The Os will be in the playoffs

[Frobby]

7 minutes ago, maybenxtyr said:

If you don't think they are using McCann as an extra right handed bat against lefties, then I guess we are watching something different.

What are you trying to say?  Adley isn’t going to catch every day.  Someone has to catch when he doesn’t.  The O’s start McCann either when a LHP is starting, or when there’s a day game following a night game.  That has him catching 40% of the time.   That’s about where the Orioles want him — last year it was 33%, and my guess is he’ll end up closer to there.  

[LTO's]

14 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

There is no reason to trade for a RH bat because you aren’t likely to get anyone that is more of a help than Mayo.

I like Mayo and hope/expect he'll be up at some point but if the Orioles really make acquiring a RH bat a priority at the deadline they can definitely get someone who is more help than Mayo this year.

[Safelykept]

9 minutes ago, maybenxtyr said:

If you don't think they are using McCann as an extra right handed bat against lefties, then I guess we are watching something different.

What are you watching? All hes done is play catcher has he DH or played 1B? How many times has he pinch hit? Whats with this extra bat against lefties? Hes a backup catcher that bats RH, would seem to make sense that when he started it would against A LH, which there were plenty of early on.

[Safelykept]

7 minutes ago, Frobby said:

What are you trying to say?  Adley isn’t going to catch every day.  Someone has to catch when he doesn’t.  The O’s start McCann either when a LHP is starting, or when there’s a day game following a night game.  That has him catching 40% of the time.   That’s about where the Orioles want him — last year it was 33%, and my guess is he’ll end up closer to there.  

Agree

 

8 minutes ago, Frobby said:

What are you trying to say?  Adley isn’t going to catch every day.  Someone has to catch when he doesn’t.  The O’s start McCann either when a LHP is starting, or when there’s a day game following a night game.  That has him catching 40% of the time.   That’s about where the Orioles want him — last year it was 33%, and my guess is he’ll end up closer to there.  

Agree probably will drift down to 33%, unless they have big plans for Adley, which I hope they do. I know you understand what that means, wonder if that poster we've been responding to does. 

[Sports Guy]

33 minutes ago, Matt Bennett said:

Right. But May 2023 is also an outlier. Usually outliers don't re-occur. Put them together and you get typical Jorge Mateo.

Jorge Mateo vs. LHP since joining the Orioles back in 2021: 103 wRC+. With great defense. That's a contributor. 

He's just being asked to do something he's not. He should not be starting vs. RHP.  

I didn’t say he’s not a contributor. You are arguing something no one else is. But the talk of will Holliday be a better option is lunacy.

[Sports Guy]

9 minutes ago, LTO's said:

I like Mayo and hope/expect he'll be up at some point but if the Orioles really make acquiring a RH bat a priority at the deadline they can definitely get someone who is more help than Mayo this year.

I don’t think you know what definitely means

[Matt Bennett]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

I didn’t say he’s not a contributor. You are arguing something no one else is. But the talk of will Holliday be a better option is lunacy.

Mateo shouldn't be starting against RHP. I expect Holliday to get another chance and I'm expecting much better results.

But I think you tried to paint Mateo as not even an effective platooner, with his splits being propped up by April 2023. I think the numbers show that isn't the case. Pretty misguided to exclude the positive outlier and include the negative outlier.

[Safelykept]

4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I don’t think you know what definitely means

Who Could?

[Sports Guy]

15 minutes ago, Matt Bennett said:

Mateo shouldn't be starting against RHP. I expect Holliday to get another chance and I'm expecting much better results.

But I think you tried to paint Mateo as not even an effective platooner, with his splits being propped up by April 2023. I think the numbers show that isn't the case. Pretty misguided to exclude the positive outlier and include the negative outlier.

Prior to 2023, the best season he had vs lefties was a 664 OPS.

April of 2023 saw him have a huge month. He was terrible vs lefties the rest of the year.

In 42 at bats this year, he is off to a good start.  So, the early start to this year and April of last year are driving his numbers.  The rest of his career, he has been awful.

Now, all of these things are a SSS and maybe what we saw in April and what we are seeing now shows that he can do it and that expecting a 100ish OpS+ is fine going forward.

But he doesn’t have a place on this team doing that because none of the positions he plays will call for him to get playing time because those players are everyday guys.

The exception to this will be if he can handle CF.  If he can, I could see something being worked out there.

[Matt Bennett]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Prior to 2023, the best season he had vs lefties was a 664 OPS.

Sure but 2023 and 2024 are the most relevant data points in this conversation. And again, 103 wRC+ against LHP with the Orioles. 

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

He was terrible vs lefties the rest of the year.

But this isn't really true. He had a bad month of May. From June 1st on: 109 wRC+. That's excluding his 4 for 5 in the playoffs too, all against LHP. To recap:

Tenure with Orioles (2021-2024) against LHP: good

2023 Orioles against LHP: good

2024 Orioles against LHP: really good

Since May 1st 2023 against LHP: good (still above league average without the positive outlier!)

Since June 1st 2023 against LHP: even better 

You just picked a purposeful stretch from May 1st 2023 to the end of the 2023 that excludes his positive outlier and includes his negative outlier to make a point. 

 

 

 

[Hank Scorpio]

11 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Prior to 2023, the best season he had vs lefties was a 664 OPS.

April of 2023 saw him have a huge month. He was terrible vs lefties the rest of the year.

In 42 at bats this year, he is off to a good start.  So, the early start to this year and April of last year are driving his numbers.  The rest of his career, he has been awful.

Now, all of these things are a SSS and maybe what we saw in April and what we are seeing now shows that he can do it and that expecting a 100ish OpS+ is fine going forward.

But he doesn’t have a place on this team doing that because none of the positions he plays will call for him to get playing time because those players are everyday guys.

The exception to this will be if he can handle CF.  If he can, I could see something being worked out there.

This is key, IMO. But I don't think the team believes in that, unfortunately. If they did we would have seen him out there more to this point given Mullins' shortcomings combined with his ability to hit lefties. 

 

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, Matt Bennett said:

Sure but 2023 and 2024 are the most relevant data points in this conversation. And again, 103 wRC+ against LHP with the Orioles. 

But this isn't really true. He had a bad month of May. From June 1st on: 109 wRC+. That's excluding his 4 for 5 in the playoffs too, all against LHP. To recap:

Tenure with Orioles (2021-2024) against LHP: good

2023 Orioles against LHP: good

2024 Orioles against LHP: really good

Since May 1st 2023 against LHP: good (still above league average without the positive outlier!)

Since June 1st 2023 against LHP: even better 

You just picked a purposeful stretch from May 1st 2023 to the end of the 2023 that excludes his positive outlier and includes his negative outlier to make a point. 

 

 

 

Not really.  I just remember seeing numbers last year that after April, he wasn’t good.  I’m not sure what the break downs are for splits by month.

[interloper]

Well now we know who to blame when the O's don't make the playoffs. 

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, interloper said:

Well now we know who to blame when the O's don't make the playoffs. 

Elias for not bringing back Frazier?

[btdart20]

Core for '24:  Adley, Mounty, O'Hearn, Gunnar, Westburg, Santa, Mullins, Cowser. 

* Hays is probably core.  But he's the RHH OF in flux.

Defensive role floor:  Mateo, McCann 

That leaves Urias and a bench bat.  That's just roster spots, not PAs.

Mayo and Holliday have to prove it before we count of them for the post-season.  We can win without them.  It's not a foregone conclusion that 2024 Holliday is better than 2024 Mateo.  

* Holliday and Mayo could be up for Urias and the bench bat.  Playing time would come from Mateo and Hays and an assortment of cannibalizing others/each other.  Possible but improbable.  Maybe both when the rosters expand, then see if we catch lightning. 

HKs profile is tantalizing in a DL Hall sort of way.  Big difference is the MOO bat vs. the high CSW% ceiling.  How does the Sigbot handicap that for a BP upgrade?

Agree with @Matt Bennett on Mateo.  Cherry-picking stats to fit a narrative misses a piece of the puzzle.  Let's not fall into an echo chamber thinking that Mateo isn't some type of contributor.  Mateo is all about risk management, a Sig specialty.  Mateo has been quite good defensively at 2B.  Our IF has to be pretty close to top-in-class for range.