Fangraphs Analysis on Holliday Demotion

[Chavez Ravine]

I think another factor in the delay is to have a reserve of flesh blood into what is a meat grinder of a season. Let him AAA and chill for a bit, it will lesson his overall season strain. And when he comes up it will be like we traded for the missing piece.

 

[survivedc]

Anybody else getting tired of the "Sigbot" jokes?

[btdart20]

 

51 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

But I know what you mean.

This is compl out of character.  Respond with a song if you're safe and a meme of your OH bestie if not.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

 

This is compl out of character.  Respond with a song if you're safe and a meme of your OH bestie if not.

 

[Can_of_corn]

I'd like to apologize for that third one, I took the joke a bit too far. 

[btdart20]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'd like to apologize for that third one, I took the joke a bit too far. 

Glad you're OK! 

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, btdart20 said:

Glad you're OK! 

I am curious who my OH bestie is referring to?

[btdart20]

11 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I am curious who my OH bestie is referring to?

I was curious myself

[Hallas]

I thought that the draft pick compensation combined with the fact that we lose the extra year of control because of ROY voting makes service time manipulation a silly reason, and I think this article reinforces that.

 

To me the only explanation that makes sense is that they legitimately think that he needs a few more at bats in the minors, and they're willing to re-evaluate him before 4/10, which is the cutoff to add him and still have him accrue the necessary 172 days of service time to qualify for PPI.  At this point I think you have to call him up on 4/10 if he's still OPSing north of 1.000 at that point, especially considering he hasn't really K'd much, and he hasn't had any issues with his contact quality.

Edited April 5 by Hallas

[waroriole]

8 hours ago, Hallas said:

I thought that the draft pick compensation combined with the fact that we lose the extra year of control because of ROY voting makes service time manipulation a silly reason, and I think this article reinforces that.

 

To me the only explanation that makes sense is that they legitimately think that he needs a few more at bats in the minors, and they're willing to re-evaluate him before 4/10, which is the cutoff to add him and still have him accrue the necessary 172 days of service time to qualify for PPI.  At this point I think you have to call him up on 4/10 if he's still OPSing north of 1.000 at that point, especially considering he hasn't really K'd much, and he hasn't had any issues with his contact quality.

If it were Top 5 ROY, I think you’d see less hesitancy. Another very real concern is that you put Holliday on the OD roster, and he’s solid but not eye popping this year. He is better than any alternative we have, but you lose an extra year of control, and a shot at a good draft pick, because of a good rookie class this year. 

[Moose Milligan]

18 hours ago, NashLumber said:

Easy to follow at first, but then I got lost in the weeds. Maybe someone else will have a clearer interpretation. Thanks for this, though. 

Their writers are insufferable to read.  I couldn't make it past the 4th or 5th paragraph.

[Jim'sKid26]

15 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

I am curious who my OH bestie is referring to?

So am I.....

[byrdz]

Isn’t it slightly hyperbolic to say he was “demoted”? Don’t you first have to make the team for that to happen? maybe semantics

[baltfan]

My opinion is that Elias cannot stand the idea that he can't get anything for Mateo or Urias whom he views as actual valuable players.  Accordingly, he sent Holliday down vs. releasing one of them.  I know that they have Kemp, but it is those two that would be keeping Holliday on the bench to increase their trade value.  I also do think they don't love Holliday's defense at second at the moment and defense is very important to them.

[Hallas]

8 hours ago, waroriole said:

If it were Top 5 ROY, I think you’d see less hesitancy. Another very real concern is that you put Holliday on the OD roster, and he’s solid but not eye popping this year. He is better than any alternative we have, but you lose an extra year of control, and a shot at a good draft pick, because of a good rookie class this year. 

The past 2 years, where we had multiple rookies that put up 5+ WAR seasons, is a bit unusual.  The path for him to accrue a full seasons worth if service time and not be a plausible ROY candidate is pretty narrow. (Play well enough to not get demoted but still undershoot projections, or get injured too late in the year to option him once he finishes rehab.)  IMO if he puts up at least 2 WAR he will have a decent shot at finishing top-2.  If he is on pace for less than that then I would expect Elias to send him down for a month or so.

 

If he's better than all the other options... then well, we lose a year of service time in 2030 in exchange for production now, when we're probably in a pennant race.  That seems like a fair tradeoff.

Edited April 5 by Hallas