Spring Training Roster Locks, Near Locks, and Bubble (Position Players)

[interloper]

21 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

It does make some sense if he's not, but honestly, what scenario would have him playing 2B for the Orioles this year? 

Westburg, Urias, Holliday are all in front of him and Mayo is too, with Westburg moving to 2B in that scenario. 

Plus, the Orioles clearly do not like his defense there.

And he's not even listed as an infielder on the Tides roster anymore; they have him under outfielder. He's pretty much boned in this organization because they don't view him as a 2B, he doesn't have power, he's not particularly fast, and he can't play SS or CF. Not sure what he's doing here still if the profile they're saddling him with is a COF without power or plus defense. 

His best role for the bat profile is 2B and I have a hard time imagining he's THAT bad a defender at 2B to not be able to get ABs on a rebuilding team somewhere.

Edited February 7 by interloper

[Tony-OH]

As for the OP, I think Mateo is a lock without injury. He's the utility player that can play SS. The Orioles didn't resign him to cut him. Even if Holliday manages to win a job, I see Mateo making the team. The fact that Mateo can back up CF as well, also provides value. 

 

[Tony-OH]

4 minutes ago, interloper said:

And he's not even listed as an infielder on the Tides roster anymore; they have him under outfielder. He's pretty much boned in this organization because they don't view him as a 2B, he doesn't have power, he's not particularly fast, and he can't play SS or CF. Not sure what he's doing here still if the profile they're saddling him with is a COF without power or plus defense. 

His best role for the bat profile is 2B and I have a hard time imagining he's THAT bad a defender at 2B to not be able to get ABs on a rebuilding team somewhere.

True, but just because he's listed as an outfielder doesn't mean he won't see some 2B time. I do think his future with the Orioles is not bright though. His lack of speed now, from either injuries or whatever has really hurt his profile. 

Right now he's basically AAA depth in this organization. 

[Tony-OH]

14 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Agreed.  Let's say "dislike", and I'm not the President of the Nevin fan club.  However, as of right now he could be that Danny Valencia/Steve Pearce type role player for us.  We like to play the L/R matchups.  Nevin helps with that.  There's no need for a prospect to be on the bench in a 20% usage rate or less.  Nevin has a track record of hitting lefties well,

MLB - .798 OPS career in 113 PA

AAA 23' - .858 OPS in 76 PA

AAA 22' - .811 OPS in 62 PA

I don't think he's anywhere near the hitter that Pearce and Valencia (at one time) were though. Nevin is a slow-twitch guy who's main skill to not chase and have good PAs. It's kind of the right-handed version of Vavra at the plate. He can hit lefties a little, but he still doesn't have a lot of pop against them. I mean, if he brought that skill, he might have a potential place. Now could be a potential platoon player with O'Hearn if something happened to Mountcastle, sure, I guess. But both Santander, McCann and even Adley (although it's bee awhile) can play 1B as well, and I'd rather have all three in the lineup over Nevin against lefties.

[Aristotelian]

12 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

As for the OP, I think Mateo is a lock without injury. He's the utility player that can play SS. The Orioles didn't resign him to cut him. Even if Holliday manages to win a job, I see Mateo making the team. The fact that Mateo can back up CF as well, also provides value. 

 

I agree, after Elias's recent comments it seems they have a role in mind for Mateo and that is a great sign for him. I had him as near lock only because so many folks here have been down on him.

So that just leaves Kjerstad vs Cowser for one spot, and then the last utility spot.

And now that Vavra didn't even make spring training he is obviously off the list. So if they are going lefty, it comes down to Hilliard and the Cowser/Kjerstad loser. Seems like Hilliard should be the bench guy and whoever starts in AAA can be the next man up for the inevitable outfielder injury.

[Just Regular]

9 minutes ago, interloper said:

And he's not even listed as an infielder on the Tides roster anymore; they have him under outfielder. He's pretty much boned in this organization because they don't view him as a 2B, he doesn't have power, he's not particularly fast, and he can't play SS or CF. Not sure what he's doing here still if the profile they're saddling him with is a COF without power or plus defense. 

His best role for the bat profile is 2B and I have a hard time imagining he's THAT bad a defender at 2B to not be able to get ABs on a rebuilding team somewhere.

One of my favorite things players sometimes share is a guy they admired or patterned their game after.     

Anthony Santander says Victor Martinez and it tracks because they are both switch hitters, among Venezuela's 100 best MLB Bats ever, and Anthony got to watch Victor when he was a kid.     Also makes him I think a helpful teammate for an American version of Better Victor Martinez by virtue of being actually good at catching and hugging.

Connor Norby says Whit Merrifield, and the above is probably some of the kind of stuff that was said about him when he hit a lot in the Minors in his early-mid 20's, and waited until Age 27 for a MLB opportunity.

If Mayo flops 3B to take Westburg out of "MLB's Best 10th Man" and in to a 600 PA role, I kind of hope Connor Norby gets a clean shot at that gig.

[RVAOsFan]

2 hours ago, Just Regular said:

One of my favorite things players sometimes share is a guy they admired or patterned their game after.     

Anthony Santander says Victor Martinez and it tracks because they are both switch hitters, among Venezuela's 100 best MLB Bats ever, and Anthony got to watch Victor when he was a kid.     Also makes him I think a helpful teammate for an American version of Better Victor Martinez by virtue of being actually good at catching and hugging.

Connor Norby says Whit Merrifield, and the above is probably some of the kind of stuff that was said about him when he hit a lot in the Minors in his early-mid 20's, and waited until Age 27 for a MLB opportunity.

If Mayo flops 3B to take Westburg out of "MLB's Best 10th Man" and in to a 600 PA role, I kind of hope Connor Norby gets a clean shot at that gig.

I wonder if Norby can win the 2B job to start the season if he has a great spring.  Give the team an excuse to hold Holliday back long enough to get that extra year of control out of him.  I am not going to complain if Jackson is our starting 2B on opening day but if he isn't I hope Norby gets a chance, I think he might stick.

[ThisIsBirdland]

Just now, RVAOsFan said:

I wonder if Norby can win the 2B job to start the season if he has a great spring.  Give the team an excuse to hold Holliday back long enough to get that extra year of control out of him.  I am not going to complain if Jackson is our starting 2B on opening day but if he isn't I hope Norby gets a chance, I think he might stick.

Uphill battle given that he's a RHB I think. Elias all but said the path for Holliday to the majors out of camp was if he could provide LH at bats at 2nd base to replace Frazier.

[RVAOsFan]

1 minute ago, ThisIsBirdland said:

Uphill battle given that he's a RHB I think. Elias all but said the path for Holliday to the majors out of camp was if he could provide LH at bats at 2nd base to replace Frazier.

A good point for sure, but I think this team will have more LH options to put in the lineup than we have in the past.  O'Hearn, Heston, Cowser, just a thought. 

[Frobby]

3 hours ago, Matt Bennett said:

I'm not trying to pick on you, but I do think this style of thinking is a remnant of the rebuilding phase. We just won 101 games. The expectations are a repeat division title and a run at the World Series. The Orioles are the priority. 

We can twist ourselves into knots trying to come up with all the different lineup configurations and Opening Day roster combinations. I do agree that O'Hearn, Cowser, AND Kjerstad on the same roster is redundant and 1 shouldn't make it. But Hays, Santander, and Mullins aren't going anywhere. Cowser and Kjerstad's at-bats in 2024 will come as "4th outfielder", barring injury. That's fine. But taking the OP's 10 locks, and add...IDK Mateo, Cowser, and McKenna or Mateo, Kjerstad, and McKenna. There's plenty of at-bats for Kjerstad/Cowser to have. 

If they are as good as prospect evaluators say they are/can be, it is beneficial to the big league club for them to play every other day for the Orioles. It's beneficial to them as well. The team would prefer it and the player would prefer it too. 

It’s interesting to look back at how the 1969-72 juggernaut allocated its OF time.

Robinson 643, 553, 545

Blair 685, 548, 555

Buford 663, 629, 549

Rettenmund 226, 385, 589

Took three years for Rettenmund to earn a full spot in the rotation, but he gradually worked his way in there.  

[Orioles0615]

21 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

My OD roster prediction ,

Burnes, Bradish, Grayson, Means, Kremer

Coloumbe, Perez, Irvin

Kimbrel, Cano, Wells, Webb, Baumann

1. Adley S C

2. Gunnar L SS

3. Santa S RF

4. Mountcastle 1B R

5. O’Hearn L DH

6. Hays R LF

7. Mullins L CF

8. Westburg R 2B

9. Urias R 3B

McCann, Mateo, McKenna, Nevin

ST Battles

- Baumann stays over Tate initially just because of options. I know. I know. Life isn’t fair. Tate will be ok and pitch a lot for us. As will Baker.

- McKenna beats out Hilliard. With all of our lefties, McKenna is needed. McKenna is a better CF as well.  Hilliard is redundant. Maybe Hilliard clears waivers. 

- Nevin beats out Hilliard because Hilliard is redundant. Nevin is RH, and can play all the corners. Nevin beats out the prospects because why have them in a part time role?  They need to be playing everyday. 

- Wildcard… we could trade O’Hearn and open up a spot for Cowser or Kjerstad. Elias made the comment about not having all the prospects learn at once. Well this is a way to ease one in. I favor Cowser because of defense. Remember… just like Gunnar last year, we’re not worried about what Cowser/Kjerstad is on OD, we’re worried about what they could be come September. 

"9. Urias R 3B

McCann, Mateo, McKenna, Nevin"

 

Please No no no and no

[Orioles0615]

Hoping for something like 

 

VS RHP

Mullins CF

Adley C

Gunnar SS

Santander  RF

Ohearn 1B 

Kjerstad DH

Westburg 3B

Cowser LF

Holliday 2B

VS LHP

Adley C

Gunnar SS

Santander RF

Mountcastle 1B

Hays LF

Westburg 3B

Mullins CF 

Urias DH

Holliday 2B

 

McCann, Mateo, O'hearn, Urias 

[sportsfan8703]

13 minutes ago, Orioles0615 said:

"9. Urias R 3B

McCann, Mateo, McKenna, Nevin"

 

Please No no no and no

Urias had a pretty bad knee injury in September of 2022.  I think he dodged surgery but never was still shut down for a couple of months.  That could explain the down year.  At least defensively.  

[Aristotelian]

19 minutes ago, ThisIsBirdland said:

Uphill battle given that he's a RHB I think. Elias all but said the path for Holliday to the majors out of camp was if he could provide LH at bats at 2nd base to replace Frazier.

Elias didn't come anywhere close to saying that Holliday will make the team out of camp. Actual quote:

Jordan Westburg is up and established, and Adam Frazier is on the Royals. Looking at that I see some additional playing time for a lefthanded hitter at 2B so to put Jackson in the best position possible to make the team we're going to give him a lot of 2B action in spring training, to get a good hard look at that and to prepare him for eventual work at 2B, which, I think if he's on the team at any point in 2024, second base is going to be a big part of the equation. But he will also play SS too and Gunnar's not gonna play there 7 days a week... so we want to keep Jackson warm at SS too. 

"Eventual work" and "at any point" do not signal to me that making the team is guaranteed, or even more likely than not. The quote is completely consistent with Holliday spending at least a couple weeks and up to 1-2 months in AAA, so it actually does not really change my best guess at the organization's plan.

[ThisIsBirdland]

6 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Elias didn't come anywhere close to saying that Holliday will make the team out of camp. Actual quote:

Jordan Westburg is up and established, and Adam Frazier is on the Royals. Looking at that I see some additional playing time for a lefthanded hitter at 2B so to put Jackson in the best position possible to make the team we're going to give him a lot of 2B action in spring training, to get a good hard look at that and to prepare him for eventual work at 2B, which, I think if he's on the team at any point in 2024, second base is going to be a big part of the equation. But he will also play SS too and Gunnar's not gonna play there 7 days a week... so we want to keep Jackson warm at SS too. 

"Eventual work" and "at any point" do not signal to me that making the team is guaranteed, or even more likely than not. The quote is completely consistent with Holliday spending at least a couple weeks and up to 1-2 months in AAA, so it actually does not really change my best guess at the organization's plan.

And my comment wasn't meant to suggest that Holliday was a lock to make the team. It was meant to say they're looking for someone to provide LH at bats from 2nd base and there's an opportunity for Holliday there.

Maybe they decide they're good with Gunnar as the only LH INF on the team, but I do happen to think they're hoping Holliday earns the spot in ST. But just like Grayson last year, he may not.