2024 Ongoing Lineup Thread

[Roll Tide]

4 hours ago, SteveA said:

I simply don't get the hate when Hays is in the lineup vs a lefthanded pitcher.   He is one of our best hitters vs LHP.   

So Cowser had 2 hits , the other three were 0 for!

[Malike]

2 minutes ago, bpilktree67 said:

I do expect him to be traded soon.  The Braves lost Albies with what sounds like a broken wrist today and are very thin at 2nd so could be option for them.  

They'd probably go with Rengifo who has an OPS+ of 124 and has resumed baseball activities. 

[Brooks The Great]

5 hours ago, SteveA said:

I simply don't get the hate when Hays is in the lineup vs a lefthanded pitcher.   He is one of our best hitters vs LHP.   

Hays' advanced metrics (see below) for the season are mediocre at best, and he's mostly only started against LHP for the past couple months since he came back from the IL.

Hays' speed has also cratered over the past couple years, so he's not a great defensive outfielder anymore because he can't cover ground like he did in 2022 and 2023. His sprint speed has declined precipitously. It's most likely due to an injury, but the team shouldn't put an injured player in a position to possibly hurt himself further and potentially hurt the team if he's adversely affected physically. 

There's no reason to roster a replacement level player like this, especially when the team is negligently benching/platooning a big power bat in Kjerstad, sitting Cowser too much as well, and has Norby in AAA who can also play the OF. The O's have multiple young players that need more playing time and can have a big impact on the lineup. Hays can be optioned to Norfolk or traded for cash considerations or a low level prospect if he's not enough of a team player to accept a minors assignment.

Kjerstad needs to play every day, and if he comes anywhere close to reaching the kind of production he showed in the upper levels of the minors, not only is he a superior hitter to Hays regardless of splits, but he elevates the Orioles lineup and makes it less susceptible to slumps like we saw in the 2-3 weeks prior to the All Star Break. Moving on from Hays (and making Mullins the 4th OF) and stopping this team's overreliance on platooning with average-at-best players (which doesn't include O'Hearn) is the best way to make that happen.

[eddie83]

46 minutes ago, Brooks The Great said:

Hays' advanced metrics (see below) for the season are mediocre at best, and he's mostly only started against LHP for the past couple months since he came back from the IL.

Hays' speed has also cratered over the past couple years, so he's not a great defensive outfielder anymore because he can't cover ground like he did in 2022 and 2023. His sprint speed has declined precipitously. It's most likely due to an injury, but the team shouldn't put an injured player in a position to possibly hurt himself further and potentially hurt the team if he's adversely affected physically. 

There's no reason to roster a replacement level player like this, especially when the team is negligently benching/platooning a big power bat in Kjerstad, sitting Cowser too much as well, and has Norby in AAA who can also play the OF. The O's have multiple young players that need more playing time and can have a big impact on the lineup. Hays can be optioned to Norfolk or traded for cash considerations or a low level prospect if he's not enough of a team player to accept a minors assignment.

Kjerstad needs to play every day, and if he comes anywhere close to reaching the kind of production he showed in the upper levels of the minors, not only is he a superior hitter to Hays regardless of splits, but he elevates the Orioles lineup and makes it less susceptible to slumps like we saw in the 2-3 weeks prior to the All Star Break. Moving on from Hays (and making Mullins the 4th OF) and stopping this team's overreliance on platooning with average-at-best players (which doesn't include O'Hearn) is the best way to make that happen.

Hays had an .868 OPS of LHP coming into today. Considering all the LH OF’s this team has if they ditch Hays another RH OF would be brought in. You bring up defense and then bring up Norby who has a ton of glove questions. Cowser has a .682 OPS of LHP and Mullins is .386.

If they decide to move on from him next year so be it. Makes no sense to now.  
 

There will be changes to the roster next year. They aren’t ditching Hays now. 

[Brooks The Great]

34 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

Hays had an .868 OPS of LHP coming into today. Considering all the LH OF’s this team has if they ditch Hays another RH OF would be brought in. You bring up defense and then bring up Norby who has a ton of glove questions. Cowser has a .682 OPS of LHP and Mullins is .386.

If they decide to move on from him next year so be it. Makes no sense to now.  
 

There will be changes to the roster next year. They aren’t ditching Hays now. 

I only bring up defense because Hays' defense isn't an asset anymore because he's been gimpy (I've heard as much from a friend who talked to a player currently on the team, and the player mentioned it).

The tradeoff of developing Kjerstad and Cowser and playing them over Hays is worth ditching Hays and his OPS against lefties, which he may not even be able to sustain for the rest of the season given his poor approach at the plate in general. Norby is also a more versatile player than Hays, because he can play both corner OF spots as well as 2B, which makes it easier to release/trade Urias and Mateo as well. 

Edited July 22 by Brooks The Great

[eddie83]

13 minutes ago, Brooks The Great said:

I only bring up defense because Hays' defense isn't an asset anymore because he's been gimpy (I've heard as much from a friend who talked to a player currently on the team, and the player mentioned it).

The tradeoff of developing Kjerstad and Cowser and playing them over Hays is worth ditching Hays and his OPS against lefties, which he may not even be able to sustain for the rest of the season given his poor approach at the plate in general. Norby is also a more versatile player than Hays, because he can play both corner OF spots as well as 2B, which makes it easier to release/trade Urias and Mateo as well. 

The issues you have brought up around Hays are valid. That said the focus is on the 24 Orioles and not the future. 
 

You are painting a picture of why they should look to move him this winter. Not now in my opinion. 

[Brooks The Great]

35 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

The issues you have brought up around Hays are valid. That said the focus is on the 24 Orioles and not the future. 
 

You are painting a picture of why they should look to move him this winter. Not now in my opinion. 

I'm telling you why he should be moved (to the minors or in a trade) now, especially because there are superior replacement options on the major league roster and in the minors that can be more productive than him, as well as make the 26-man roster more versatile.

It's perfectly reasonable for us to disagree on the timing on when the team will or should move on from Hays, and you're most likely correct that it will most likely be this offseason. But because I want the team to win a World Series this season, I hope they move on from him now/ASAP. Unfortunately, because of Elias's track record with even worse players such as Rougned Odor, Adam Frazier, Aaron Hicks, Ryan McKenna, and Jorge Mateo, I do think it'll be much later than I'd want. And, in my opinion, it's going to be to the detriment of the team.

Another thing to consider - you point out that Hays has an OPS over .800 against lefties in 2024 at the moment. I don't think it's reasonable to consider that to be sustainable to due Hays' own career splits.

Hays has a career OPS against lefties of .788. So it's reasonable to expect Hays to wind up close to that number by the end of this season. Even if Hays settles at .800 OPS against lefties as his final line, that'll mean he's likely going to be slashing an OPS of below .725ish (maybe less, I'm not great with math on the fly) the rest of the way to wind up there. That's not really any kind of significant platoon advantage to be benching Kjerstad in particular.

The other reason it's reasonable to expect Hays' OPS against lefties to regress is that, just as Hays has a pronounced favorable career split against LHP, he also has a pronounced unfavorable career split in the second half. For his career, Hays has hit .242/.296/.710 in the second half, for a tOPS+ of 90. So Hays in the second half has been 10 percent worse than his total career OPS. That makes sense given Hays is an injury prone player and tends to play through nagging injuries, leading to diminished production at the plate. 

Hays is/has been playing hurt. So it's not good baseball to stick with him and merely hope for the best, or to expect for him to continue overperforming considering his talent level, underlying metrics, and his career production. Its best to move on quickly to the younger options the team has available to replace him. 

Edited July 22 by Brooks The Great

[Aristotelian]

13 hours ago, Brooks The Great said:

I only bring up defense because Hays' defense isn't an asset anymore because he's been gimpy (I've heard as much from a friend who talked to a player currently on the team, and the player mentioned it).

The tradeoff of developing Kjerstad and Cowser and playing them over Hays is worth ditching Hays and his OPS against lefties, which he may not even be able to sustain for the rest of the season given his poor approach at the plate in general. Norby is also a more versatile player than Hays, because he can play both corner OF spots as well as 2B, which makes it easier to release/trade Urias and Mateo as well. 

Hays is a RHB and sometimes you need a RHB off the bench because the pitcher's splits matter too. Before getting pushed to the bench role, Hays put up 3, 2.5, and 2.5 WAR. Having a guy like that in a bench role is pretty nice. It's hard to know what would happen if he got more consistent playing time but up til this year he was quite solid so I think it's fair to say he could have been a starter for many teams. 

We may be losing Santander next year so having that extra RHB will be even more important. Even Bradfield, Beavers, and Etzel are all LHB. 

Norby could step into that role if his defense holds up, but Norby also has a lot more trade value than Hays and could bring back better pitching which is also a need. 

[Brooks The Great]

6 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Hays is a RHB and sometimes you need a RHB off the bench because the pitcher's splits matter too. Before getting pushed to the bench role, Hays put up 3, 2.5, and 2.5 WAR. Having a guy like that in a bench role is pretty nice. It's hard to know what would happen if he got more consistent playing time but up til this year he was quite solid so I think it's fair to say he could have been a starter for many teams. 

We may be losing Santander next year so having that extra RHB will be even more important. Even Bradfield, Beavers, and Etzel are all LHB. 

Norby could step into that role if his defense holds up, but Norby also has a lot more trade value than Hays and could bring back better pitching which is also a need. 

Those are valid points, but I actually think Norby has more value to the O's at this point as IF and OF depth, and also as a direct replacement for Hays.

Urias and Mateo are likely not going to be on the team next season, and Urias is likely the next player to go this season via trade, or DFA when Mayo is called up. Norby becomes much more important to this team if either Gunnar or Westburg get hurt. Given Mateo's clear regression as a defender since 2022, and how much of a black hole with the bat Jorge has always been, it's preferable to have Norby getting playing time at 2B instead of Mateo if there are any injuries to infielders, ESPECIALLY if Holliday is traded for Skubal. 

Hays is a guy who's going to be regressing further as he ages, and that process has already started. Norby, on the other hand, is just starting his MLB career, so he's the better guy to help replace the loss of Santander and balance the lefty-dominant lineup and depth chart you referred to.

[Hank Scorpio]

13 hours ago, Brooks The Great said:

Hays is/has been playing hurt. So it's not good baseball to stick with him and merely hope for the best, or to expect for him to continue overperforming considering his talent level, underlying metrics, and his career production. Its best to move on quickly to the younger options the team has available to replace him. 

For the better part of his career....

[Brooks The Great]

1 minute ago, Hank Scorpio said:

For the better part of his career....

Indeed. I had a poster last season argue with me and disagree with me that Hays is injury prone. I laughed at the time, even more so now. I made the post sometime during Hays' nice first half run on his way to the All Star Game, so the poster disagreeing with me was blinded by recency bias.

[Aristotelian]

12 minutes ago, Brooks The Great said:

Indeed. I had a poster last season argue with me and disagree with me that Hays is injury prone. I laughed at the time, even more so now. I made the post sometime during Hays' nice first half run on his way to the All Star Game, so the poster disagreeing with me was blinded by recency bias.

He has 500+ AB's the last three years. A history of minor injuries to different parts of the body is not really concerning to me. You may be affected by confirmation bias. 

[Hank Scorpio]

7 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

He has 500+ AB's the last three years. A history of minor injuries to different parts of the body is not really concerning to me. You may be affected by confirmation bias. 

The point isn't that he's missing time, it's that he's playing hurt and it's affecting his production.

[Brooks The Great]

13 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

He has 500+ AB's the last three years. A history of minor injuries to different parts of the body is not really concerning to me. You may be affected by confirmation bias. 

Come on now, Hays gets hurt more than most outfielders with a similar number of at bats in the same timeframe. And he also plays banged up way more than the average OF.

We're going to fundamentally disagree on everything regarding Hays if you're going to simply assign his injuries to his workload. I guess you must be the same poster I referred to last season who claimed Hays isn't injury prone.

Edited July 22 by Brooks The Great

[Allan Bryant]

Hays’s salary is 6.5 million for this season. If the Orioles can find his replacement for lower salary, they may well look at that angle too