The Kjerstad/Cowser spring competition

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Aristotelian said:

If it's Urias and O'Hearn, not so much. If it is two of your core guys (say, two Hays, Santander, and Mountcastle) I would call that significant. There is some risk there if Cowser comes up and looks as bad as he did last year for longer. You are looking at trying to replace 4-5 WAR with rookies. That isn't so easy to do.

What’s being discussed is one of the 2 vet IFers and 1 of the 3 vet hitters.

[btdart20]

47 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Zero people have talked about turning over a significant chunk of the roster unless you think 2 players is significant.

Then I misread your passion.  The pace of the rookie integration will be interesting.  It actually sounds like I may be anticipating a greater degree of turnover than you are then.

I think we'll be around 1200-1500 PAs for rookies this year with Mayo being the X factor. 

[Aristotelian]

42 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

What’s being discussed is one of the 2 vet IFers and 1 of the 3 vet hitters.

Fair enough. I agree we are likely to replace that production from within. Still, unless we are getting back anything that helps, I see the case for keeping the vet hitters. 

[deward]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

If healthy, he will be in AAA by mid June. By the end of August, he will have gotten plenty of AAA at bats and if he is performing well and the Os need a bat, there is no reason for him not to get the call.

Now, that is a lot to have to happen..he has to be healthy, hit well and the Os have to have a need.  Obviously you never know about health but I don’t think performance is going to be an issue.

So, for me, it comes down to health and need.

Like I said, if Adley gets hurt. If the need isn't at C, then I can't see Elias bypassing the other options that already exist in front of Basallo anywhere else. I'm not even sure that Elias wouldn't just go with McCann as plan A in the event of a season-ending injury to Adley. It'd be fun to be wrong, but I wouldn't be betting on Basallo to get anything beyond the same cup of coffee Kjerstad got last year. 

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, deward said:

Like I said, if Adley gets hurt. If the need isn't at C, then I can't see Elias bypassing the other options that already exist in front of Basallo anywhere else. I'm not even sure that Elias wouldn't just go with McCann as plan A in the event of a season-ending injury to Adley. It'd be fun to be wrong, but I wouldn't be betting on Basallo to get anything beyond the same cup of coffee Kjerstad got last year. 

If he comes up this year, it’s for his bat, not glove. Adley doesn’t matter.

[OriolesMagic83]

9 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

If healthy, he will be in AAA by mid June. By the end of August, he will have gotten plenty of AAA at bats and if he is performing well and the Os need a bat, there is no reason for him not to get the call.

Now, that is a lot to have to happen..he has to be healthy, hit well and the Os have to have a need.  Obviously you never know about health but I don’t think performance is going to be an issue.

So, for me, it comes down to health and need.

Yeah, let's just switch to a 30 man roster.  It will give us extra flexibility.

[Just Regular]

LABR's AL only room tonight guessed confidence Ryan O'Hearn's playing time is secure over these two.

An authentic Lowenstein is useful and the young DH/OF guys would be challenged early to outplay it.

But if you feel like it was lightning in a bottle and even Mountcastle as a 1st round pick you happen to have but don't really like is someone you want to invest more in, then....

Only O'Hearn really stands in the way of 1B Mountcastle, DH Kjerstad (or Cowser) playing near enough to everyday.     Mountcastle should be getting towards those 10000 hours of practice to be really good at 1B defense, right?

I wouldn't be shocked if a couple years back Elias could send mischievous texts to the Padres like, "we know you have to cut Jorge Mateo, and we're just waiting", and now the circle completes and Colorado or Chicago get to say "we know you have to cut Ryan O'Hearn and Ramon Urias, and we're just waiting (and no they can't be small pieces in your Dylan Cease bid)."

Before Santander departs, the path is really more through the first basemen.    DL Hall being in the first big deal Elias actually closed hints to me Mountcastle could be next.    Mountcastle trade value in this slow market is constrained by JD Martinez or Brandon Belt hanging around wondering if they'll get jobs.     Belt may end up playing for less than the 1/4 Mountcastle will command in Arb1 this year.    Carlos Santana made it to ~$5M, a number Arb2 Mountcastle probably blows past for 2025 with a decent season.

An early Mountcastle trade and O'Hearn fade could open a path for 1B Santander, RF Cowser, DH Kjerstad even (or however those 3 best defend those positions, probably something different every day based on the arms, bats, ballpark and weather that day.

I still have hopes Mountcastle becomes a more significant contributor, but while we wait out Mayo and Basallo, Elias' most "My Guys" lineup in early 2024 might be like:

SS Gunnar, C Adley, 1B Santander, LF Hays, DH Kjerstad, CF Mullins, 3B Westburg, RF Cowser, 2B Holliday

[sportsfan8703]

2 hours ago, Just Regular said:

LABR's AL only room tonight guessed confidence Ryan O'Hearn's playing time is secure over these two.

An authentic Lowenstein is useful and the young DH/OF guys would be challenged early to outplay it.

But if you feel like it was lightning in a bottle and even Mountcastle as a 1st round pick you happen to have but don't really like is someone you want to invest more in, then....

Only O'Hearn really stands in the way of 1B Mountcastle, DH Kjerstad (or Cowser) playing near enough to everyday.     Mountcastle should be getting towards those 10000 hours of practice to be really good at 1B defense, right?

I wouldn't be shocked if a couple years back Elias could send mischievous texts to the Padres like, "we know you have to cut Jorge Mateo, and we're just waiting", and now the circle completes and Colorado or Chicago get to say "we know you have to cut Ryan O'Hearn and Ramon Urias, and we're just waiting (and no they can't be small pieces in your Dylan Cease bid)."

Before Santander departs, the path is really more through the first basemen.    DL Hall being in the first big deal Elias actually closed hints to me Mountcastle could be next.    Mountcastle trade value in this slow market is constrained by JD Martinez or Brandon Belt hanging around wondering if they'll get jobs.     Belt may end up playing for less than the 1/4 Mountcastle will command in Arb1 this year.    Carlos Santana made it to ~$5M, a number Arb2 Mountcastle probably blows past for 2025 with a decent season.

An early Mountcastle trade and O'Hearn fade could open a path for 1B Santander, RF Cowser, DH Kjerstad even (or however those 3 best defend those positions, probably something different every day based on the arms, bats, ballpark and weather that day.

I still have hopes Mountcastle becomes a more significant contributor, but while we wait out Mayo and Basallo, Elias' most "My Guys" lineup in early 2024 might be like:

SS Gunnar, C Adley, 1B Santander, LF Hays, DH Kjerstad, CF Mullins, 3B Westburg, RF Cowser, 2B Holliday

Mountcastle was 10th in the AL in OPS in the 2nd half. That was post vertigo. With the WALL as a RHH. Only Ohtani, Casas, Seager, Tucker, Diaz, Witt, Rodriguez, Bregman, and Devers, had a higher 2nd half OPS. Pretty good company. 

Edited March 2 by sportsfan8703

[spleen1015]

22 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

The problem is you only get 13 spots. Right now it's hard to see how you could fit both Kjerstad and Cowser on the roster without an injury or trade. As it is, for either of them to make the roster, Mateo has to be the defensive OF guy (which is OK, since Hays and it seems Cowser could also be adequate defensive subs, as well as Westburg).

Adley McCann Mountcastle O'Hearn Gunnar Urias Westburg Mateo = 8 spots 

Mullins Hays Santander = 3 spots

That leaves two spots. Holliday or Maton/Wong gets one. 

I just don't see a way to fit both Kjerstad and Cowser without an injury or move.

Still, one of Kjerstad/Cowser can play the Hicks 3-4x per week role with the other being the next man up. There will be struggles and there will be injuries and both will get to play that role at times, maybe more. If Kjerstad and Cowser have success in their opportunities, they may well push Hays to the 5th OF spot, or O'Hearn to AAA, but I don't think we make those moves prematurely.

I think both get 300+ AB's this year but they don't have to make the opening day roster for that to happen. Will be interesting to compare the end of year AB's for Cowser, Kjerstad, O'Hearn, and Mountcastle. 

 

Cut/trade Mateo, have Holliday, Kjerstad & Cowser on the OD roster.

[DrungoHazewood]

4 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Mountcastle was 10th in the AL in OPS in the 2nd half. That was post vertigo. With the WALL as a RHH. Only Ohtani, Casas, Seager, Tucker, Diaz, Witt, Rodriguez, Bregman, and Devers, had a higher 2nd half OPS. Pretty good company. 

I think that's a good data point, but it's just one. Mountcastle has been in the majors for 1638 PAs, he's 27, and prior to 2023 he had a .774 OPS, in 2023 he had a .779 OPS. Fangraphs lists a bunch of projections, all of them have Mountcastle between .758 and .789. They're just projections, but nobody is betting on a big breakout. Doesn't mean it can't happen, but I don't know if it's likely.

How well do unexpected 2nd half splits actually stick? In 2022 Nathaniel Lowe had a .964 OPS 2nd half, and a .771 coming into the season. In 2023 he had a .775. Eloy Jimenez had a .948, an .822 coming in, and a .758 in '23. Trayce Thompson had a .947, coming off a .688 career, and then a .579 '23. Joey Menses had a .930 as a 2nd half '22 rookie, then a .722 in '23. Coming into '22 Bo Bichette had an .850, 2nd half of '22 he had a .921, then an .814 in '23. Jake Fraley had a .656 going into '22, a .903 2nd half of '22, and a .783 in '23. Vinnie Pasquantino had an .899 as a late '22 rookie, then a .762 in '23.

I'm sure you could find counter-examples, but for the most part the plexiglass principle applies. Or you could call it the SI jinx. Players who play unexpectedly well (and often are recognized for that with things like magazine covers) tend to regress to career marks. "Tend to" doesn't mean that's destiny, but I don't know that I'd count on Mountcastle being a top-10 offensive player in '24.

Edited March 2 by DrungoHazewood

[Just Regular]

I think Mountcastle is an interesting Nurture/Culture kind of case.    He's a super talented free swinger who for awhile now has been under a system that likes a different texture of molding clay.    Different baseball skill sets, but Mountcastle is very talented like Jorge Mateo.    Can it be harnessed?

He's still going to have a productive season or three whenever Elias is finished with him and like Santander-Means-Hays-Mullins, he will also bring "AL East experience" to market.    Maybe he follows Vlad Guerrero if the Toronto situation doesn't work out.

A Mountcastle who can execute the next couple seasons on hard-chiseled small adjustments like he flashed end of last year could also be a great change of pace for pitchers trying to navigate the Orioles lineup.    Its in him to be durably better than one, or even both, of Kjerstad or Cowser.     To borrow Elias' Jordan Westburg framing, he's established.

[G54377]

I like having Mountcastle's RH bat against lefties. When he's on, he's our best bet to carry the offense against a lefty. 849 career OPS against LH and 1052(!) last year. That's 1052 even with all the injury/vertigo stuff. 

[Frobby]

Cowser had three terrible looking at bats today that ended in swinging strikeouts, then absolutely pulverized a 463-foot homer that cleared the batting eye well beyond the CF fence.  One thing about Cowser, he doesn’t hit a ton of homers, but when he gets a hold of one, he can really send it a long way.  That’s at least the fourth homer of 440+ feet I can remember from him from last spring training to now, including a monster shot in the AAA championship game that looked at lot like the one today.  

Kjerstad also had a nice day, three hits plus a hard hit line drive caught in fairly deep RCF.
 

[Say O!]

45 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Cowser had three terrible looking at bats today that ended in swinging strikeouts, then absolutely pulverized a 463-foot homer that cleared the batting eye well beyond the CF fence.  

 

Noteworth that the HR was also vs LH pitcher.
 

This dichotomy (3Ks and a mammoth HR) is what makes Cowser a polarizing prospect among talent evaluators. He can look bad and superlative in the same game. 

[rm5678]

1 hour ago, Say O! said:

Noteworth that the HR was also vs LH pitcher.
 

 

And it was with 2 strikes, as was Holliday's.