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ESPN's Season Preview

Uli2001

By Uli2001
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dystopia Hangout Grand Counsel

dystopia

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1 hour ago, Uli2001 said:

The ESPN season preview is out:

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/39785389/mlb-2024-season-preview-opening-day-power-rankings-playoff-odds-all-30-teams

I know these rankings are good for nothing, but here the predict the Orioles to win 14 fewer games than last year, and give no rationale whatsoever for that.

Nobody needs a rationale, it’s just always assumed the Orioles will regress no matter who they add. 

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DrinkinWithFermi Perennial All-Star

DrinkinWithFermi

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1 hour ago, Uli2001 said:

The ESPN season preview is out:

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/39785389/mlb-2024-season-preview-opening-day-power-rankings-playoff-odds-all-30-teams

I know these rankings are good for nothing, but here the predict the Orioles to win 14 fewer games than last year, and give no rationale whatsoever for that.

We significantly outperformed our Pythagorean record last year and didn't upgrade this year's roster to any notable degree.

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ThisIsBirdland Major Leaguer

ThisIsBirdland

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1 minute ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

We significantly outperformed our Pythagorean record last year and didn't upgrade this year's roster to any notable degree.

We outperformed it by 7 games, they’re expecting a regression of 14 games. I don’t enjoy the constant media complaints, but I don’t think a 14 game regression is likely either.

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Aglets Hangout Grand Counsel

Aglets

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5 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

We significantly outperformed our Pythagorean record last year and didn't upgrade this year's roster to any notable degree.

How many Cy Young Award winners would we need to add to our rotation for it to count as a "notable" upgrade?

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Uli2001 Hangout Grand Counsel

Uli2001

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2 minutes ago, baltfan said:

Spring training makes me thinks this is going to be wrong.  Spring Training stats don't always mean a lot, but the games I watched this team just looked so talented and sure of itself.

It wouldn't be the first time either.

A regression to the pythagorean record, okay I could buy that. Not a regression of 14 games.

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baltfan Hangout Grand Counsel

baltfan

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1 minute ago, Uli2001 said:

It wouldn't be the first time either.

A regression to the pythagorean record, okay I could buy that. Not a regression of 14 games.

And people seem to forget that Means didn't start the season and Bradish was hurt in the first game he pitched.

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MCO'sFan Major Leaguer

MCO'sFan

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1 hour ago, Spy Fox said:

The records given there would have the O's, Jays, Rays, and Rangers finishing in a four-way tie for the three WC spots at 87-75. That would be something. 

And of course, ESPN has the NYY winning the East. It should just be called the YES/ESPN Network

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DrinkinWithFermi Perennial All-Star

DrinkinWithFermi

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1 minute ago, ThisIsBirdland said:

We outperformed it by 7 games, they’re expecting a regression of 14 games. I don’t enjoy the constant media complaints, but I don’t think a 14 game regression is likely either.

I don't agree with such a precipitous drop either, but there is certainly reason to think the team could regress a not-insignificant amount this year.

2 minutes ago, Aglets said:

How many Cy Young Award winners would we need to add to our rotation for it to count as a "notable" upgrade?

We added one TOR SP and lost another for an indeterminate period of time, and we lost our elite closer and replaced him with a guy in his mid-30s who has been up and down in recent years. Other than that, the team is more or less the same.

That's not exactly what I would call a "notable upgrade" over last year's roster, but YMMV.

 

 

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now Perennial All-Star

now

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20 minutes ago, Aglets said:

How many Cy Young Award winners would we need to add to our rotation for it to count as a "notable" upgrade?

And compare a recent MLB.com article ranking our rotation as (tied for) 10th best.

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Sanity Check Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

Sanity Check

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Posted
1 hour ago, Uli2001 said:

The ESPN season preview is out:

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/39785389/mlb-2024-season-preview-opening-day-power-rankings-playoff-odds-all-30-teams

I know these rankings are good for nothing, but here the predict the Orioles to win 14 fewer games than last year, and give no rationale whatsoever for that.

Clearly ESPN doesn't drink Orange Kool Aid.  Honestly, it's probably good to have bulletin board material like this to keep everyone focused on the prize and wanting to prove these folks (among others) wrong.

Or, maybe it's the difference in the combined WAR that Jackson Holliday and Coby Mayo would have given us vs. what we'll get from Tyler Nevin and Ramon Urias.  Ok, I'm not really serious about that one, but just wanted to be the first to say it.

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Can_of_corn Hangout Grand Counsel

Can_of_corn

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21 minutes ago, ThisIsBirdland said:

We outperformed it by 7 games, they’re expecting a regression of 14 games. I don’t enjoy the constant media complaints, but I don’t think a 14 game regression is likely either.

Yep, 7 games.

But they also outperformed their expected offense.

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