Enrique Bradfield Jr. 2024

[sportsfan8703]

On 7/26/2024 at 2:15 AM, Frobby said:

I never expected Bradfield to develop a lot of power.  I’d call his season mildly disappointing so far (.279/.351/.375) but not a disaster.   Honesty, with one pretty strong month his numbers could be right where I would have expected.  

I doubt the O’s are looking to unload Bradfield just because Honeycutt may soon be signed, but he’s certainly not an untouchable if another team wants him as part of a package in exchange for something we need this year.  
 

Maybe this is overly simplistic and anyone is free to disagree, but just by looking at all factors at each stop along the way I’d rank the hitting environments from best to worst as,

1. Aberdeen - anyone any good always has a .800-.900+ OPS there. 

2. Bowie - .750 - .850 OPS

3. Delmarva - 700 - .800 OPS

We never really have our hitting prospects in Delmarva too long for me to even make a general judgement. 

Those are what I would call “good” OPS ranges for each level based on recent history. Just my opinion. 

Edited July 29 by sportsfan8703

[Can_of_corn]

Minor league park factors are a thing.

This list cuts off behind a paywall but will give you an idea.

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/minor-league-baseball-park-factors-2023/

[Frobby]

46 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Maybe this is overly simplistic and anyone is free to disagree, but just by looking at all factors at each stop along the way I’d rank the hitting environments from best to worst as,

1. Aberdeen - anyone any good always has a .800-.900+ OPS there. 

2. Bowie - .750 - .850 OPS

3. Aberdeen - .700 - .800 OPS

We never really have our hitting prospects in Delmarva too long for me to even make a general judgement. 

Those are what I would call “good” OPS ranges for each level based on recent history. Just my opinion. 

You’ve got Aberdeen listed twice.  Is one of those supposed to be Delmarva or Norfolk?

[sportsfan8703]

EBJ has his OPS up to .741 with his 50th SB. With Eztel gone that opens up CF for EBJ in Bowie. We could then get a look at Josenberger more in CF in Aberdeen. 

Maybe they wait till after the deadline to see if he is traded. There might be some promotions after that for the whole org. 

[Frobby]

56 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

EBJ has his OPS up to .741 with his 50th SB. With Eztel gone that opens up CF for EBJ in Bowie. We could then get a look at Josenberger more in CF in Aberdeen. 

Maybe they wait till after the deadline to see if he is traded. There might be some promotions after that for the whole org. 

Etzel only played CF one-third of the time at Bowie, so it’s not like they need another CF.  Fabian has made 48 starts there and Beavers has made 17.  Even so, I do think a promotion is possible.  

[Moose Milligan]

Are you guys happy with what EBJ has shown in his first full pro season?

[glenn__davis]

Happy? Probably not.  I would have loved it if he'd forced his way to Bowie by now.

Satisfied? Yes 

[Frobby]

8 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Are you guys happy with what EBJ has shown in his first full pro season?

I’m mildly disappointed.  But only mildly.  One thing we haven’t talked about much is how often he scores once he’s on base.  59 runs in 69 games is a very hefty total - it projects to 139 runs over a 162-game season.  And it’s not because he has Ruth and Gehrig batting behind him.  So even though his .357 OBP is a little below what I’d hoped (.380ish), he’s putting runs on the board at a prodigious rate due to his baserunning.  There’s only 3 players in the league who’ve scored more runs than Bradfield, and each of them has played 14-19 more games than he has.  He’s tied for 3rd in the org in runs scored, behind only Holliday and Norby (and tied with Mayo).  

 

[RZNJ]

30 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Are you guys happy with what EBJ has shown in his first full pro season?

The question is, what were your expectations?   He's pretty much doing what I expected except for not walking much.   He barely hit over .300 in college.  Considering what he did in college, the average and extra bases are pretty good.   I expected less caught stealing too.  Mild disappointment. 

Now, I hoped he'd hit over .300, have an OBP around .400, hit 10 HR and go about 90/100 in stolen bases.

[sportsfan8703]

43 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Are you guys happy with what EBJ has shown in his first full pro season?

I'm happy.  He got off to a rough start, but has put together some good months.  Aberdeen always is the toughest OPS stop for our hitting prospects it seems.  

I guess we'll find out what is value is if he's traded.  

[Moose Milligan]

7 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

The question is, what were your expectations?    

I didn't really have any hard set expectations...IMO, it's just so hard to look at guys who are drafted in the 10-20 range (or past that) in the first round and set expectations on what they should be able to do.  It's different than the NFL where you think practically anyone who's picked in the first round should come in and start in their first year...we've been so used to picking in the top 5, top 10...it's easier to have some sort of expectations for an Adley Rutschman or a Jackson Holliday compared to EBJ.

That said, looking at the slash lines and seeing what clips I've seen of him...I'm decently happy with him.  I could have easily seen a scenario with him just washing out right away, struggling to hit .220 and the OBP not cracking .300.  

But .281/.357. is fine and I like that separation between the batting average and the OBP.  I'm alright with not hitting for power as long as he's getting on base and using his speed.  Seems like to your point that he's been caught stealing a bit more than you'd like...I think he's just probably getting used to the pro-game a little bit and working on SB technique.  I'm assuming in college for him he didn't have to have refined techniques because no one could compete with his speed...here, it's different and that's probably an adjustment of sorts.

@Frobbywanted an OBP  in the .380 range, you wanted over .400.  I obviously would have liked to have seen that, too, but it seems like he's gotten better as the season has gone on, which is a good sign.  

Really curious to see how he handles Bowie, that'll really tell us something.  For now, I'm decently happy with where he is but there's certainly room for improvement.   That said, I'm also not ready to plug him into any future plans for the big leagues the way we do for Basallo, Mayo, Holliday and others.

[Moose Milligan]

7 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

 

I guess we'll find out what is value is if he's traded.  

He's not untouchable for me, but if he's traded it'd have to be for someone really good.

[Ohfan67]

45 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Are you guys happy with what EBJ has shown in his first full pro season?

Put it this way, there's a giant drop-off in following EBJ versus almost all of the O's recent high draft picks. The stolen base numbers are fun, but the rest of his game is super boring to follow if you don't get to watch the games. So, in comparison to other recent high draft picks he's disappointing/generating boring stats. Putting perception/recency bias aside, all of his numbers except power are actually pretty darn good. It would be interesting to know what the Orioles expected from EBJ this season. The power numbers are disappointing, but realistically probably what we should have expected. Elias has basically gotten the guy he drafted IMO...fast, potentially a plus defender and base stealer, but unlikely to have enough power to have a long career as a regular. So for me his perfomance/stats (I have never seen the guy play a game!) are pretty much what should have been expected, but disappointing when compared to other recent Oriole high picks, etc., and what I would hope the O's would get from a first rounder. 

[Alasdaire]

A minor league player whose primary skills don't show up in the typical batting metrics--ie elite defense and baserunning--is always at risk of feeling like a disappointment. Even if you try to remind yourself they're there, those skills are much more apparent when they're on the major league team and you can see how much they terrorize opposing pitchers on the base path and bail out your own pitchers defensively.

Mullins has an OBP of .265 right now; his career OBP is .316. If Bradfield can meet/exceed that rate at reaching base, I think he is a better player than Cedric even if he doesn't come close to Cedric's career .425 slugging (Mullins is slugging .394 this year). I don't think EBJ has done anything in the minors to suggest he can't get on base at that rate, so I'm fine with how he's doing.

[Say O!]

5 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

I didn't really have any hard set expectations...IMO, it's just so hard to look at guys who are drafted in the 10-20 range (or past that) in the first round and set expectations on what they should be able to do.  It's different than the NFL where you think practically anyone who's picked in the first round should come in and start in their first year...we've been so used to picking in the top 5, top 10...it's easier to have some sort of expectations for an Adley Rutschman or a Jackson Holliday compared to EBJ.

That said, looking at the slash lines and seeing what clips I've seen of him...I'm decently happy with him.  I could have easily seen a scenario with him just washing out right away, struggling to hit .220 and the OBP not cracking .300.  

But .281/.357. is fine and I like that separation between the batting average and the OBP.  I'm alright with not hitting for power as long as he's getting on base and using his speed.  Seems like to your point that he's been caught stealing a bit more than you'd like...I think he's just probably getting used to the pro-game a little bit and working on SB technique.  I'm assuming in college for him he didn't have to have refined techniques because no one could compete with his speed...here, it's different and that's probably an adjustment of sorts.

@Frobbywanted an OBP  in the .380 range, you wanted over .400.  I obviously would have liked to have seen that, too, but it seems like he's gotten better as the season has gone on, which is a good sign.  

Really curious to see how he handles Bowie, that'll really tell us something.  For now, I'm decently happy with where he is but there's certainly room for improvement.   That said, I'm also not ready to plug him into any future plans for the big leagues the way we do for Basallo, Mayo, Holliday and others.

This is very well said.  I 100% agree with the bolded (my emphasis).  He does not appear to be a bust and I am comfortable with his MiLB line, particularly if he is working thru swing changes/trying to tap into more pull side power.