Corbin Burnes 2024

[Roll Tide]

7 hours ago, LGOrioles said:

He’s really good but he’s not dominant. He’s pretty much as good as you can be while striking out less than a batter per inning, but unless he starts K’ing more batters again, he’s probably not a truly elite starter. 

Bradish since the 2nd half of last year has been a much better pitcher than Burnes has (in his time with the O’s). 3.3 WAR and 2.34 ERA in 104 IP for Bradish versus 3.2 WAR and 2.71 ERA (coming into tonight) in 149 IP for Burnes. Burnes is still great, but losing Bradish sucks. 

He’s got 28 strike outs in 28 innings over his last 5 starts. You need more than 1 starter so you have room for Burnes and Bradish at the top of the rotation. Besides, most pitchers come back from TJ …but it’s not guaranteed and it usually takes a year before they are back to normal. IMO …Bradish may or may not pitch next season and let’s say they are conservative with him and he comes back in 2026. I’m betting Burnes is the better pitcher in 2026.

[Warehouse]

11 hours ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

There's no way I go more than three years for Burnes. I haven't looked at the free agent market, but maybe the Orioles go after another pitcher who won't be as costly or trade for one.

I think Elias has been fairly clear that the Orioles don’t play in the $200MM+ pitching market.  I think Burnes gets $250MM+ with opt-outs.  I don’t think resigning Burnes has ever really been a consideration for Elias.

[OriolesMagic83]

Did Burnes say anything after the game last night about what happened?

[interloper]

17 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

Did Burnes say anything after the game last night about what happened?

"Let up more runs than I usually do."

[OriolesMagic83]

13 minutes ago, interloper said:

"Let up more runs than I usually do."

MOFW

[EddeeEddee]

20 hours ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

There's no way I go more than three years for Burnes. I haven't looked at the free agent market, but maybe the Orioles go after another pitcher who won't be as costly or trade for one.

The higher quality yet maybe less costly free agents are all either old (Scherezer, Verlander, Morton, Eovaldi), attempting to rebound from major injuries (Fried, Buhler, Bieber -- and of course John Means), or some combination of the two (Kershaw).  

Two high end free agents that will be costly should they choose to opt out of current contracts are Blake Snell and Gerrit Cole.  I'm thinking Cole might not opt out while Snell almost certainly will.  

There are several players with options and opt outs and other clauses who may or may not become available -- such as Jordan Montgomery.

No one else close to Burnes' level will be available as a free agent, unless you think Jack Flaherty is an ace again all of a sudden.  There will be some decent middle to back end starter types available like Jose Quintana, Anthony DeSclafini, Michael Lorenzen or Kyle Gibson.

High end starting pitching will cost a lot this offseason --- whether in dollars or prospects.

[Say O!]

44 minutes ago, EddeeEddee said:

The higher quality yet maybe less costly free agents are all either old (Scherezer, Verlander, Morton, Eovaldi), attempting to rebound from major injuries (Fried, Buhler, Bieber -- and of course John Means), or some combination of the two (Kershaw).  

Two high end free agents that will be costly should they choose to opt out of current contracts are Blake Snell and Gerrit Cole.  I'm thinking Cole might not opt out while Snell almost certainly will.  

There are several players with options and opt outs and other clauses who may or may not become available -- such as Jordan Montgomery.

No one else close to Burnes' level will be available as a free agent, unless you think Jack Flaherty is an ace again all of a sudden.  There will be some decent middle to back end starter types available like Jose Quintana, Anthony DeSclafini, Michael Lorenzen or Kyle Gibson.

High end starting pitching will cost a lot this offseason --- whether in dollars or prospects.

Cole contract is such that NYY can add additional year on the end and therefore cannot opt-out this offseason.  And Montgomery may not choose to opt-out given performance this season.  I think Snell for sure opt-outs, and like last offseason, it will be interesting to see how Boras plays both Snell and Burnes…certainly MO has been to wait and delay thru offseason.

I actually don’t mind going shorter term deal for Kikuchi.  And then hope Bradish is ready for postseason ball.

Edited August 18 by Say O!

[OriolesMagic83]

I would like Fried as a cheaper alternative to Burnes.  Do you think he could be signed for around 5 years/$150 mill?  I'm thinking Burnes is going to command $300 mill contract and Elias isn't going there. 

[bpilktree67]

7 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

I would like Fried as a cheaper alternative to Burnes.  Do you think he could be signed for around 5 years/$150 mill?  I'm thinking Burnes is going to command $300 mill contract and Elias isn't going there. 

Burnes won’t get 300 million.  Teams are going to start pushing back against these long contracts as they just don’t work unless you are super spender.  I think he gets six years in 210 million to 7 years at 250 as a max offer.  Fried probably gets 5- for 150 maybe 6 175.

[Roll Tide]

6 hours ago, interloper said:

"Let up more runs than I usually do."

It also would’ve been the case if he was pulled after giving up 4. He clearly didn’t have it but the later 4 runs is on Hyde. 

[Just Regular]

PitcherList's Nick Pollack had this sticky stuff split observation on the cutter since the 2021 season for the ages.    Who knows if Alex Cora had a cue for his bats, and we'll see him against the Astros next for more data.

For your fantasy squads, note that his cutter went 0/40 whiffs. Sticky stuff helped in 2021, but that pitch held a 17%+ SwStr in 2021. It’s down to 9% this year. Recalibrate your idea of Burnes.

[Roll Tide]

16 hours ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

MOFW

Don’t know what this means except I’m sure there is some profanity involved. He has a bad outing .. what do you expect him to say. Hey …how about my manager kept me in too long and the cost was a lost game? Can’t do that he’s a professional. I think Burnes ends up 5-6 x $30. If that’s the case Rubenstein should be all in. I just don’t see anyone going 200 plus. I think the decreased K/9 could work in the Orioles favor. And he’s proven he can get guys out without being K Reliant. I’ll take a sub 3 era (before the other night) for the next 3-5 years. He’s solid, a bulldog , and a good guy.

[Warehouse]

14 hours ago, bpilktree67 said:

Burnes won’t get 300 million.  Teams are going to start pushing back against these long contracts as they just don’t work unless you are super spender.  I think he gets six years in 210 million to 7 years at 250 as a max offer.  Fried probably gets 5- for 150 maybe 6 175.

I think he gets $224M for 7 years ($32MM AAV) with a club option for 8th year at $35MM.  Opt out after 4 years that can be voided if club guarantees 8th year.

Something like that.  I don’t think Elias goes for that but it might make sense for Mets or Red Sox.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

13 minutes ago, Warehouse said:

I think he gets $224M for 7 years ($32MM AAV) with a club option for 8th year at $35MM.  Opt out after 4 years that can be voided if club guarantees 8th year.

Something like that.  I don’t think Elias goes for that but it might make sense for Mets or Red Sox.

If Burnes gets that on the free agent market you take the comp pick and let him walk. The back half of that contract is going to look really ugly as Burnes declines.

[Roll Tide]