Jud Fabian, 2024

[interloper]

Yeah I like Fabian as a McKenna-like, with maybe more upside. I'd be fine with that result. 

[Tony-OH]

4 hours ago, RZNJ said:

Hate to say this but unless Fabian makes significant changes I think he tops out as a AAAA up and down guy similar to McKenna.   He is a mistake hitter to the extreme.  Give him a fastball middle in to middle away or a hanger and he can take it out.  The power is real and he doesn’t over swing to get to it.   That’s the good news. But the 23 walks to 70 strikeouts, the 7 doubles in 60 games, and the sub .250 average all point to a guy who’s just not a very good hitter.  

If any team wants him back as part of a trade package I wouldn’t hesitate to include him.

I'm not sure I'm quite as down on him as you appear to be, but I agree, he still has some holes in his offensive that need to be sure up. He would be a good fit as a 4th outfielder if he's able to hit well enough at the major league level. 

[zweem]

Think he is, at least, a Siri level player.

[Frobby]

It so happens that right now Jud Fabian has one fewer PA at AA this year than he had last year.   Here’s a comparison.

2023: 288 PA, 238 AB, 36 R, 42 H, 6 2B, 1 3B, 15 HR, 31 RBI, 12 SB, 2 CS, 44 BB, 108 K’s, .177/.314/.399, 37.5% K rate, 15.3% BB rate.

2024: 287 PA, 248 AB, 39 R, 56 H, 8 2B, 1 3B, 13 HR, 38 RBi, 8 SB, 3 CS, 27 BB, 82 K’s, .226/.309/.423, 28.6% K rate, 9.4% BB rate.  

Obviously the K rate is way down and consequently the BA is way up, but OBP actually has declined slightly due to a much lower BB rate.  This makes me wonder if Fabian has actually reduced his percentage of swinging strikes, or if he’s just swinging more often.

Per Fangraphs, at Bowie Fabian has increased his line drive rate from 13.9% to 18.9%, while his fly ball rate has dropped from 54.6% to 49.1%.  More strikingly, his pull percentage has dropped from 59.5% to 45.1% while his opposite field rate has increased from 15.3.% to 27.2%.   

All of that suggests some pretty radical changes to Fabian’s swing and approach, but a pretty modest change in bottom line results (98 wRC+ to 105 wRC+).   Fabian is in a 10-game slump (.103/.217/.205), so his “modest” improvement would have looked a lot better if I’d done this comparison before his recent slide.   Hopefully he will get back on track shortly.   

 

[Warehouse]

16 hours ago, Frobby said:

It so happens that right now Jud Fabian has one fewer PA at AA this year than he had last year.   Here’s a comparison.

2023: 288 PA, 238 AB, 36 R, 42 H, 6 2B, 1 3B, 15 HR, 31 RBI, 12 SB, 2 CS, 44 BB, 108 K’s, .177/.314/.399, 37.5% K rate, 15.3% BB rate.

2024: 287 PA, 248 AB, 39 R, 56 H, 8 2B, 1 3B, 13 HR, 38 RBi, 8 SB, 3 CS, 27 BB, 82 K’s, .226/.309/.423, 28.6% K rate, 9.4% BB rate.  

Obviously the K rate is way down and consequently the BA is way up, but OBP actually has declined slightly due to a much lower BB rate.  This makes me wonder if Fabian has actually reduced his percentage of swinging strikes, or if he’s just swinging more often.

Per Fangraphs, at Bowie Fabian has increased his line drive rate from 13.9% to 18.9%, while his fly ball rate has dropped from 54.6% to 49.1%.  More strikingly, his pull percentage has dropped from 59.5% to 45.1% while his opposite field rate has increased from 15.3.% to 27.2%.   

All of that suggests some pretty radical changes to Fabian’s swing and approach, but a pretty modest change in bottom line results (98 wRC+ to 105 wRC+).   Fabian is in a 10-game slump (.103/.217/.205), so his “modest” improvement would have looked a lot better if I’d done this comparison before his recent slide.   Hopefully he will get back on track shortly.   

 

His SwStr% dropped from 16.7% last year to 15.6% this year. 

[Frobby]

53 minutes ago, Warehouse said:

His SwStr% dropped from 16.7% last year to 15.6% this year. 

Thanks.  Where do you get that?

[Warehouse]

35 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Thanks.  Where do you get that?

Fangraphs MILB leaderboard

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/minor-league?pos=all&level=2&lg=&stats=bat&qual=40&type=2&team=&season=2024&seasonEnd=2024&org=2&ind=0&splitTeam=false&players=&sort=18,1&filter=
 

Just note that SwStr% for the DSL and FCL tends not to be accurate.  In game tracking, it will often show a batter striking out on 3 swinging strikes regardless of how many pitches there were in the AB. This carries over the SwStr%. As a result, you’ll often see extremely high SwStr% for these leagues and sometimes extremely low rates.

Edited July 6 by Warehouse

[emmett16]

HR #16.  Modest improvement since Frobbys breakdown on 7/5. 

[Tony-OH]

On 7/6/2024 at 10:56 AM, Warehouse said:

Fangraphs MILB leaderboard

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/minor-league?pos=all&level=2&lg=&stats=bat&qual=40&type=2&team=&season=2024&seasonEnd=2024&org=2&ind=0&splitTeam=false&players=&sort=18,1&filter=
 

Just note that SwStr% for the DSL and FCL tends not to be accurate.  In game tracking, it will often show a batter striking out on 3 swinging strikes regardless of how many pitches there were in the AB. This carries over the SwStr%. As a result, you’ll often see extremely high SwStr% for these leagues and sometimes extremely low rates.

I honestly didn't know that about the DSL SwStr%. Makes sense when two of the players had zero strikeouts, that had a 0% SwStr% which had to be impossible.

[CaptainRedbeard]

Of Fabian’s 361 PAs this year, only 79 are against LHP (and his numbers are predictably better against LHP).

Fabian is pretty much just a righty 4th OF prospect at this point, but I think a good one and one that will be a really good fit for this roster if he pans out (as a righty bat, with plus LF/RF defense & CF flexibility). Now that Hays is gone, Slater is in that role and it’s an open question who it will be in 2025. It won’t be Fabian at this rate, but he’s rule 5 eligible Dec 2025 and it could be him in 2026.

I’m impatient to see Fabian in AAA, particularly if his future utility will be in facing LHP and he’s not seeing any in AA.

[seak05]

4 hours ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

Of Fabian’s 361 PAs this year, only 79 are against LHP (and his numbers are predictably better against LHP).

Fabian is pretty much just a righty 4th OF prospect at this point, but I think a good one and one that will be a really good fit for this roster if he pans out (as a righty bat, with plus LF/RF defense & CF flexibility). Now that Hays is gone, Slater is in that role and it’s an open question who it will be in 2025. It won’t be Fabian at this rate, but he’s rule 5 eligible Dec 2025 and it could be him in 2026.

I’m impatient to see Fabian in AAA, particularly if his future utility will be in facing LHP and he’s not seeing any in AA.

This is probably a good summary. A right handed hitting outfielder, especially one who can handle LF at Camden Yards and some CF is a real hole on this team. Obviously if they were above avg offensively against both left handed and right handers that would be better.

[Cuellar35]

He's leading the league in HR.  It's a start!

[Frobby]

19 hours ago, Cuellar35 said:

He's leading the league in HR.  It's a start!

Interesting fact that I didn’t know.   He recently passed a former Yankees prospect, Augustin Ramirez, who hit 16 in 58 games before being promoted, and then later traded to Miami in the Chisholm deal.  

[OriolesUpAndDowns]

He is also one of the rare RH hitters and left handed throwers.  ChatGPT is telling me there gave been between 50-60 in MLB history.  With Rickey Henderson being the most famous.  

[sportsfan8703]

I’m guessing the news will be out shortly that he’s going to AAA, with the promotions of the Aberdeen guys.