Jackson Holliday 2024

[Malike]

Just now, interloper said:

I've commented that his OPS is too OBP-based for my particular liking, but I'm not against him getting another look this year. I just think he's going to really pop next year when he's older and slugging more. 

I think the shine is off him a bit based on his AAA season this year, where there are a few yellow flags about his bat (ground ball rate, etc) and his defense. That doesn't mean everyone is giving up on him or eager to dump him in any trade. But it does mean he's falling more in line with Mayo and Basallo in terms of prospect status for some. 

I'm sure there are some fans out there who gave up on him after 34 ABs, but I don't see anyone around here like that. 

I mean, he's 20 years old at the highest level of the MiL and is more than holding his own against players years older than him. People here think they are hiding him from scouts so his value doesn't plummet so they can sneak him through in a trade. There are a lot of ridiculous things being said about him. He's slugging .471 at AAA at 20, he slugged .499 last year across all levels. Basallo is slugging .449 at the same age Holliday was in AA last year where Holliday slugged .507.

[MDK02]

26 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I don't know what sources you read/listen to, but if you think the Orioles would move Mayo and Basallo for Skubel, I think you better adjust your sources. Whether Holliday is available or not is up for debate and I've made my feelings know which one of the big 3 I'd trade for him, but at the end of the day, the Tigers are going to want a haul for him. 

I'd be elated if the Orioles could get him without one of the big 3, but I don't see that happening.

There's no way we get Skubal without giving up 1 of those big 3. All the baseball networks(TV/radio) still put Holliday as the top guy in our system so that's who I see as untouchable, maybe Elias and company don't see it that way.. who knows. In my opinion, Mayo is probably the guy who will go if someone is dealt. 

[Sports Guy]

This board has a prevailing thought that what we see is what these guys are.

Holliday can’t get better. Cowser can’t get better. Grayson is a disappointment and will never be a TOR guy.

And then we have the guys who think HK is a definite stud now. People who think Westburg has a floor of an AS player every year. Hell, we have people who think Adley could be a 900+ OPS DH.

The up and down, what have you done for me lately of people on this site is really crazy to me.

[Malike]

Just now, MDK02 said:

There's no way we get Skubal without giving up 1 of those big 3. All the baseball networks(TV/radio) still put Holliday as the top guy in our system so that's who I see as untouchable, maybe Elias and company don't see it that way.. who knows. In my opinion, Mayo is probably the guy who will go if someone is dealt. 

I agree it would be Mayo if it's anyone. I'd prefer him to stay here and the team go after a solid number 3 and some pen help which shouldn't cost any of them.

[MDK02]

Just now, Malike said:

I agree it would be Mayo if it's anyone. I'd prefer him to stay here and the team go after a solid number 3 and some pen help which shouldn't cost any of them.

I'd be good with that too. I'd almost rather they address the BP with a couple good arms and a back end starter instead of depleting the system for Skubal but it would be exciting. Either way, I really hope Elias is active. 

[interloper]

10 minutes ago, Malike said:

I mean, he's 20 years old at the highest level of the MiL and is more than holding his own against players years older than him. People here think they are hiding him from scouts so his value doesn't plummet so they can sneak him through in a trade. There are a lot of ridiculous things being said about him. He's slugging .471 at AAA at 20, he slugged .499 last year across all levels. Basallo is slugging .449 at the same age Holliday was in AA last year where Holliday slugged .507.

I haven't seen those things, that would qualify as pretty ridiculous. Scouts know who he is, obviously, regardless of what he does this year. 

Anyway, I just see the 34 AB thing get thrown around a lot at the first hint of criticism sometimes, and for me it just ruins any conversation or debate about the player. 

As for trades, I don't know. I think I chose Basallo in that one poll that asked which of the big three we'd least hate to lose in a trade. I probably stand by that for now. If only because I think this team could really use Mayo's bat right now. 

Edited July 18 by interloper

[Tony-OH]

43 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

If you would asked the question in April , would you trade Holliday, it would have been one of the most lopsided polls in OH history.

Now, a lot more people would do it. We have seen several people say that the 34 at bats has caused them to re-think things.

Ill go on record that within a few years, we will look back on these discussions and be like, people were nuts for even remotely considering trading Holliday.

Well, if he's not traded, I hope you're right. 

[Tony-OH]

39 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

This board has a prevailing thought that what we see is what these guys are.

Holliday can’t get better. Cowser can’t get better. Grayson is a disappointment and will never be a TOR guy.

And then we have the guys who think HK is a definite stud now. People who think Westburg has a floor of an AS player every year. Hell, we have people who think Adley could be a 900+ OPS DH.

The up and down, what have you done for me lately of people on this site is really crazy to me.

I think you are generalizing way too much here. Sure, there are people who think players are who they are, but for the most part, people understand that players develop at different stages and under different circumstances. 

Sure, there are the "what have you done for me lately" crowd, but in their defense a little bit, the Orioles are no longer about developing at the major league level. You have to produce at the major league level to be on a championship caliber team. 

Now, does that mean that a player in a slump must immediately be banished, of course not, but you also can't have the "there's nothing more for them to learn in the minors" attitude any more because it's about wins and losses now. 

In Cowser's case, his defense, including the fact that he plays CF is keeping him in the majors as well as the fact that this team is still on 100+ win pace. For Holliday, he doesn't have that yet because he's DHing and has elbow issues. 

Sometime I think if you say that you'd be ok with trading a player that it means you don't like the player. When you start going after extreme talents like Skubal, you have to be willing to give up extreme talents. I don't want to trade any of the Big-3, Cowser or Kjerstad. BUT, I realize that if the team is going to get a talent like Skubal, guys like that are going to have to be included.

[LookitsPuck]

Jackson Holliday is 20. At AAA, there are 2 batters that are 20. And Jackson Holliday is one of them. 

There are only 6 players that are 21.

If we consider all players at AAA with a minimum of 50 PA between the ages of 20-22, there are 34 of them. Some are no longer at AAA (ex: James Wood). Jackson Holliday among those 34:

• 3rd best OBP
• 14th best SLG
• 8th best OPS
• 15th best AVG
• 15th best ISO
• 16th best K%
• 7th best WOBA
• 12th most HR
• 1st in 2B
• 6th in SB

What does this tell me? Well, he's really good for a 20 year old. Especially since nearly 80% of the guys on that list are 22.

Even if you add the 23 year olds in the mix (total of 64 people 23 and under):

• 4th best OBP
• 28th best SLG
• 13th best OPS
• 26th best AVG
• 25th best ISO
• 29th best K%
• 11th best WOBA
• 20th most HR
• 1st in 2B
• 12th in SB

The improvement between AAA last year and this year is also massive for him. Better average, OBP, slugging, OPS, he's stealing bases at a 3x pace, strikeout rate is better. And keep in mind he wasn't a slouch at AAA last year *as a 19 year old*! 

His numbers at AA as a 19 year old vs. Basallo:

• Holliday: .338/.421/.507 - .928 OPS
• Basallo: .274/.338/.449 - .787 OPS

So, yeah. Holliday is really good. 

Edited July 18 by LookitsPuck

[LookitsPuck]

1 hour ago, interloper said:

I haven't seen those things, that would qualify as pretty ridiculous. Scouts know who he is, obviously, regardless of what he does this year. 

Anyway, I just see the 34 AB thing get thrown around a lot at the first hint of criticism sometimes, and for me it just ruins any conversation or debate about the player. 

As for trades, I don't know. I think I chose Basallo in that one poll that asked which of the big three we'd least hate to lose in a trade. I probably stand by that for now. If only because I think this team could really use Mayo's bat right now. 

I just don't think 34 AB is really worth much of anything. By that criteria, in Gunnar's first full season, he started the season with a 148 average in 35 PA. He struck out in 14 of them. In Adley's first 35 PA, he had a 167 average. He bottomed out at 142 average and a 422 OPS in 62 PA before really turning it around. And Adley was 24 at the time. Gunnar was 21 when he was first called up and was nearly 22 when he was struggling at the start of his full season. 

 

[banks703]

13 minutes ago, LookitsPuck said:

I just don't think 34 AB is really worth much of anything. By that criteria, in Gunnar's first full season, he started the season with a 148 average in 35 PA. He struck out in 14 of them. In Adley's first 35 PA, he had a 167 average. He bottomed out at 142 average and a 422 OPS in 62 PA before really turning it around. And Adley was 24 at the time. Gunnar was 21 when he was first called up and was nearly 22 when he was struggling at the start of his full season. 

 

I'm not sure who these posts are targeting but I think that you are trying to convince an entire message board of things that the overwhelming consensus already know.

I've had similar arguments with other posters in the past where they contested that JH is a SS because he was drafted as a SS or he wouldn't be the top ranked prospect if he was anything other than a SS. Neither of those things are true. Cleveland actually just took a 2B with the #1 overall pick in this year's draft... and JH is now a 2B... so.. 

The O's dealing from a surplus of talent, specifically MI prospects, more specifically a guy who is currently rated the top overall  in the game, doesn't have to mean that anyone is down on the player. It just means that with the right return, anyone is available.

I promise that Mike Elias is not going to impede the progress of the organization, which at this time in their tenure/rebuild, is to compete for a World Series... for any one player. The O's may have two middle infield All-Stars penciled into their lineup for the next five years, who came up together and have a great rapport. Perhaps that is enough for them to let go of JH should the right deal come along. As I mentioned in earlier posts, perhaps they see the window with Burnes this year and know that they need another top half rotation starter to compete for a championship and they are prepared to pull out all stops to do that. Perhaps JH headlining a deal for a TOR starter with two years of control beyond this year means that they don't have to trade either of their other top 5. Perhaps Detroit prefers JH and it's just a matter of everything just lining up better with JH headlining a deal for Skubal. None of the above would mean definitively that anyone is down on JH. 

Anyone who has changed their opinion of a 20 year old kid just because he struggled in a dozen  or so games/34 ABs at the ML level, isn't someone that should occupy space in your brain.. because it's be beyond ridiculous to believe that a dozen games/34 ABs at 20 years old is who Jackson Holliday will be a year from today, five years, ten years.. 

It's less about being down on the player and more about the other factors and realizing that in order to get a true difference-maker who could put them in better position this year to compete for a World Series (and next year and the year after) .. they would have to give up a lot.

And who knows, maybe they do nothing but given the current construction of the big club, of the top 3 prospects who will be heavily sought after in deals to acquire pitching, like it or not, JH may be the most expendable. 

 

[Hallas]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

This board has a prevailing thought that what we see is what these guys are.

Holliday can’t get better. Cowser can’t get better. Grayson is a disappointment and will never be a TOR guy.

And then we have the guys who think HK is a definite stud now. People who think Westburg has a floor of an AS player every year. Hell, we have people who think Adley could be a 900+ OPS DH.

The up and down, what have you done for me lately of people on this site is really crazy to me.

The idea that people think Grayson is a disappointment is so wild to me.  He's a solid #2 starter in the league in his second full big league season.  Burnes as a 24 year old had an 8.82 ERA and got demoted.

[Sports Guy]

6 minutes ago, Hallas said:

The idea that people think Grayson is a disappointment is so wild to me.  He's a solid #2 starter in the league in his second full big league season.  Burnes as a 24 year old had an 8.82 ERA and got demoted.

I don’t get it. Must be immediate dominance every start or he’s a disappointment.

[OnlyOneOriole]

5 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

I don't know what sources you read/listen to, but if you think the Orioles would move Mayo and Basallo for Skubel, I think you better adjust your sources. Whether Holliday is available or not is up for debate and I've made my feelings know which one of the big 3 I'd trade for him, but at the end of the day, the Tigers are going to want a haul for him. 

I'd be elated if the Orioles could get him without one of the big 3, but I don't see that happening.

I mean I don't know what else to add to this. It is spot on.  Holliday is the expendable one now. 

JH was here for a month and looked horrible.  No one expected him to be Manny starting out, but he looked like a little kid.  Not elite.  In no way shape or form do the Os, or much of anyone else in baseballs inner circles after seeing that...think of him as the next 'coming'.

A good player yes.  But not a superstar. He has major flaws and we all saw it...whether some want to admit it or not,  Starting with his batting stance and swing. 

You trade him now for something we really need.  Cheap, controllable starting pitching.

This should not even be a question. 

Edited July 19 by OnlyOneOriole

[OnlyOneOriole]

4 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

This board has a prevailing thought that what we see is what these guys are.

Holliday can’t get better. Cowser can’t get better. Grayson is a disappointment and will never be a TOR guy.

And then we have the guys who think HK is a definite stud now. People who think Westburg has a floor of an AS player every year. Hell, we have people who think Adley could be a 900+ OPS DH.

The up and down, what have you done for me lately of people on this site is really crazy to me.

I think both Cowser and GR will get better and be elite players.

 

So there.