Moving forward, what are your expectations for payroll in comparison to the rest of the league?

[Greg Pappas]

What are your expectations for our payroll, whether this season or in the years to come?

The current MLB payroll list courtesy of Spotrac.

1    New York Yankees  $304,691,666
2    New York Mets   $295,351,859
3    Houston Astros   $253,473,141
4    Philadelphia Phillies   $238,812,617
5    Atlanta Braves  $232,575,000
6    Texas Rangers   $225,590,000
7    Los Angeles Dodgers   $214,131,666
8    Toronto Blue Jays   $212,191,784
9    Chicago Cubs   $204,920,000
10    Boston Red Sox   $180,023,181
11    St. Louis Cardinals   $175,011,667
12    Los Angeles Angels   $173,858,094
LEAGUE AVERAGE =  $160,343,266                          
13    San Diego Padres   $156,815,453
14    Arizona Diamondbacks    $147,751,716
15    Colorado Rockies    $147,555,000
16    San Francisco Giants   $144,343,333
17    Seattle Mariners    $143,408,333
18    Chicago White Sox   $141,333,333
19    Minnesota Twins    $128,471,190
20    Kansas City Royals     $121,654,570
21    Detroit Tigers    $113,603,333
22    Washington Nationals   $110,191,429
23    Milwaukee Brewers    $106,694,960
24    Cleveland Guardians    $102,913,928
25    Cincinnati Reds    $100,868,333
26    Baltimore Orioles    $100,598,668

Edited February 7 by Greg Pappas

[Matt Bennett]

Consistently league average once full affects of ownership change take place. 

[Sports Guy]

How do you define moving forward?

The young players don’t start making “real money” until their 5th year of service time.

We will have a ton of guys very cheap for a while and that should be a trend under Elias.

Id be surprised if the payroll hits 160M any time soon.  That starts to potentially happen once these guys hit their second and third arb years.

[Safelykept]

3 minutes ago, Matt Bennett said:

Consistently league average once full affects of ownership change take place. 

100% agree. At least that by the beginning of next season if not more.

[Greg Pappas]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

How do you define moving forward?

Just a general question... can be replied to in regards to this season and/or in the years to come. 

[Frobby]

It should be understood that most teams don’t run a perfectly level payroll, or anything close.  They fluctuate up and down and that’s normal.   I studied every team’s payroll over a 20-year period and wrote about it here.

That said, I think the O’s will hover around league average, perhaps getting into the 12th/13th range at times but dipping a bit below average at other times.  We are a smaller than average market with smaller than average revenues, and I expect new ownership will support the team but not subsidize it over the long run.  

Edit - I agree with @Sports Guythst we won’t get to league average right away, since we are fortunate to have a lot of young, cheap good players right now. 
 

Edited February 7 by Frobby

[Aristotelian]

Most of the rankings I've seen put our market in the middle of the pack but below average. Also need to distinguish between median and mean. (The league average is $160M but the median is $144M due to extremely high payrolls at the top). Finally, I think Elias's personal style is to lean toward the Tampa type of model, avoiding long contracts with potential for catastrophic risk, and that is going to limit payroll a bit. So I do not expect to see us with an above average payroll any time soon, and it will probably be significantly below average (but not bottom of the league).

[Bemorewins]

2 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Most of the rankings I've seen put our market in the middle of the pack but below average. Also need to distinguish between median and mean. (The league average is $160M but the median is $144M due to extremely high payrolls at the top). Finally, I think Elias's personal style is to lean toward the Tampa type of model, avoiding long contracts with potential for catastrophic risk, and that is going to limit payroll a bit. So I do not expect to see us with an above average payroll any time soon, and it will probably be significantly below average (but not bottom of the league).

Elias comes from HOU and before that STL and he prefers the Tampa model? What gives you the impression that he rejects the systems that he comes from and helped to build (and have produced championship success)?

In your opinion do you believe that Tampa's extremely frugal model is superior to HOU's or STL's?

[Frobby]

3 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Most of the rankings I've seen put our market in the middle of the pack but below average.

To me, there’s only one market ranking that really matters — the one MLB uses to determine which teams get extra draft picks, draft pool allotments and international pool allotments, called Revenue Sharing Market Score.  The Os rank 23rd there.   

 

[Il BuonO]

I would think it’s relative to their market, so less than average. 
 

I’m not a believer that a team has to spend obscene amounts of money evidenced by the failure of many large FA signings. Also, the consistent success of a team like Tampa Bay should be a model for smaller market teams. The Orioles are in that group.

Draft and develop well, add free agents to compliment the team. 

Edited February 7 by Il BuonO

[interloper]

Expectations?

Yeah, no. 

[Bemorewins]

22 minutes ago, Frobby said:

To me, there’s only one market ranking that really matters — the one MLB uses to determine which teams get extra draft picks, draft pool allotments and international pool allotments, called Revenue Sharing Market Score.  The Os rank 23rd there.   

 

And SD is below us in this metric, yet their payroll far surpasses ours. And even in a down year for them (last season) their attendance was 3rd and they drew almost double the fans that we did.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

1 hour ago, Matt Bennett said:

Consistently league average once full affects of ownership change take place. 

This would be good for me. The Cardinals are $15M above the league average payroll and if the Orioles can be in this range too it's acceptable. The Orioles aren't going to be the Dodgers or Yankees when it comes to handing out player contracts.

On the other hand...

Edited February 7 by OsFanSinceThe80s

[btdart20]

I hope we land in the middle third consistently and top half occasionally.  Maybe a spike higher here and there...  

 

[Bemorewins]

I have no idea what the Orioles will do going forward. However, based upon the dramatic increase of spending power that is being added with the incoming ownership group COMBINED with the stated desire of the new control person (as opposed to the outgoing control person) to win a World Series; I have hope that things will change significantly for the better.

The reason that Tampa doesn't spend is not because it's better not to spend. They don't spend because their owner is VERY cheap. (A man who was known to fly commercially while owning the team at one point, maybe he still does?) He prefers pocketing profits than reinvesting a lot of money to improve the major league team to get them over the hump. The Rays have been in establishment since 99' and have ZERO hall of famers, which means rarely do they retain players for fans to get behind. They are in a constant of change/transition and regularly trade away top players.

That is not a model that I am excited for the Orioles to try to replicate when there are better/more successful models (that include championships) for us to chase.