Corbin Burnes 2024

[Malike]

Rubenstein when he got home from the game, probably.

[OnlyOneOriole]

57 minutes ago, Spakman said:

This guy again. How many pitchers are better than him.  I’ll wait. It’s gonna be a very short list.

Yeah I can't really argue that.  He has been really good.

[Hallas]

On 7/25/2024 at 5:32 PM, OnlyOneOriole said:

I mean....he is good.  Very good.

 

Is he worth elite elite pitching $?

 

IMO no.  He is not dominant by any stretch and on the downward slope of his career.  Would love to have him for 3 years.  But not for what he will probably get paid. 

For what it's worth... pitcher aging is really weird, and in general for the past 10 or so years pitchers in their 30s have maintained their performance better than they have in the past.  He's still got a really good chance to be an above average pitcher at age 35, as long as he stays healthy.  (The biggest thing here is health, which is always a ticking time bomb with pitchers especially as they age.  I suspect some of the apparent improvements in pitcher aging are due to suvivorship bias since injury rates are higher the older you get.)

 

Between guys like Mad Max and Greinke there's certainly recent precedent for dominant pitchers that were able to maintain performance through their early-mid 30s.  Burnes definitely qualifies as dominant (and healthy.)  Even if he does get hurt, talented players are able to bounce back.  Kershaw and Sale have been functional (or better) pitchers once they were able to get healthy.

 

Burnes has a pretty nice track record of staying healthy, and it's clear to me that he understands how to maximize his stuff with minor adjustments in either pitch selection or mechanics in game, which helps him stay consistent.  You're not going to lose that mental part or the preparedness part of the game as you age, so I lean toward him continuing to be effective.

Edited July 31 by Hallas

[Just Regular]

Burnes, Lugo and Skubal have all had a high ER semi-clunker game in their last few turns to be level about 2.60 ERA, after 23 turns in Burnes' case.

Kirby and Gilbert in Seattle are in stalking position to unseat one of them as probables for the three AL Cy Young Award finalists.

Grayson Rodriguez may or may not be yearning for the days a gaudy Win total carried more heft, but hopefully his strongest Cy bids are in future seasons.   I do hope he stress tests the concept to the tune of like 21 wins just to see what would happen.     The Orioles and Yankees pitchers have more opportunity for some vivid single game performance down the stretch.

[Just Regular]

Turn 25 about to occur as our guy tries to keep up with Tarik Skubal for Cy.      Kirby and Lugo have had big blowups to hurt their chances; Logan Gilbert gets to dance with Paul Skenes tonight.

Is it going to go okay if we have to IBB Aaron Judge early in a game?

[ORIOLE33]

Has not looked like an ace his last three starts. 

[glenn__davis]

Certainly came up small tonight.  He'll get it fixed. 

[Spy Fox]

2 hours ago, Just Regular said:

Turn 25 about to occur as our guy tries to keep up with Tarik Skubal for Cy.      Kirby and Lugo have had big blowups to hurt their chances; Logan Gilbert gets to dance with Paul Skenes tonight.

He now needs Skubal to join the big blowup club in order to have a good chance. 

[oriolediehard]

Burnes is not worth what he is asking for.

[Sports Guy]

His last 4 starts prior to today he had a 4.4 ERA. Now it’s a 6.65 ERA over 5 starts. He is definitely not pitching as well as he was. 

[Ohfan67]

Please don’t be hurt, please don’t be hurt. 

[bpilktree67]

He did seem to concentrate on holding runners on better tonight maybe he needs to not worry about them too much.  

[LGOrioles]

He’s really good but he’s not dominant. He’s pretty much as good as you can be while striking out less than a batter per inning, but unless he starts K’ing more batters again, he’s probably not a truly elite starter. 

Bradish since the 2nd half of last year has been a much better pitcher than Burnes has (in his time with the O’s). 3.3 WAR and 2.34 ERA in 104 IP for Bradish versus 3.2 WAR and 2.71 ERA (coming into tonight) in 149 IP for Burnes. Burnes is still great, but losing Bradish sucks. 

[RavensNOsGuy]

Him Trying to hold on runners looked like a fish out of water. Like he never had to do it or tried and then with all of the talk he decided he was going to be at the other end of the spectrum about it. To prove a point to everyone. 

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

2 hours ago, oriolediehard said:

Burnes is not worth what he is asking for.

There's no way I go more than three years for Burnes. I haven't looked at the free agent market, but maybe the Orioles go after another pitcher who won't be as costly or trade for one.