Moving forward, what are your expectations for payroll in comparison to the rest of the league?

[24fps]

I'm pretty certain that the new ownership group calculated what the Orioles' market revenue potential is six different ways before making the first bid, and the number came up a lot closer to Houston than Tampa Bay.  That's the comp I'm looking for a few years down the road.

[sportsfan8703]

I don't have an arbitrary number in mind.  I just want us to be able to make a trade like the Burnes trade each year or a FA similar in salary.  Like next offseason we might be in the running for Mitch Keller.  

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, Bemorewins said:

The reality is that we are going to have to spend much more than we have in order to sustain winning.

I don’t think that’s reality at all.  Tampa wins year after year without spending.  

Don’t get me wrong, I’m not advocating we go “full Tampa.”  But it’s just not true that you have to spend to win.  It helps, if you spend intelligently.  Plenty of teams spend and just throw their money away on players who are in the decline phase of their career, or will be for much of their contract.  I don’t want to see that and it’s not because I want the owners to make money, it’s because I don’t want the team to get locked into lots of long-term commitments that hurt the team rather than help it.  
 

[Bemorewins]

6 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I don’t think that’s reality at all.  Tampa wins year after year without spending.  

Don’t get me wrong, I’m not advocating we go “full Tampa.”  But it’s just not true that you have to spend to win.  It helps, if you spend intelligently.  Plenty of teams spend and just throw their money away on players who are in the decline phase of their career, or will be for much of their contract.  I don’t want to see that and it’s not because I want the owners to make money, it’s because I don’t want the team to get locked into lots of long-term commitments that hurt the team rather than help it.  
 

We can have a team with a winning record. Tampa is proof of that. But what's the difference between Tampa and HOU? IMO it's that HOU does what it takes and spends the money necessary to get over the hump where Tampa is content just being in the mix (good but never good enough).

We have the intelligence part already covered with Elias and Sig. What we need is the necessary spending to win a championship and then sustain excellence. 

Last point, I recognize that there are some teams where spending did work well for them (NYM, SD). But TEX spent a lot too and they are world champions.

[sportsfan8703]

44 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

We can have a team with a winning record. Tampa is proof of that. But what's the difference between Tampa and HOU? IMO it's that HOU does what it takes and spends the money necessary to get over the hump where Tampa is content just being in the mix (good but never good enough).

We have the intelligence part already covered with Elias and Sig. What we need is the necessary spending to win a championship and then sustain excellence. 

Last point, I recognize that there are some teams where spending did work well for them (NYM, SD). But TEX spent a lot too and they are world champions.

Texas spent.  Doubled down and then tripled down.  Not too many teams can fire that third bullet.  It was actually their red hot lineup that really carried them.  

I do think if we had Rubenstein at the beginning of the offseason then we might have been in on EdRod.  So we'll be able to spend, just on that 2nd/3rd tier of spending teams.  

[Frobby]

48 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

We can have a team with a winning record. Tampa is proof of that. But what's the difference between Tampa and HOU? IMO it's that HOU does what it takes and spends the money necessary to get over the hump where Tampa is content just being in the mix (good but never good enough).

We have the intelligence part already covered with Elias and Sig. What we need is the necessary spending to win a championship and then sustain excellence. 

Last point, I recognize that there are some teams where spending did work well for them (NYM, SD). But TEX spent a lot too and they are world champions.

Well, like I said, I’m not advocating full Tampa.  I don’t think we can match Houston’s spending because they have a much bigger revenue base than we do, but we can do the Baltimore version of that.  They do spend intelligently most of the time. 

[SemperFi]

4 hours ago, Frobby said:

To me, there’s only one market ranking that really matters — the one MLB uses to determine which teams get extra draft picks, draft pool allotments and international pool allotments, called Revenue Sharing Market Score.  The Os rank 23rd there.   

 

Boy does Oakland get hosed-costed as the SF market but really gets little or no value from over the bridges.

[Can_of_corn]

I'm expecting it to average out to around 20th.

[wildcard]

In the near term I expect the payroll to go down.

Urias (2M) be traded for a prospect when Holliday is ready.

O'Hearn to be traded for a prospect when Kjerstad or Mayo are  ready.

Next off season. Santander (11.7M) to be a  FA for a draft choice  and Hays(6.3) to be traded for a prospect.  Cowser and Kjerstad replacing them.

The O's probably need to add a veteran starter when Means (3M) for nothing and Burnes (15M) leaves for a draft choice  through FA.  Unless  Means is extended.   Johnson, McDermott and/or Povich may fill a starter spot.

Arbitration eligible players salaries will continue to rise.

 

Edited February 7 by wildcard

[Frobby]

For what it's worth, here's a chart I made summarizing the estimated cost of our top 10 young players from 2024-27:

Player	2024	2025	2026	2027
Rutschman	1	7	13	19
Henderson	1	1	7	13
Bradish	1	4	7	13
Rodriguez	1	1	4	7
Kremer	1	3	6	9
Kjerstad	1	1	1	3
Cowser	1	1	1	3
Bautista	1	1	5	11
Holliday	1	1	1	7
Westburg	1	1	1	4
10 Player Total	10	21	46	89

Assumptions:

1.  Adley, Gunnar and Holliday all stay on a star track.  Holliday is on the OD roster and therefore Arb eligible in 2027.  The salaries I used for all three track what Bobby Witt Jr. will be getting in what would have been his Arb years.

2.  Bradish and Rodriguez stay on a star track.  Bradish (1.160 years of service now) is a Super 2 in 2025.   Rodrguez (0.129 years of service) is a Super 2 in 2026 (he's a slightly better than 50% bet to be a Super 2 based on past cutoff dates)

3.  Kremer is about a league average starter and stays healthy.

4.  Kjerstad and Cowser earn a full year of service by the end of 2024 and eventually become Hays/Mullins level players.

5.  Bautista returns healthy in 2025 and resumes his position as a top closer.

6.  Westburg retains a starting job and is league average or a little better.

As you can see, this 10 player core will be getting a lot more expensive as the years go by.  So, whatever the team's total payroll limit will be, you need to build in a lot of flexibility to pay these guys.  

[Roll Tide]

6 hours ago, Greg Pappas said:

What are your expectations for our payroll, whether this season or in the years to come?

The current MLB payroll list courtesy of Spotrac.

1    New York Yankees  $304,691,666
2    New York Mets   $295,351,859
3    Houston Astros   $253,473,141
4    Philadelphia Phillies   $238,812,617
5    Atlanta Braves  $232,575,000
6    Texas Rangers   $225,590,000
7    Los Angeles Dodgers   $214,131,666
8    Toronto Blue Jays   $212,191,784
9    Chicago Cubs   $204,920,000
10    Boston Red Sox   $180,023,181
11    St. Louis Cardinals   $175,011,667
12    Los Angeles Angels   $173,858,094
LEAGUE AVERAGE =  $160,343,266                          
13    San Diego Padres   $156,815,453
14    Arizona Diamondbacks    $147,751,716
15    Colorado Rockies    $147,555,000
16    San Francisco Giants   $144,343,333
17    Seattle Mariners    $143,408,333
18    Chicago White Sox   $141,333,333
19    Minnesota Twins    $128,471,190
20    Kansas City Royals     $121,654,570
21    Detroit Tigers    $113,603,333
22    Washington Nationals   $110,191,429
23    Milwaukee Brewers    $106,694,960
24    Cleveland Guardians    $102,913,928
25    Cincinnati Reds    $100,868,333
26    Baltimore Orioles    $100,598,668

Hoping for league average 

[foxfield]

4 hours ago, Bemorewins said:

Where are you getting your numbers for market analysis? Is it by city/metropolitan population size? By the numbers that another poster provided in this thread (that comes from MLB), I don't think those positions can be justified?

SD spends way more than us, TOR is a much larger city than BOS, HOU is not a top payroll team but there are in a top 5 city in terms of population size. And that applies to ARI (PHX) also.

The reality is that we are going to have to spend much more than we have in order to sustain winning.

I personally want the owners to spend. What they don't spend goes into their pockets. I have said this a million times before, but I have no interest in cheering for billionaires to make more millions.

There is just so much wrong here. It’s like a hand full of facts accidentally but grossly misinterpreted. 
 

I agree that financially the Orioles are going to have more flexibility.  How much, if any, the new owners are willing to subsidize in any year remains to be seen. But no team, even the Mets and Padres to quote your earlier examples are likely to run at massive deficits for more than a couple of years. 
 

Elias likely settles in at around 150-160 bases on today’s dollars. How that gets done could include some extensions. Or it could include some larger free agent deals.  It would be a gross exaggeration to expect the Orioles to spend at the level of the Yankees or the Dodgers. 
 

I do think a key component is that new ownership has flat out said it wants to bring a title to Baltimore. That is going to take more than the bare bones minimum that the Angelos family has operated on. 
 

Time will tell. But I will be happy if:

1). Elias is extended and

2). He has the support of ownership that allows him to run a tight ship and compete in the AL East every year and

3).   Allows him to push the envelope when a crowning touch or final piece is needed to maximize an opportunity and 

4). As noted above. If we do nothing at all the payroll is going to jump almost 80 million over the next 4 years

 

I think you believe the Orioles can spend what the owners have. They likely won’t. But I think it is likely they will do everything they can over four years to maximize revenue and I think they will likely plow back profit into the team. Maybe they do dip into their personal funds some.  I just think it’s a bit foolish to expect that and very foolish to expect it today. 

[ThisIsBirdland]

3 minutes ago, foxfield said:

There is just so much wrong here. It’s like a hand full of facts accidentally but grossly misinterpreted. 
 

I agree that financially the Orioles are going to have more flexibility.  How much, if any, the new owners are willing to subsidize in any year remains to be seen. But no team, even the Mets and Padres to quote your earlier examples are likely to run at massive deficits for more than a couple of years. 
 

Elias likely settles in at around 150-160 bases on today’s dollars. How that gets done could include some extensions. Or it could include some larger free agent deals.  It would be a gross exaggeration to expect the Orioles to spend at the level of the Yankees or the Dodgers. 
 

I do think a key component is that new ownership has flat out said it wants to bring a title to Baltimore. That is going to take more than the bare bones minimum that the Angelos family has operated on. 
 

Time will tell. But I will be happy if:

1). Elias is extended and

2). He has the support of ownership that allows him to run a tight ship and compete in the AL East every year and

3).   Allows him to push the envelope when a crowning touch or final piece is needed to maximize an opportunity and 

4). As noted above. If we do nothing at all the payroll is going to jump almost 80 million over the next 4 years

 

I think you believe the Orioles can spend what the owners have. They likely won’t. But I think it is likely they will do everything they can over four years to maximize revenue and I think they will likely plow back profit into the team. Maybe they do dip into their personal funds some.  I just think it’s a bit foolish to expect that and very foolish to expect it today. 

If comparing strictly to our current +/- $100m payroll, keep in mind that the 2027 payroll won't have Burnes ($15.7m), Kimbrel ($12m), Santander ($11.7m), Mullins ($6.3m), Hays ($6.3m), Mountcastle ($4.1m), McCann ($4m), and Means ($3.3m). Add in that we have $14m on the books for Davis and Cobb which will be lower (about $5m by 2027), and that's an offset of about $72m against the $89m Frobby listed above. So if I'm looking at this right (and someone please let me know if not), we're only looking at roughly $15m-$20m more to spend on that core 10 players in 2027 than we're looking at paying our current top 10 player salaries now.

Of course we'll have many more additional commitments, but I would anticipate many of them will be lower value or pre-arb players.

[Bemorewins]

11 minutes ago, foxfield said:

There is just so much wrong here. It’s like a hand full of facts accidentally but grossly misinterpreted. 
 

I agree that financially the Orioles are going to have more flexibility.  How much, if any, the new owners are willing to subsidize in any year remains to be seen. But no team, even the Mets and Padres to quote your earlier examples are likely to run at massive deficits for more than a couple of years. 
 

Elias likely settles in at around 150-160 bases on today’s dollars. How that gets done could include some extensions. Or it could include some larger free agent deals.  It would be a gross exaggeration to expect the Orioles to spend at the level of the Yankees or the Dodgers. 
 

I do think a key component is that new ownership has flat out said it wants to bring a title to Baltimore. That is going to take more than the bare bones minimum that the Angelos family has operated on. 
 

Time will tell. But I will be happy if:

1). Elias is extended and

2). He has the support of ownership that allows him to run a tight ship and compete in the AL East every year and

3).   Allows him to push the envelope when a crowning touch or final piece is needed to maximize an opportunity and 

4). As noted above. If we do nothing at all the payroll is going to jump almost 80 million over the next 4 years

 

I think you believe the Orioles can spend what the owners have. They likely won’t. But I think it is likely they will do everything they can over four years to maximize revenue and I think they will likely plow back profit into the team. Maybe they do dip into their personal funds some.  I just think it’s a bit foolish to expect that and very foolish to expect it today. 

Talk about misinterpreting what someone said… Where did I say that the Orioles would or should operate at a level where they experience “massive deficits”? Where did I propose how much they would spend or say that the WOULD outspend the Yankees and or Dodgers?

You read A LOT into my words that I never said. The next time you think it’s a good idea to line up the insult at least be accurate.

[foxfield]

7 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

Talk about misinterpreting what someone said… Where did I say that the Orioles would or should operate at a level where they experience “massive deficits”? Where did I propose how much they would spend or say that the WOULD outspend the Yankees and or Dodgers?

You read A LOT into my words that I never said. The next time you think it’s a good idea to line up the insult at least be accurate.

I am not trying to be insulting. But you seem to indicate that the spending for the orioles should equate to the wealth of the owners. If so that is wrong.