Lazardo is my choice

[Roll Tide]

36 minutes ago, jamalshw said:

I'm not disputing that he's a very good player though I think it's a stretch to expect the same level of "improvement" in 2024 that he showed from 2022 to 2023. I also put "improvement" in quotes given the difference in the offensive environment in those two years and given his OPS+ went from 120 to 121...basically staying the same. He's a hitter that's 20% above league average which is valuable, yes. But again, I'm not disputing that he's a good player. 

I'm disputing that Santander will have any real impact on the attendance as an "exciting draw." Producing as a star player (and my definition of that and yours may vary) and being a star player are different things. I don't view him as any more "exciting" than Jorge Soler. Both great hitters and Santander provides a bit more given the defensive aspect, but neither are going to impact attendance singularly to the point of being consequential. Given the Marlins' poor attendance last year, I can't really say Soler was a draw. And if I'm a Marlins' fan and someone comes up to me and asks how many games I'm attending, the number doesn't change based on whether Santander is on the team. 

Given his one year of controllability and the fact the Marlins are competing, but more fringe contenders compared to the Orioles, I don't know that he has that much trade value to the Marlins given it's just for 2024. 

The point you originally questioned was my saying Santander has more value to the Orioles than the Marlins. I stand by that. He's been a middle of the order hitter for us and he will be again in 2024. The Orioles are coming off a 101 win season and expect to compete for the division and the World Series again in 2024. So his production in 2024 is hugely important. 

The Marlins, on the other hand, won 84 games despite having a negative run differential. They get a full season of Bell and Burger to help, but lost Soler. They're win projections (depending on the site of course) are generally upper 70s to 80. They're a contender in that they have a shot at the postseason, but few would consider them a legit World Series contender. Things can change, sure, and hope springs eternal, but simply based on 2023 and team direction, the Orioles should be far more focused on 2024 whereas the Marlins should have a longer term view. Consequentially, any 2024 production is more important to the Orioles than the Marlins. 

Obviously you disagree with my assessment and that's okay. Maybe you are right. Maybe the Marlins really covet a one-year rental for 3-years of Luzardo. But I don't see it personally and if I were in the Marlins' shoes, I wouldn't be all that excited about Santander unless he was the 3rd or 4th piece. And as an Orioles fan, if I'm giving up the offensive production of Santander for 2024, I hope he's the headliner in the deal and not joined by several top prospects as well. 

1) Are you Latino? 
 

2) Santader would need to be extended to have more than marginal value. But maybe he’s the 3rd & 4th piece of a deal.

3) Guess I’m not understanding… his OPS went from .773 to .797. OPS adjusts for ballpark. So I think it’s better to use actual OPS and he consider the ball park. 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/santaan02.shtml
 

4) there would be uptick with the park differential from 28th to 21st.

BTW, his OPS went up 53 points the year before. So you don’t think 20 points is reasonable? Ok agree to disagree 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/tonyblengino/2022/10/14/these-mlb-ballparks-were-kindest-to-hitters-in-2022/?sh=e515daa138e4
 

 

 

Edited January 19 by Roll Tide

[Guest]

I don’t get including Santander because he has big value to us as a switch hitter right now with all of our young outfielders unproven, and not a ton of trade value due to his contract.

But I think a package centered around Basallo (or Cowser, if they like him more), Povich, Ortiz/Norby, and Stowers. I think that gives them some good prospect value and some guys they can slot in right away. Maybe Mountcastle is a guy they like post-Soler.

I don’t know what it would actually take but this is the one guy I would be willing to move a guy like Basallo for.

[Frobby]

On 1/19/2024 at 8:26 AM, Warehouse said:

I don’t think Santander is a premium trade chip by any means, but he does have surplus value.  

Teoscar Hernandez just signed a 1 year deal for ~$20 million PV.  Hernandez was good for 1.8 fWAR in 2023 and Steamer projects him for 1.9 in 2024.  Santander was good for 2.6 fWAR in 2023 and is projected for 2.1 in 2024.

Santander is more mediocre than poor in right field and has shown that he can also effectively play first base.  He provides flexibility as a switch hitter strong from both sides of the plate.  He is a top notch clubhouse presence and brings 30+ home run potential. He’s two years younger than Hernandez.

Just look at who Hernandez was traded for last winter: Erik Swanson and Adam Macko.  That’s a reasonable approximation of what Santander would bring back in a trade.  

[ChosenOne21]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Just look at who Hernandez was traded for last winter: Erik Swanson and Adam Macko.  That’s a reasonable approximation of what Santander would bring back in a trade.  

A damn good reliever and a SP lottery ticket? Sign me up.

But you're right that it isn't an absolute ton and no one is looking at Santander and salivating about trading their top prospects for him.

[Roll Tide]

52 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Just look at who Hernandez was traded for last winter: Erik Swanson and Adam Macko.  That’s a reasonable approximation of what Santander would bring back in a trade.  

 

47 minutes ago, ChosenOne21 said:

A damn good reliever and a SP lottery ticket? Sign me up.

But you're right that it isn't an absolute ton and no one is looking at Santander and salivating about trading their top prospects for him.

He could be a piece of a deal going to the Padres or Mariners who both want MLB bats. 

[Sports Guy]

59 minutes ago, ChosenOne21 said:

A damn good reliever and a SP lottery ticket? Sign me up.

But you're right that it isn't an absolute ton and no one is looking at Santander and salivating about trading their top prospects for him.

Yep…while it’s obvious we need another starter, this team also needs another very good, high leverage reliever. Kimbrel was just one part of that. I would gladly trade Santander for that.

[ScGO's]

With Santander having one year left, I think he has more value to this team's line up for next season as most of our bats are still young, and he's the best and most consistent of our veteran hitters. He has a little more versatility with RF, DH, 1B now on his resume; he's a switch hitter. He just fits in this 2024 line up.

If he has another 3+ WAR season, I believe Santander could get a qualifying offer. At that point we take the draft pick or he resigns for 1 year, which I am okay with for a 2025 roster.

I think the most expendable of our veterans are Hays and Mountcastle. They are the most easily replaced in the line up. Yet they won't bring back a ton in a trade; however, they would be good complimentary pieces in a trade for a pitcher.

Hays, Mountcastle, Westburg, McDermott, Ortiz  for Luzardo and a young projectable pitching prospect in the lower minors.

[wildbillhiccup]

1 hour ago, Roll Tide said:

 

He could be a piece of a deal going to the Padres or Mariners who both want MLB bats. 

Why do you keep posting about the Mariners and suggesting that they're a realistic trade partner? They've already made their offseason moves and they're not going to trade another SP. I've already pointed this out to you before, but you keep bringing them up. Just stop. 

1) They've already traded a SP (Ray).

2) They've already signed and/or traded for Garver (DH), Haniger (RF), Raley (LF). 

 

[wildbillhiccup]

On 1/19/2024 at 2:24 PM, Roll Tide said:

1) Are you Latino? 
 

2) Santader would need to be extended to have more than marginal value. But maybe he’s the 3rd & 4th piece of a deal.

3) Guess I’m not understanding… his OPS went from .773 to .797. OPS adjusts for ballpark. So I think it’s better to use actual OPS and he consider the ball park. 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/santaan02.shtml
 

4) there would be uptick with the park differential from 28th to 21st.

BTW, his OPS went up 53 points the year before. So you don’t think 20 points is reasonable? Ok agree to disagree 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/tonyblengino/2022/10/14/these-mlb-ballparks-were-kindest-to-hitters-in-2022/?sh=e515daa138e4
 

 

 

No one is going to view Santander as a long term piece and look to extend him, if they trade for him. No one. And what does the race of the other poster have to do with anything?!?! Are you moonlighting for the US Census Bureau now? And you can't just reply to every comment with "agree to disagree" when everyone roasts you for posting something absolutely ridiculous (again). Maybe post less and put more thought into what you do post then you won't have to agree to disagree so often. 

[Frobby]

18 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

No one is going to view Santander as a long term piece and look to extend him, if they trade for him.

What makes you so sure about that?  Guys like Santander get 3-4 year contracts pretty regularly.  Friggin’ Nick Castellanos is on a 5/$100 mm deal.  

[wildbillhiccup]

17 minutes ago, Frobby said:

What makes you so sure about that?  Guys like Santander get 3-4 year contracts pretty regularly.  Friggin’ Nick Castellanos is on a 5/$100 mm deal.  

You've mentioned T. Hernandez as a trade comp before. Hernandez was only able to get a one year deal. Renfroe was only able to get a two year deal. And Castellanos was coming off a season where he posted a very respectable .362 OBP before he signed that big contract with Philly. Santander's career OBP is .307. 29 year old players with Santander's player profile aren't viewed as building blocks.

[Frobby]

38 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

You've mentioned T. Hernandez as a trade comp before. Hernandez was only able to get a one year deal. Renfroe was only able to get a two year deal. And Castellanos was coming off a season where he posted a very respectable .362 OBP before he signed that big contract with Philly. Santander's career OBP is .307. 29 year old players with Santander's player profile aren't viewed as building blocks.

I think Hernandez was a good comp to Santander when considering their trade value with one year of service remaining.  He kind of screwed the pooch in his walk year, putting up a .741 OPS/106 OPS+.   Even so, he’s getting $20 mm next year.  I just think it’s tough to say with confidence that no team would consider extending Santander right now.  Depending on how many years and dollars we’re talking about, I think some teams might.   Put it this way: if Santander has a 120 OPS+ season this year, I’d expect him to attract at least 3/$50 mm as a free agent, and possibly more.  
 

[Roll Tide]

1 hour ago, wildbillhiccup said:

No one is going to view Santander as a long term piece and look to extend him, if they trade for him. No one. And what does the race of the other poster have to do with anything?!?! Are you moonlighting for the US Census Bureau now? And you can't just reply to every comment with "agree to disagree" when everyone roasts you for posting something absolutely ridiculous (again). Maybe post less and put more thought into what you do post then you won't have to agree to disagree so often. 

You  don’t think Santander will get a 3 year deal after this season? I’ll take that action. 

Latino players are very popular in Miami. Because of their high percentage of Latino residents.

Quit being a smart ass. You don’t need to ask stupid condescending questions to make a point. 
 

Also, Limited posting member, quit being cheap and spend the $30 bucks it cost to be a member.

Moving forward I won’t even take you seriously until you do that. 

Edited January 21 by Roll Tide

[wildbillhiccup]

7 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I think Hernandez was a good comp to Santander when considering their trade value with one year of service remaining.  He kind of screwed the pooch in his walk year, putting up a .741 OPS/106 OPS+.   Even so, he’s getting $20 mm next year.  I just think it’s tough to say with confidence that no team would consider extending Santander right now.  Depending on how many years and dollars we’re talking about, I think some teams might.   Put it this way: if Santander has a 120 OPS+ season this year, I’d expect him to attract at least 3/$50 mm as a free agent, and possibly more.  
 

Sure, if he posts another good season he might get a multi-year deal. Anything's possible, but I still can't imagine him being valued significantly more than someone like Renfroe next offseason.  What I really took issue with was the other poster implying that Santander is such a hot commodity that teams would trade for him now and try and lock him up long term like he's the second coming of Juan Soto or something. And then also claiming that his ethnicity would be a major selling point to certain teams. Those are very lazy arguments that aren't rooted in any semblance of reality. 

I think the reality of then Santander situation is (and someone else already made this point) that he's probably significantly more valuable to us than he is as a trade piece to any other team. 

[Roll Tide]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

What makes you so sure about that?  Guys like Santander get 3-4 year contracts pretty regularly.  Friggin’ Nick Castellanos is on a 5/$100 mm deal.  

He’s just trolling Frobby. He’s done it lately on pretty much every post I make.