have a lot of faith that if the O’s sign a guy, it’s because they think they can improve him.  

Giolito was having a solid year (3.79 ERA) when the White Sox traded him, and then fell apart. Pretty weird and it makes you wonder what was going on.  
 

Agree with the first line, I just don't think he's fixable. And I think someone is going to pay him based on what he used to be instead of what he actually is. 

[Jim'sKid26]

1 hour ago, Warehouse said:

James Paxton is the most interesting of these options for me, especially at that projected price.  xERA and xFIP both below 4 last year.  His 2024 Steamer ERA projection is the best on the list.  He had an ERA under 3 in the first half of 2023 before falling apart in the second half with an ERA of nearly 7.  His fastball was hit hard but velocity was decent and he has good breaking stuff.  
 

He expects to be a lot better next year another year removed from TJ surgery.  The Wall and having a real third baseman would help.  He comes with a lot of risk but also enough upside where if things break right, he could be a playoff starter.

 

Interesting quotes:

“It’s definitely interesting coming back from it (TJS), the stuff differences [and] trying to figure out my arm again. I feel like the fastball came back, it felt really good, but the breaking stuff took some time. The cutter wasn’t the same pitch it was before Tommy John. I’m still kind of figuring that pitch out. I got to a place where it was good enough. I could use it, it just wasn’t the same as it was.”

“I used to throw it harder. It was a shorter, harder slider, basically, and now it’s not quite as hard. I used to throw it 88–91 [mph] and now it’s like 85–87. It still has decent movement to it, but again, it’s just not quite the same pitch that it was before I got hurt. Maybe that’s something that will come back in year two. People say that your stuff isn’t really 100% back until the year after your first year back from Tommy John.”

He started 19 games and threw 96 IP for Boston in 2023. He had 9.5 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9 with an average FB velo of 95.3 mph. I think a 1/$10mm contract might be worth the risk.

[Just Regular]

Frankie Montas is the other "once great" name basically similar to James Paxton as a risk-reward profile.       If we buy in this sector at all, I am rooting for it to be an upside play.     

 

[OriolesMagic83]

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

I’d pay the projected 2/$36 mm for him.  I’m skeptical he can be signed for that.   

Why can't the O's take a page from the LA Dodgers playbook and their own playbook and give him that or a little more but with deferrments.  That way JA can still get his money (his #1 goal) and the O's and fans can get the players they need. 

[Frobby]

Just now, OriolesMagic83 said:

Why can't the O's take a page from the LA Dodgers playbook and their own playbook and give him that or a little more but with deferrments.  That way JA can still get his money (his #1 goal) and the O's and fans can get the players they need. 

In the Orioles’ situation, deferments are pretty stupid.  Their payroll is very low now, so why defer payments to a time when payroll may be higher?   They’re better off paying now.  And to be clear, 2/$36 mm is totally affordable for this team.  

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

Why can't the O's take a page from the LA Dodgers playbook and their own playbook and give him that or a little more but with deferrments.  That way JA can still get his money (his #1 goal) and the O's and fans can get the players they need. 

The O's have a history of their own with deferments.

The first I remember was Bonilla.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Frobby said:

In the Orioles’ situation, deferments are pretty stupid.  Their payroll is very low now, so why defer payments to a time when payroll may be higher?   They’re better off paying now.  And to be clear, 2/$36 mm is totally affordable for this team.  

If you can put off paying for something without interest it's pretty much always in your best interest to do so.

[OriolesMagic83]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

In the Orioles’ situation, deferments are pretty stupid.  Their payroll is very low now, so why defer payments to a time when payroll may be higher?   They’re better off paying now.  And to be clear, 2/$36 mm is totally affordable for this team.  

It's all about padding JA's pockets.  I can't see any chance that JA is owner say 5 years from now.  When PA dies, the team is sold, imo.  This is about convincing JA to spend money (it makes no sense with a "normal" team owner.

[ScGO's]

Looks like Wacha went for 2 Year $32 Mil. Still shocked by Flaherty deal of 1 Year $14 Mil. I thought he would get at least $10 Mil, but the Tigers probably had to do an overpay to bring him to a less attractive destination. Was probably getting closer to 1 year 10 mil offers from more attractive destinations.

Do they all start to drop faster now, like dominoes?

[Frobby]

41 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

If you can put off paying for something without interest it's pretty much always in your best interest to do so.

Sure, if the price doesn’t factor that in already.  For example, nobody’s going to tell me that the Dodgers wouid have paid Ohtani anything close to $700 mm without the deferrals.  

[Frobby]

14 minutes ago, ScGO's said:

Looks like Wacha went for 2 Year $32 Mil. Still shocked by Flaherty deal of 1 Year $14 Mil. I thought he would get at least $10 Mil, but the Tigers probably had to do an overpay to bring him to a less attractive destination. Was probably getting closer to 1 year 10 mil offers from more attractive destinations.

Do they all start to drop faster now, like dominoes?

I think a lot will happen between now and the end of next week. 

[TommyPickles]

Seems like a lot of SP have already signed for mid-December...

Nola, Ohtani, Gray, Wacha, Maeda, Lugo, Flaherty, EdRod, Lynn, Gibson, Mahle